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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Actually, if time is of the essence it should not be too hard to air drop them with parachutes from a suitable cargo plane.

The Soviets and later the Russians have that capability with e.g. their heavy cargo plane IL-76 that each can air drop several IFVs (each a good dozen metric tons). Being less risk averse, they do it with the crew inside - even in peace time, so the lithium-ion cells that like a human-friendly environment should be able to manage the landing too - at least when the elaborate parachute system works, which is most of the time.

Russia Developing Parachute System To Airdrop Armored Vehicle With Personnel Inside

So many important reasons to NOT do parachute delivery:
  • Tesla is NOT going to adopt any Soviet-era tech
  • NATO countries use LAPES (Low-altitude Parachute Extraction System)
  • LAPES kills air-crew at a fixed rate (see vid below)
  • its now restricted to emergency/wartime operations due to high risk
  • LAPSE implies air-cargo, when sea-lift is the way to move large tonnages
  • Tanks/AFVs can survive a LAPES drop (acceptable combat losses)
  • Civilian electronics/flammable lithium batteries will NOT survive a drop
  • lithium electrolytes in that quantity would be a massive fire risk
  • risks include total loss of the Aircraft and crew
  • no civil Insurance Underwriter would EVER carry this policy
In summary: Sealift to ship megapacks, LAPES for when the Country is at war.

 
Agreed with Zhelko -- being on the wrong side of time decay is dangerous and being leveraged is very dangerous.

I am technically leveraged, but I've been super conservative about it -- I'm using some of my leverage capacity to back selling deep out of the money puts. This means I don't pay interest, I'm on the correct side of time decay, and the worst case means I end up selling my other stocks at inconvenient times to buy a bunch of TSLA at low prices, in which case I won't be leveraged but I will be more concentrated. But more likely the puts just expire.

The game I had been playing before going alll in with my remaining cash after the go private tweet was to wait until I felt the stock had been beaten down some first. I would then sell a leap ATM put, giving myself margin of error on time and price. If I was wrong on time and stock continued to move down, I would wait and buy a leap call, same expiration. This would give me a synthetic stock position. My goal with these plays was to safely swing trade TSLA and pick up a few shares at a time. Was working great until the “Tweet!”
 
My feeling is when you have Trump as president, the mid term elections are non event. It doesn't matter if democrats will take over or republicans stay. Maybe I'am getting it wrong because I don't live in US
Yes, the latter. You are getting it wrong. Its a HUGE deal.

Dems taking over the house - that's the expectation - will completely stop Trump's domestic legislative agenda. He will still have more leeway in foreign affairs (that's why when you look from outside US, Presidents matter most).

More over - since the house will have a lot of investigation powers, it is likely to completely tie up Trump administration - which seems to be extremely corrupt. They can also investigate a lot of stuff Trump did before 2016 - which can really be problematic for Trump. All this could make him more dangerous internationally as he may want to distract voters here by starting a war.
 
I sold my last remaining J19 $390 LEAP and put the money back into stock. I'm optimistic about the stock direction over the coming weeks, but it's getting too close to J19 to make holding this much more than a lotto ticket.

I was glad to see the price rebound to a slight profit after being deeply negative a few weeks ago, but I would have been much better off selling it months ago around the time of the Q2 ER. I actually had my finger on the button to sell it ~3 months ago at the time of the "funding secured" fiasco. It was worth $26 then (versus $14 today). What prevented me from selling was Elon's tweet that the $420 buyout was "certain except for the shareholder vote". I figured there was a high probably it would be worth $30 shortly - which obviously didn't pan out - and even if the vote was no it was worth almost that before these tweets, so the short term downside seemed limited. Of course I didn't anticipate the fallout after these tweets.

The point of all this is to say that while I don't know what the SEC is doing with the $40 million collected, I hope they are distributing more widely than just the short sellers. Quite a few folks on here with deeply OTM LEAPS lost a lot of money selling in the aftermath of the tweet when the price of LEAPS above $420 crashed and then they sold, which was the forum consensus move at the time. Further, the share price move downwards after things unravelled was larger than the short lived move upwards, so on the net I think longs were more negatively affected. I'm not hoping for any money here and my share would be a penny anyways, but I hope the SEC isn't just handling this from a short seller perspective.
 
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TSLA holding up pretty well vs the NASDAQ-100:

NASDAQ-100.2018-11-02.13-05.png
 
Pulling down others would happen through margin calls, no? Basically, if someone gets margin called because of a stock falling, they may have to sell other stocks to satisfy the margin call.

That's a very good point. If you received a margin call while you are long AAPL and short TSLA at the same time, the smart choice is to close the TSLA's position.
 
Is all this because of AAPL? I have to admit that I never understood how a single stock can "pull down others". Why would that be the case? Surely those bailing out of Apple right now should be re-investing elsewhere...

Stock market is weird!

"Billion here, billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money!"
-- Everett Dirksen

AAPL Mkt Cap: 997.09B
- down a further $10B since after-hrs dive yesterday

TSLA? It's GREEN :D
$344.88 +0.60 13:35 EDT
 
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