It will actually be interesting if Tesla actually debuts a new product at the same time as competitors for once. Especially one with a market mostly determined by corporate purchases.
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The trick is if he knew and deliberately misled investors about the production goals. If it's deliberate manipulation of information then it seems to cross into the legal problems territory. I'm no expert, but from Gasparino on foxbiz his law enforcement sources say it's a high bar for prosecution. Law enforcement would have to prove with evidence that he knew it was impossible and lied to investors. I'm long Tesla via call options and stock, but I'd say it's very unlikely anything comes of this. It's just one of the last straws the shorts are grasping for. They lost the SEC fine/scare of ousting Musk as CEO, now they have pretty much lost the bankruptcy imminent/no profit argument - though they will keep arguing that the $35k version will never be profitable until proven otherwise by the sales...this DOJ scare attempt is about all they have left to repress the price. Also, in the US the SEC really is in charge of securities law...so I would be surprised if the FBI did too much.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You are comparing a 2011 car to a 2018 one ?
A good comparison would be the upcoming 60kwh model.
Sorry to interrupt the Freddy and Supercharger Discussion, but....
- TSLA Valuation - Another view
So, since we evaluated the Q3 from literally all technical sides (with plenty of insight),
one part lacks attention: Emotion!
To give you a feeling of how the personal TSLA experience and emotions can be, I'll try to
give a small view on the reactions a Tesla owner in Germany gets:
2013-2015 (before autumn):
Dieselgate wasn't there and everyone was looking up to Tesla-Owners like some cool Innovators saving the planet for everyone else. And most wished they had the money, or the will to by one, but kept driving their ICE cars.
This image changed dramatically
2016-2018:
1. Dieselgate happened and the lobby managed to change that good image of Tesla into a perpetrator to our life-status and even provoked a defiance by most people. Also today, when we get the first Diesel-ban laws in cities, the most people are still sympathize with big oil and car-makers, but to blame politics (Ignoring that the politics here tried to protect ICE-car-makers by any means). For sure an EV got far more out of their books, because they were evil now.
2. The outcome of news about the Tesla brand, or Elon Musk was dominated -like 80%- by negative opinion. Even if there was something good, the press either ignored it, or found a way to leave a negative taste after a read. Well Elon Musk did it's part 2018, feeding them 2018, but only to a minor stake.
To give you some examples, of how strangers adressed me:
2015:
"Wow nice car. Is it electric?"
"Oh a Tesla - Wow!! Can i have a look?"
(You know the excitement)
It slightly changed......
2018:
"You know, they are dirtier than ICE cars?"
"Oh a Telsa. I heard they are struggling."
So, while I consider myself a positive thinking guy, who tries to understand the feelings behind peoples motives, this can get under your skin if you hear to much of it. On a weak day, you might get anxious too and feel bad you're taking peoples work, or fear your service may fade one day (I had a Rover, when they closed their workshops in Germany, so I know).
But for me it is relatively easy to get my head straight again, because I have to valuate the risk of loosing invested money on that company, too. So i get informed as good as possible (Were else would you find a better place for this, than here?).
BUT I imply, that the wast majority of Tesla owners still read normal press and even more does the rest of the world - aka "the public"
(no we are not a part of them anymore).
To get to the point:
The public perception changes dramatically with that Q3 results and Q4 outlook!
Elon Musk's image changed back from super villain to the genius Inventor & CEO he always has been.
And with that, the Tesla image changed from a bankruptcy hell enterprise, to the next Amazon (but only better, because they have cool devices that are 10 years ahead of others and accidentally save the planet).
WHY IS THAT IMPORTANT?
Well, Tesla is hip again and so a lot more people will buy their goods (+shares)!
I have a feeling, that the picture I painted -more or less- fits to a bunch of other countries and so I strongly believe the demand will outpace the production not only for the next quarter, but from now on for at least a decade!
We should add this flow of money and interest to the evaluation of TSLA, even if you can't measure this in numbers.
So, from a long investors side, one couldn't be more comfortable being here, before the great majority hops in.
Thanks the TMC-members and Tesla supporters, who guided me through this year.
-----------------------------------------
A side note: While watching the "Model 3 Support | Navigate on Autopilot" video, i got this interesting recommendation:
Steve Jobs Introducing The iPhone At MacWorld 2007
Well yeah Tesla had the Model 3 presentation a while back. BUT Q3/2018 truly marks the iphone moment!
This will get clearer every quarter from now on.
Meanwhile our guerrilla trader Lang&Schwarz trades TSLA for 289,29€ = 330,51$
--------------------------------
Disclaimer: I am TSLA long, and can't read the future share price out of this.
- TSLA Valuation - Another view
So, since we evaluated the Q3 from literally all technical sides (with plenty of insight),
one part lacks attention: Emotion!
To give you a feeling of how the personal TSLA experience and emotions can be, I'll try to
give a small view on the reactions a Tesla owner in Germany gets:
2013-2015 (before autumn):
Dieselgate wasn't there and everyone was looking up to Tesla-Owners like some cool Innovators saving the planet for everyone else. And most wished they had the money, or the will to by one, but kept driving their ICE cars.
This image changed dramatically
2016-2018:
1. Dieselgate happened and the lobby managed to change that good image of Tesla into a perpetrator to our life-status and even provoked a defiance by most people. Also today, when we get the first Diesel-ban laws in cities, the most people are still sympathize with big oil and car-makers, but to blame politics (Ignoring that the politics here tried to protect ICE-car-makers by any means). For sure an EV got far more out of their books, because they were evil now.
2. The outcome of news about the Tesla brand, or Elon Musk was dominated -like 80%- by negative opinion. Even if there was something good, the press either ignored it, or found a way to leave a negative taste after a read. Well Elon Musk did it's part 2018, feeding them 2018, but only to a minor stake.
To give you some examples, of how strangers adressed me:
2015:
"Wow nice car. Is it electric?"
"Oh a Tesla - Wow!! Can i have a look?"
(You know the excitement)
It slightly changed......
2018:
"You know, they are dirtier than ICE cars?"
"Oh a Telsa. I heard they are struggling."
So, while I consider myself a positive thinking guy, who tries to understand the feelings behind peoples motives, this can get under your skin if you hear to much of it. On a weak day, you might get anxious too and feel bad you're taking peoples work, or fear your service may fade one day (I had a Rover, when they closed their workshops in Germany, so I know).
But for me it is relatively easy to get my head straight again, because I have to valuate the risk of loosing invested money on that company, too. So i get informed as good as possible (Were else would you find a better place for this, than here?).
BUT I imply, that the wast majority of Tesla owners still read normal press and even more does the rest of the world - aka "the public"
(no we are not a part of them anymore).
To get to the point:
The public perception changes dramatically with that Q3 results and Q4 outlook!
Elon Musk's image changed back from super villain to the genius Inventor & CEO he always has been.
And with that, the Tesla image changed from a bankruptcy hell enterprise, to the next Amazon (but only better, because they have cool devices that are 10 years ahead of others and accidentally save the planet).
WHY IS THAT IMPORTANT?
Well, Tesla is hip again and so a lot more people will buy their goods (+shares)!
I have a feeling, that the picture I painted -more or less- fits to a bunch of other countries and so I strongly believe the demand will outpace the production not only for the next quarter, but from now on for at least a decade!
We should add this flow of money and interest to the evaluation of TSLA, even if you can't measure this in numbers.
So, from a long investors side, one couldn't be more comfortable being here, before the great majority hops in.
Thanks the TMC-members and Tesla supporters, who guided me through this year.
-----------------------------------------
A side note: While watching the "Model 3 Support | Navigate on Autopilot" video, i got this interesting recommendation:
Steve Jobs Introducing The iPhone At MacWorld 2007
Well yeah Tesla had the Model 3 presentation a while back. BUT Q3/2018 truly marks the iphone moment!
This will get clearer every quarter from now on.
Meanwhile our guerrilla trader Lang&Schwarz trades TSLA for 289,29€ = 330,51$
--------------------------------
Disclaimer: I am TSLA long, and can't read the future share price out of this.
Thanks for posting this, hadn't seen anything about semi in awhile.
You know the exact mix of sales in Q3? I don't find 10k P3D sales unbelievable at all. Furthermore, there are probably other repercussions:
1. The shorts use this as proof of accounting fraud, suggest they Q3 numbers were cooked and Elon always intended to return $xx mil.
2. Assuming all owners don't request a refund, they will have to carry this as a liability on their balance sheet.
Long camping trip over without Any access.
You people really have to slow down a bit.
Best post is the "I'm smarter than you and I used to work in a traveling carnival guessing people's age guy/gal."
I flew with a gentleman years ago the was everything I wanted to be as a pilot. He was calm,professional,great judgment...just a pleasure to work with. When he retired the Company put out a little goodbye bio on him...WOW ...suffice to say he had flown many many missions in Vietnam including as a FAC and won too many citations for his bravery and service to list here. Yet he never once mentioned any of it to anyone he flew with.
The take away from this little story is ..The smart/courageous ones don't need to announce anything their actions do all the talking
I hope everyone had as nice a weekend as I did.
You people really have to slow down a bit.
Best post is the "I'm smarter than you and I used to work in a traveling carnival guessing people's age guy/gal."
I flew with a gentleman years ago the was everything I wanted to be as a pilot. He was calm,professional,great judgment...just a pleasure to work with. When he retired the Company put out a little goodbye bio on him...WOW ...suffice to say he had flown many many missions in Vietnam including as a FAC and won too many citations for his bravery and service to list here. Yet he never once mentioned any of it to anyone he flew with.
The take away from this little story is ..The smart/courageous ones don't need to announce anything their actions do all the talking
I hope everyone had as nice a weekend as I did.
The SEC has no say in how Tesla is run as a business. They can require limits on investor-related information, but they can’t require him to make customer-facing business decisions.
I haven't seen any concrete evidence of (2). Charging to full, maybe, but supercharging to 90% seems to be safe.
Ameliorate
Member
Sorry to interrupt the Freddy and Supercharger Discussion, but....
- TSLA Valuation - Another view
So, since we evaluated the Q3 from literally all technical sides (with plenty of insight),
one part lacks attention: Emotion!
To give you a feeling of how the personal TSLA experience and emotions can be, I'll try to
give a small view on the reactions a Tesla owner in Germany gets:
2013-2015 (before autumn):
Dieselgate wasn't there and everyone was looking up to Tesla-Owners like some cool Innovators saving the planet for everyone else. And most wished they had the money, or the will to by one, but kept driving their ICE cars.
This image changed dramatically
2016-2018:
1. Dieselgate happened and the lobby managed to change that good image of Tesla into a perpetrator to our life-status and even provoked a defiance by most people. Also today, when we get the first Diesel-ban laws in cities, the most people are still sympathize with big oil and car-makers, but to blame politics (Ignoring that the politics here tried to protect ICE-car-makers by any means). For sure an EV got far more out of their books, because they were evil now.
2. The outcome of news about the Tesla brand, or Elon Musk was dominated -like 80%- by negative opinion. Even if there was something good, the press either ignored it, or found a way to leave a negative taste after a read. Well Elon Musk did it's part 2018, feeding them 2018, but only to a minor stake.
To give you some examples, of how strangers adressed me:
2015:
"Wow nice car. Is it electric?"
"Oh a Tesla - Wow!! Can i have a look?"
(You know the excitement)
It slightly changed......
2018:
"You know, they are dirtier than ICE cars?"
"Oh a Telsa. I heard they are struggling."
So, while I consider myself a positive thinking guy, who tries to understand the feelings behind peoples motives, this can get under your skin if you hear to much of it. On a weak day, you might get anxious too and feel bad you're taking peoples work, or fear your service may fade one day (I had a Rover, when they closed their workshops in Germany, so I know).
But for me it is relatively easy to get my head straight again, because I have to valuate the risk of loosing invested money on that company, too. So i get informed as good as possible (Were else would you find a better place for this, than here?).
BUT I imply, that the wast majority of Tesla owners still read normal press and even more does the rest of the world - aka "the public"
(no we are not a part of them anymore).
To get to the point:
The public perception changes dramatically with that Q3 results and Q4 outlook!
Elon Musk's image changed back from super villain to the genius Inventor & CEO he always has been.
And with that, the Tesla image changed from a bankruptcy hell enterprise, to the next Amazon (but only better, because they have cool devices that are 10 years ahead of others and accidentally save the planet).
WHY IS THAT IMPORTANT?
Well, Tesla is hip again and so a lot more people will buy their goods (+shares)!
I have a feeling, that the picture I painted -more or less- fits to a bunch of other countries and so I strongly believe the demand will outpace the production not only for the next quarter, but from now on for at least a decade!
We should add this flow of money and interest to the evaluation of TSLA, even if you can't measure this in numbers.
So, from a long investors side, one couldn't be more comfortable being here, before the great majority hops in.
Thanks the TMC-members and Tesla supporters, who guided me through this year.
-----------------------------------------
A side note: While watching the "Model 3 Support | Navigate on Autopilot" video, i got this interesting recommendation:
Steve Jobs Introducing The iPhone At MacWorld 2007
Well yeah Tesla had the Model 3 presentation a while back. BUT Q3/2018 truly marks the iphone moment!
This will get clearer every quarter from now on.
Meanwhile our guerrilla trader Lang&Schwarz trades TSLA for 289,29€ = 330,51$
--------------------------------
Disclaimer: I am TSLA long, and can't read the future share price out of this.
:S The other day my boss urged me not to invest in TSLA because "they're already making cars in China wayy better and cheaper than Tesla's,Tesla is doomed, do your research" my jaw almost hit the floor. I assume he meant BYD but didn't even know a name. Wanted to ask him if he's read this thread for the last 4 years and put in 1000 hours of research. The tide will turn, they'll figure it out eventually (when the news tells them Tesla is a good company.....zzz) there are so many Tesla's cruising around locally now and they look really nice. Not everybody can be convinced but we'll keep fighting the good fight and tell anybody willing to listen.
Oh and to keep this relevant to market action
Don't know the effects on TSLA but Macro's still very questionable for the short term
Option_Sniper on Twitter
I personally would welcome a big dip and a macro recovery heading into Tesla's Q4, so I could get more TSLA. have my hedge in place!
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Tesla does intentionally limit max supercharging speed after a set number of DC charges, to prevent damage to the battery. So there is degradation in at least that way.
Drumheller
Active Member
I thought that only occurred with the 90 battery packs. I haven't seen a limit on my 85 pack and I've done quite a bit of supercharging over the past 30 months.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
In hindsight, they should have reduced the price of the Performance package by $3750, starting with cars delivered on January 1, 2019.
ZachF
Active Member
Doing some playing around with numbers, and here I've finally seen the "Amazon moment" that @Fact Checking talks about. It was more surprising honesty than what I'd thought it would be.
After finally getting over the hump of it's do-or-die Model 3 ramp, Tesla looks to be heading towards an operating cash flow of around 20% of revenues, but lets assume after next year, Tesla decides to grow at about 35% per year, and therefore it's OCF drops to an average 15% from having half of it's production mature at ~20%, and half in various stages of being ramped averaging ~10%. Lets also assume that at the end of 2019, it decides it's going to raise capital again, but only at a rate that causes debt to decline faster than revenue.
The result is that, starting in 2020, Tesla can afford a literal effing explosion in capex spending! Those numbers in yellow are equal to or greater than what the big boys (VW, Daimler, GM, Ford, etc) spend, only without huge chunks of it going to maintaining soon-to-be worthless ICE manufacturing capacity. It could spend more in a year easy, than it did during the entire 2016-2019 M3 ramp!
Tesla from 2017 to 2019 does a complete 180. It goes from a company with large relative amounts of debt, and poor operating cashflow, to a company with booku cashflow and little relative debt. Most other auto manufacturers have debt at 70-100% or revenue.
The "Debt interest" number is a theoretical number that applies a 6% interest to the debt. The OCF-DI is operating cashflow minus the cost to service debt, again a theoretical number just for a gauge of how much free money it can throw without increasing debt.
The big boys in the Auto industry generally have OCF in the $10-16 billion range, and if you take out debt service, much less. They also have little to no revenue growth, so they can't add much (Or any in the case of manufacturers with no growth) total debt without relative levels increasing... Tesla, on the other hand, can raise billions in capital and have relative debt levels decrease!
People in the launch business a few years ago used to talk about the "SpaceX Steamroller" as the investments they made in re-usable rockets finally started to pay off starting about 2017.... Next year I think we'll be starting to talk about the "Tesla steamroller."
After finally getting over the hump of it's do-or-die Model 3 ramp, Tesla looks to be heading towards an operating cash flow of around 20% of revenues, but lets assume after next year, Tesla decides to grow at about 35% per year, and therefore it's OCF drops to an average 15% from having half of it's production mature at ~20%, and half in various stages of being ramped averaging ~10%. Lets also assume that at the end of 2019, it decides it's going to raise capital again, but only at a rate that causes debt to decline faster than revenue.
The result is that, starting in 2020, Tesla can afford a literal effing explosion in capex spending! Those numbers in yellow are equal to or greater than what the big boys (VW, Daimler, GM, Ford, etc) spend, only without huge chunks of it going to maintaining soon-to-be worthless ICE manufacturing capacity. It could spend more in a year easy, than it did during the entire 2016-2019 M3 ramp!
Tesla from 2017 to 2019 does a complete 180. It goes from a company with large relative amounts of debt, and poor operating cashflow, to a company with booku cashflow and little relative debt. Most other auto manufacturers have debt at 70-100% or revenue.
The "Debt interest" number is a theoretical number that applies a 6% interest to the debt. The OCF-DI is operating cashflow minus the cost to service debt, again a theoretical number just for a gauge of how much free money it can throw without increasing debt.
The big boys in the Auto industry generally have OCF in the $10-16 billion range, and if you take out debt service, much less. They also have little to no revenue growth, so they can't add much (Or any in the case of manufacturers with no growth) total debt without relative levels increasing... Tesla, on the other hand, can raise billions in capital and have relative debt levels decrease!
People in the launch business a few years ago used to talk about the "SpaceX Steamroller" as the investments they made in re-usable rockets finally started to pay off starting about 2017.... Next year I think we'll be starting to talk about the "Tesla steamroller."
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TMC has impact in other ways. Without TMC, more than half of retail investors would have folded their positions based on the constant bashing of Tesla by MMD. With TMC, folks have figured out and got enlightened on how all this corruption works.
Also, TMC members are vocal on other social platforms, fighting the FUD.
A TMC contributor runs a website and has produced enough charts to cause Lefty to fold, along with holding other media accountable
So don't under estimate it's power
I’m not top 1% intelligence or anything but here’s my subpar analysis if you are interested in 5000 vs FUSC.
Factoring in
1.) Economic profit (value - opp cost of time x money)
2.) Extra transit miles for wear and tear + depreciation
3.) unforeseen wait times + maintenance
4.) potential of getting murdered
What happens when there aren’t enough superchargers : teslamotors
5.) increasing competition for chargers with fixed charging stations..
You gotta be out of your mind to forgo 5000 over FUSC.
What do you suggest if you live in an apartment where there is no home charging. I’m in that situation right now and I’m leaning towards the free supercharging.
True but its regulated in many cities in Germany by law and you cannot install a charger in Bavaria like that.
Here in the city of Munich it is simply not allowed. I expect though that with more EVs on the road in the future they are forced to find solutions. The lobby against it is strong though and the EV adoption still low. Right now they do not give you that option regardless if its your apartment or a rented one.
Lets all keep in mind the world is diverse and what may or may not work in Brussels or the US may not be the case elsewhere. Thats why I wrote " in my situation..."
You know with all the FUDs attacking Tesla, I have yet to hear a millenial giving me fox news talking points about TSLA. Teslas are for Millennials and younger anyways. The older baby boomers will never get it, watching mainstream media all day thinking the entire world is going to *sugar* due to lazy millennials. The younger millennials are thinking the world is going to *sugar* because too many old conservatives are deciding a fate that baby boomers may not even see the light of day when global warming truly hits the fan. So all the FUD doesn't matter, people who will be affected by global warming will be voting with their wallets because hoping the politicians to step in is useless.
It depends on the infrastructure where you live. I own an EV and don't use home-charging (or Supercharging - it's not a Tesla). I can charge for free at work, or (mainly) for free around town. You get quite used to charging in this way, and as long as you can leave the vehicle and do things you would normally do anyway it works just fine. Not everyone would have this luxury where they live, however.
ZachF
Active Member
The Irony is that there is not a generation in history that has done a better job of enjoying the fruits of modern civilization whilst pushing off the costs to everyone else better than what the baby boomers have done.
-High paying jobs for our children too capital intensive? Naw lets "invest" in McMansions and use the equity to buy foreign products and oil instead.
-McMansion investment turns out to not be so great? Bailouts and more tax cuts please.
-Infrastructure going to hell? Lets do the bare minimum to keep it from total collapse and give ourselves tax cuts instead.
-Underfunded pension obligations? Who cares, lets give ourselves more tax cuts.
-Ecological disasters? We'll be dead by then... DRILL BABY DRILL!
Then they leave their children with an ongoing ecological disaster, a gigantic debt pile, a bill for their unfunded pensions, decaying infrastructure, and outsourced the good jobs for quick bucks and wonder why their children can't afford the $500,000 McMansions they "invested" in.
EDIT: Sorry for the rant, and of course any boomer on TMC is an exeption...
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