I know this point is valid because I moved out of Apple and into Tesla myself some time ago. Opportunity cost is just too high for me to keep something like AAPL - even though it has a cheap valuation multiple.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Technically InsideEVs´ estimate is wrong unless they hit the exact number to a single car. It is an estimate after all. IMHO they should give a margin of error, but as long as they say it is an estimate, it is fine to publish IMHO.
Drumheller
Active Member
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
The ~32 million shares short interest is actually surprisingly accurate:
- Hedging by options market makers is simply a proxy for the current short position of dominantly short bets in the options market. I.e. this is just as representative of short exposure and losses.
- There's no real arbitrage plays on the convertibles yet: there were less than 10 trading days over $360, and even a very lucky $380-ish short against convertibles is only a 5% gain - quickly wiped out by holding a short position for years. The biggest chunk of convertibles are 2020/2021/2022 maturities - far out to hold for a 5% gain. The 2019 $920m convertibles might serve as cheap call option protection against real short positions - but those short positions will still be real, just capped at ~$360 plus holding costs until March 1 2019. Note that these are only ~2.5 million shares worth - and it's very, very unlikely that the majority of convertibles owners are using them to short TSLA. The obvious convertibles play is to use them as a long position for gains above $360, with a guaranteed principal amount. I believe this is the purpose Soros bought a chunk of them for. I also think that locking down profits on the convertibles will start happening in the $450 range - at that point it will be a very healthy +25% gain.
- I'm not sure I understand the personal liquidity line reference. The overwhelming majority of shorts on the market are hedge funds. While the veil of secrecy is seldom pierced, for a rare glimpse just look at the VW short squeeze litigation: 20+ billion dollars in losses and all the litigants appear to be NY hedge funds. Private banking and financing tend to be of a different class of psychology and typically won't go short the very, very high value individual they are financing. Think about the consequences if Elon finds out - I'm sure he'll be able to find another bank to bank with, and he won't execute that switch in Elon time. Think about the raised eyebrows of billionaire friends of Elon if they find out... I'm also pretty sure that Elon went the extra mile to assure that the stock he has put up as collateral doesn't get lent out or otherwise used against his company.
From podcast:
“Then we’ve got the Powerwall battery storage system. We’ve got the Powerpack, which is used for utilities on industrial scale. We’re gonna have some other exciting announcements on the stationary storage front. So when you —
This is within the homes?
I can’t talk more about it, but there’s —
Presumably.
We have a large product on the stationary storage side that I think will be very compelling for utility customers.”
“Then we’ve got the Powerwall battery storage system. We’ve got the Powerpack, which is used for utilities on industrial scale. We’re gonna have some other exciting announcements on the stationary storage front. So when you —
This is within the homes?
I can’t talk more about it, but there’s —
Presumably.
We have a large product on the stationary storage side that I think will be very compelling for utility customers.”
That would be the leaked megapack. Looking forward to that
Built into a shipping crate maybe?This is classic Elon, BTW
E.g.:Love his snark
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I'm not so sure:
- The VW short squeeze of 2008 was a very special event, and the violence and rate of the 5x rise in the stock price within essentially a 48 hour period is unlikely to be repeated by Tesla:
- The primary price dynamic in the VW short squeeze was that suddenly there were no willing sellers of the stock whatsoever - the stock price rose as high up as a single player (most likely Porsche) allowed it to go, where they squeezed out the shorts who were forced to cover by their banks.
- In the case of Tesla there are many, many longs, in competition with each other and with different price targets and investment horizons. This puts a natural limit on the rise of the TSLA stock price, even if shorts are forced to cover.
- Basically the main scenario under which I can see a VW style squeeze for Tesla is a similar event that restricts the availability or price of shares: a buyout or a take-private event. Those are mostly off the table now I think.
- What I think is more likely is a short squeeze more similar to the 2013 Tesla short squeeze: a surprise earnings report that shifted everyone's valuation of Tesla, a gradual rise in the share price up to a critical point of no return, a violent rise over a shorter period measured in days, and then consolidation and a long short squeeze, which lasted months. The later stages might not be that long this time, as there are more investors on board and the total universe of all investors who'll be on board TSLA in a year is probably lower than it was in 2013.
Last edited:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
That would be the leaked megapack. Looking forward to that
A large power module exactly fitting into a standard shipping container would have obvious advantages, and they'd also be the ideal disaster relief quick-reaction assets.
What would the capacity and mass of a container full of 2170 cells be?
"Well I can’t talk about the details, but it’s gonna be like a really futuristic-like cyberpunk, “Blade Runner” pickup truck. It’s gonna be awesome, it’s gonna be amazing. This will be heart-stopping. It stops my heart. It’s like, oh, it’s great." - So long as it's still durable if you beat it up, this tickles me pink
Exactly the thought. Stockpile them next to a port and you can have them wired into the grid anywhere in the world a few weeks later.
A 40-foot ISO container has 43,9 times the internal volume as a 100kWh powerpack. Now, with powerpacks, you also have to have power modules, not just energy modules, which argues for multiplying by less than 43,9 - but you'll also be able to use space more efficiently, and energy density will be growing. Let's just say 45x. So 4,5 MWh per container. A single cargo ship could carry tens of GWh. Equivalent to hundreds of the Australian battery farm.
Not bad at all.
Last edited:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
From the Recode interview:
That was a fun tidbit!
Elon Musk: "It was ... like, we had the legal team delivering cars in Q3. Todd [Maron] is great. There was a lot of people ... Everyone had to basically go hardcore to solve the ramp."
That was a fun tidbit!
From a bear perspective, what do you think about the possibility of a pull-down of TESLA stock to the 300$ mark level? I think this is entirely possible in the shortterm as we might see the market pulling back more. I do of course not hope that this will be the case, but its possible.
I am also not sure if the positive news are sufficient currently to bring the price a lot above 360$, as the last scenario was the go private tweet and an equal scenario does not seem to happen very soon again.
Market pullback, DOJ charges, major executive departures, major court case loss, serious accident at Fremont or Giga, or about a hundred other possibilities.
FUD incoming
The shorts have been waiting for this, in order to pick it over looking for something therein to attack Tesla with. They always do this, but they'll be all the more eager this quarter.Interesting points about new products in the Kara Swisher's interview:
"We’re gonna have some other exciting announcements on the stationary storage front. ...We have a large product on the stationary storage side that I think will be very compelling for utility customers."
Miguel PeraIv0 on Twitter
"On the pickup truck:"Well I can’t talk about the details, but it’s gonna be like a really futuristic-like cyberpunk, “Blade Runner” pickup truck. It’s gonna be awesome, it’s gonna be amazing. This will be heart-stopping. It stops my heart. It’s like, oh, it’s great"
Miguel PeraIv0 on Twitter
"We’re gonna have some other exciting announcements on the stationary storage front. ...We have a large product on the stationary storage side that I think will be very compelling for utility customers."
Miguel PeraIv0 on Twitter
"On the pickup truck:"Well I can’t talk about the details, but it’s gonna be like a really futuristic-like cyberpunk, “Blade Runner” pickup truck. It’s gonna be awesome, it’s gonna be amazing. This will be heart-stopping. It stops my heart. It’s like, oh, it’s great"
Miguel PeraIv0 on Twitter
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Some nice details in it.
Q3 inventory management was exemplary:
| inventory |
| --------------- |
| Raw materials |
| Work in process |
| Finished goods |
| Service parts |
| =============== |
| Total |
They managed a reduction in finished goods (mostly new cars in inventory) despite ramping up to a higher level of production from ~2k/week in Q2 to ~4k/week in Q3.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Another nice part is that the non-ZEV regulatory credits (GHG credits, etc.) scaled up nicely with volume:
"an increase of $169.4 million in sales of regulatory credits to $189.5 million in the three months ended September 30, 2018 as compared to the prior period. ZEV credits sales were $52.3 million and non-ZEV regulatory credits sales were $137.2 million in the three months ended September 30, 2018, compared to $0.6 million ZEV credit sales and $19.5 million in non-ZEV regulatory credit sales in the three months ended September 30, 2017. The growth in non-ZEV regulatory credits in the three months ended September 30, 2018 was generally consistent with the volume growth in the quarter compared to the three months ended September 30, 2017."
This is very good news in the sense that while ZEV credits are thought to be a 'limited size' market (credits have to be traded with ICE carmakers who have a limited capacity to absorb them in ZEV states), GHG and other credits are not volume limited and earn a steady stream of income for Tesla.
This growth in non-ZEV credit sales should largely offset the ~$50m hit from the China tariffs.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
