TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Disagree. Just trying to keep optimism down.

Self fulfilling prophecy.

 

[SpaceCash]

I guess insideEVs numbers are correct, i think Elon is talking about production numbers. So they produced way more, but didn't deliver this month to customers yet, because of east coast delivery.

edit: insideEVs have good connections in the company, in production at Freemont and also in Sales Office

I wasn't able to look at the tweet without seeing the bear as short sellers. It made little sense at all to me

 

[Boomer19]

yeah i’m kind of a pessimist myself when it comes to market action. just zoom out a bit on a tesla chart and you’ll see the ups and downs. it’s a brutal reminder of who calls the shots in the market

is tesla better off than they were? yes, they’ve turned the corner.

but don’t rule out the possibility that TSLA has as many, or more, hurdles to clear than Tesla Inc.

still long and strong...
but continuously exorcising any bouts of irrational exuberance

like the coach says, head on a swivel, folks!

 

[SpaceCash]

yeah i’m kind of a pessimist myself when it comes to market action. just zoom out a bit on a tesla chart and you’ll see the ups and downs. it’s a brutal reminder of who calls the shots in the market

is tesla better off than they were? yes, they’ve turned the corner.

but don’t rule out the possibility that TSLA has as many, or more, hurdles to clear than Tesla Inc.

still long and strong...
but continuously exorcising any bouts of irrational exuberance

like the coach says, head on a swivel, folks!

yes that zoom out will get you. But dude... Q3 was too major not to permanently change the course. It's gonna find a new range much higher. It's the only possible outcome right now.

 

[EVNow]

OP commented on those keeping options and being leveraged. Neither of you two guys seem to understand what being leveraged means. But one consequence is that you are at mercy of time, and while directionally you could be 100% right, pace of change may mean you lose everything, or come close to it. Been there, done that. Never again.

Well, I have options and as for leveraged, that's the whole point of options, to me anyway.

Basic question is what is the expiry date and how much the SP has to raise to negate the time value decay. In my case it is J19 and 50 cents a day. So, as long as Tesla is going up by more than 50 cents I'm good. I plan to sell and roll over before the Holidays or earlier if the SP stalls or turns bearish.

 

[Papafox]

Regarding this afternoon's TSLA trading, Ii'm going to have to call "Bullsugar!" Here's why:

Take a look at TSLA's descent from the high of 347.65 at 2:32 pm into close and then into after-hours trading. I suspect we are seeing mischief here by the ever-thinning ranks of shorts, trying to suggest that the InsideEVs "sales" numbers for Tesla's vehicles in October are problematic. Many on this forum have pointed out how Tesla's numbers are delivery numbers, not sales numbers and because of shipping to the East Coast and elsewhere you naturally have much higher numbers at the end of the quarter than in the beginning. Further, as @BenPrice correctly pointed out here, you can't really compare these numbers to September (1st month in previous quarter) either, because the issue of pushing 200,000 deliveries in the U.S.number into the 3rd quarter influenced a much above-average number of vehicles delivered in the U.S. in September. The number that really matters for first month of a quarter is production, and with Model 3 stable in the 5K/wk area (and likely to increase from here), 4Q is looking really good so far.

Here's what the shorts have done, however. Notice the stairsteps down from the high of the day into close? Doesn't that seem to be just too uniform a descent, particularly on a day with the NASDAQ rising during that time period? Now here's the real reason why I am calling "bullsugar!". Notice that the rather uniform descent continues well into after-hours trading until the SP reaches about 341? You're welcome to exam the after-hours trading in the Daily TSLA Charts thread (I'm still working on today's), but if you look at after-hours trading for TSLA you typically see it running pretty much even with the closing price of the day. The exception is when bad news happens during after-hours trading, at which time you see an immediate big jump up or down, depending upon whether the news is good or bad. You don't typically see these shallow climbs or descents because with exceptionally low volume the changes in SP are much more abrupt in after-hours trading. Further, if the SP changes $1 in after-hours, we see this as a significant trend. Today the SP changed $3 in after-hours trading (between 344 and 341 before a slight recovery).

I suggest we watch to see if one of the usual suspects tries to launch a FUD attack tomorrow morning about the InsideEV numbers. If they do, then I would give serious consideration that the attack is coordinated with today's bogus marching down of the TSLA stock price late in the day and in after-hours trading. Watch for it.

 

[Boomer19]

yes that zoom out will get you. But dude... Q3 was too major not to permanently change the course. It's gonna find a new range much higher. It's the only possible outcome right now.

i do believe that the path looks clearer.
and i still have a variety of calls which i’m pruning to roll forward some of it.
dec 325
jan 300
feb 340
but i remain cautious at this point bc the market rarely does what consensus expects.
in the early stages of the bandwagon reorg we will get some run up. we have had some, how much more is unknown. then the general consensus thinks tsla is going to be “x” by “n” date, and lucy pulls the football away again.

but right now in this environment, id be more comfortable if we see some positive global economic news, and improved nasdaq sentiment, to spark some fear into the short side, putting tesla up another notch.

i’m putting a higher percentage probability that any new and sustained higher tesla trading range (like 390-425, for example) will come over the next 1-2 qtrs, rather than now. i’ll take now, for sure. but i think the higher % chance is out 5-8 months for any sustained (month or so) trading above the current ATH.

even then, that probability is not a convincing one. i’d not be surprised to see both 265 and possibly a peek at 435, between tomorrow and the Q2 earnings call 2019. i know, i’m too pessimistic for some of you, again, look at the chart and those price swings over the years. a squeeze changes things though, but what’s the probability of a squeeze of $100 or more from here to jan 1 2019? 3-5% tops? i really have no idea...does that prob increase if we go out to ~8/1 q2 19 earnings call? i think so.

on the other hand, im a bit optimistic in general after the nasdaq recorded ~15% decline over the last month.
i picked up a few feb and march amzn nvda and nflx (post earnings) calls as well the other day in reaction to that.

if we can get a bit of a tailwind for a month or so, i’ll be looking to dump those as well.

some background before the uber bulls pounce on me...
i got my nose opened on tsla for aug, sept, and oct, not fun. the $ amount isn’t important because it’s all relative to the person. but the losses were 25 % of my principal in that account. i made it back and then some since (yes, that was fast) but still. i normally keep a bunch of stock and then a factional % of the stocks value in call options.
but i went full choke out prior to the whole tweet and other bs that went on and took a hard lesson.

so yeah, i’m still carrying some options, but i’m trying to be much more cautious and maintain the parameters that i had defined, instead of breaking them like when my prior ‘overconfident’ mistakes were made.

 

[skybluecgreen]

View attachment 349042

Regarding this afternoon's TSLA trading, Ii'm going to have to call "Bullsugar!" Here's why:

Take a look at TSLA's descent from the high of 347.65 at 2:32 pm into close and then into after-hours trading. I suspect we are seeing mischief here by the ever-thinning ranks of shorts, trying to suggest that the InsideEVs "sales" numbers for Tesla's vehicles in October are problematic. Many on this forum have pointed out how Tesla's numbers are delivery numbers, not sales numbers and because of shipping to the East Coast and elsewhere you naturally have much higher numbers at the end of the quarter than in the beginning. Further, as @BenPrice correctly pointed out here, you can't really compare these numbers to September (1st month in previous quarter) either, because the issue of pushing 200,000 deliveries in the U.S.number into the 3rd quarter influenced a much above-average number of vehicles delivered in the U.S. in September. The number that really matters for first month of a quarter is production, and with Model 3 stable in the 5K/wk area (and likely to increase from here), 4Q is looking really good so far.

Here's what the shorts have done, however. Notice the stairsteps down from the high of the day into close? Doesn't that seem to be just too uniform a descent, particularly on a day with the NASDAQ rising during that time period? Now here's the real reason why I am calling "bullsugar!". Notice that the rather uniform descent continues well into after-hours trading until the SP reaches about 341? You're welcome to exam the after-hours trading in the Daily TSLA Charts thread (I'm still working on today's), but if you look at after-hours trading for TSLA you typically see it running pretty much even with the closing price of the day. The exception is when bad news happens during after-hours trading, at which time you see an immediate big jump up or down, depending upon whether the news is good or bad. You don't typically see these shallow climbs or descents because with exceptionally low volume the changes in SP are much more abrupt in after-hours trading. Further, if the SP changes $1 in after-hours, we see this as a significant trend. Today the SP changed $3 in after-hours trading (between 344 and 341 before a slight recovery).

I suggest we watch to see if one of the usual suspects tries to launch a FUD attack tomorrow morning about the InsideEV numbers. If they do, then I would give serious consideration that the attack is coordinated with today's bogus marching down of the TSLA stock price late in the day and in after-hours trading. Watch for it.

The share price fell ah in sympathy with AAPL and the futures it brought down with its report. TSLA has outperformed leading stocks recently so its relative weakness late in the day can be considered natural consolidation. FUD is pretty constant but lately it has not hurt share price like it was before earnings. Hopefully the trend continues.

 

[SpaceCash]

The share price fell ah in sympathy with AAPL and the futures it brought down with its report. TSLA has outperformed leading stocks recently so its relative weakness late in the day can be considered natural consolidation. FUD is pretty constant but lately it has not hurt share price like it was before earnings. Hopefully the trend continues.

It's a really interesting assessment though and I think Papafox could be right. I didn't notice it as suspicious but that breakdown is compelling. It really is weirdly smooth. These guys would have a way around paying trade fees right? Not that they seem THAT concerned about losing money in the short term

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Well, I have options and as for leveraged, that's the whole point of options, to me anyway.

Basic question is what is the expiry date and how much the SP has to raise to negate the time value decay. In my case it is J19 and 50 cents a day. So, as long as Tesla is going up by more than 50 cents I'm good. I plan to sell and roll over before the Holidays or earlier if the SP stalls or turns bearish.

Your plan sounds great if your assumption of $0.50 up or better a day holds up.
Stocks don't always go up though... Actually, TSLA seems to be a favorite play for professionals to take candy from retail kids, chew them and spit them out.
That thing about market trying to hurt highest number of market participants? TSLA embodies it...

But hey, I'll be delighted if your assumption holds true. After all, I'm still over 100% TSLA

 

[EVNow]

Your plan sounds great if your assumption of $0.50 up or better a day holds up.
Stocks don't always go up though... Actually, TSLA seems to be a favorite play for professionals to take candy from retail kids, chew them and spit them out.

The reason I quoted $0.5 is to note that compared to usual SP changes a day, the option value decay because of time is almost insignificant (for J'19, now) in the case of Tesla. We all know overnight Tesla can go up by $50 or go down by that much.

My plan is to roll if at some point I'm still underwater. If I've significant profit, I'll take out taxes and some profit and roll the rest. Essentially longer (>90 day) calls become like stock, when kept rolling.

We do expect Tesla to go up eventually, right ?

 

[Boomer19]

let’s hope the kara interview is a classic. i’m optimistic it will be a good one. they go back a loonngg time. i think we have a chance for a more market-relevant piece since this space is obviously her niche.
she’ll pry some candidness from him. but i suspect he’ll also check her a bit. looking forward to some jive between them.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

...
We do expect Tesla to go up eventually, right ?

I've been waiting since Feb '15. SP didn't do a whole lot since... My first buys $240, we were $250 two weeks back...
But yeah, eventually, and eventually may be soon
In the meantime, I've decided I want time to be on my side, so instead of buying calls, I sell far out of money puts (SP+$100=$440 etc)... Very easy to roll out if one is wrong (easier than calls, because you keep selling time, instead of buying time)

 

[Papafox]

The share price fell ah in sympathy with AAPL and the futures it brought down with its report. TSLA has outperformed leading stocks recently so its relative weakness late in the day can be considered natural consolidation. FUD is pretty constant but lately it has not hurt share price like it was before earnings. Hopefully the trend continues.

Hmm,looking at the charts for AAPL and TSLA, I see that AAPL's dip began at 4:29pm and bottomed at 5:39pm. The AMZN chart shows a smooth descent during this time and the NVDA chart shows a descent, but it was anything but smooth. I'm going to tip my hat to you and say you have offered a reasonable explanation for the after-hours dip. I'll stick to my previous theory for the afternoon market hours however. Thanks!

 

[S3XY]

Yeah, I can't get mileage that bad unless I drive through a snowstorm with the heater blasting, and then stop and open up the doors to let all the heat out every few miles. (Which I have, for various reasons, actually done.)

Sounds to me like you might need to adjust your diet.

 

[EVNow]

I've been waiting since Feb '15. SP didn't do a whole lot since... My first buys $240, we were $250 two weeks back...
But yeah, eventually, and eventually may be soon
In the meantime, I've decided I want time to be on my side, so instead of buying calls, I sell far out of money puts (SP+$100=$440 etc)... Very easy to roll out if one is wrong (easier than calls, because you keep selling time, instead of buying time)

Well my Tesla stock is at ... 1,100% gain.

Yes, last 3 years have been weird. But, believe me, this time it’s different !

I might try both put and call, once I get upgraded from my novice status as an option trader

 

[Papafox]

Possible trade deal in the works with China!

Bloomberg article link

 

[sundaymorning]

i do believe that the path looks clearer.
and i still have a variety of calls which i’m pruning to roll forward some of it.
dec 325
jan 300
feb 340
but i remain cautious at this point bc the market rarely does what consensus expects.
in the early stages of the bandwagon reorg we will get some run up. we have had some, how much more is unknown. then the general consensus thinks tsla is going to be “x” by “n” date, and lucy pulls the football away again.

but right now in this environment, id be more comfortable if we see some positive global economic news, and improved nasdaq sentiment, to spark some fear into the short side, putting tesla up another notch.

i’m putting a higher percentage probability that any new and sustained higher tesla trading range (like 390-425, for example) will come over the next 1-2 qtrs, rather than now. i’ll take now, for sure. but i think the higher % chance is out 5-8 months for any sustained (month or so) trading above the current ATH.

even then, that probability is not a convincing one. i’d not be surprised to see both 265 and possibly a peek at 435, between tomorrow and the Q2 earnings call 2019. i know, i’m too pessimistic for some of you, again, look at the chart and those price swings over the years. a squeeze changes things though, but what’s the probability of a squeeze of $100 or more from here to jan 1 2019? 3-5% tops? i really have no idea...does that prob increase if we go out to ~8/1 q2 19 earnings call? i think so.

on the other hand, im a bit optimistic in general after the nasdaq recorded ~15% decline over the last month.
i picked up a few feb and march amzn nvda and nflx (post earnings) calls as well the other day in reaction to that.

if we can get a bit of a tailwind for a month or so, i’ll be looking to dump those as well.

some background before the uber bulls pounce on me...
i got my nose opened on tsla for aug, sept, and oct, not fun. the $ amount isn’t important because it’s all relative to the person. but the losses were 25 % of my principal in that account. i made it back and then some since (yes, that was fast) but still. i normally keep a bunch of stock and then a factional % of the stocks value in call options.
but i went full choke out prior to the whole tweet and other bs that went on and took a hard lesson.

so yeah, i’m still carrying some options, but i’m trying to be much more cautious and maintain the parameters that i had defined, instead of breaking them like when my prior ‘overconfident’ mistakes were made.

All the reasoning and historicals goes out the window when profitability was secured.

Investor belief in Tesla appears healthy right now & moving forward. Look at Appl, all that cash, all that Jazz about beating revenues, and then it tanks? let’s face it, Tesla is undervalued and the sustain buying is real. Name another company growing 50% yoy with revenues in the billions and multiple products in the pipeline.

And yes, I think you’re too pessimistic and overelying on historicals (when Tesla was losing $700 million per quarter). The profitability in Q3 changes everything.

 

[EVNow]

Possible trade deal in the works with China!

Bloomberg article link

Chances of a deal with Trump is always good. He just wants a “deal” and doesn’t care whether it’s good or bad. He will just say it’s great and his base believes him.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Well my Tesla stock is at ... 1,100% gain.

Yes, last 3 years have been weird. But, believe me, this time it’s different !

I might try both put and call, once I get upgraded from my novice status as an option trader

Oooooh, you mean you did something like this, just better?

The only problem is that that graph is just a small window from the larger timeframe - this same account since inception:

Gains and loses can come in any order. I'm overall 300%+ overall since 2013, but one of my accounts never fully recovered. It seems to be the thing with the options - everyone has to go through their own harrowing experience before they find right level of risk they're comfortable with...