TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[BioSehnsucht]

Michael Lewis, author of "The Big Short", discusses Wall St on Bloomberg Business:

Youtube auto played the following after that video and it's a nice technical explanation of the problem - I think by the guy whom the book Michael Lewis was about? (actually, youtube auto played a different version that cut off half way and made me go looking for the full version, which is what I linked here)

I'd never heard of him before, but he seems like a honest dude. I wouldn't mind him being one of the new board members ...

Seems like a very "first principles" kind of guy, and in favor of long term horizons.

 

[tinm]

Amory’s a really nice guy, very smart; I got to know him in the early 90s when he was one of the few people already writing and talking about a future with hybrids and BEVs.

I do not think he is right for this Tesla chairman role. He’d hold absolutely zero power over Elon and he’s not really an execution guy. Tesla would be better off with a veteran CEO who’s been there, done that.

Sure would be nice if they'd pick Rocky Mountain Institute [RMI ]:
AMORY LOVINS
Chairman Emeritus, Chief Scientist, Co-founder, RMI Trustee

• EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP
• OFFICE OF THE CHIEF SCIENTIST

Physicist Amory Lovins (1947), FRSA, is cofounder and Chief Scientist of Rocky Mountain Institute (www.rmi.org); energy advisor to major firms and governments in 65+ countries for 40+ years; author of 31 books and more than 600 papers; and an integrative designer of superefficient buildings, factories, and vehicles.

He has received the Blue Planet, Volvo, Zayed, Onassis, Nissan, Shingo, and Mitchell Prizes, the MacArthur and Ashoka Fellowships, the Happold, Benjamin Franklin, and Spencer Hutchens Medals, 12 honorary doctorates, and the Heinz, Lindbergh, Right Livelihood (“alternative Nobel”), National Design, and World Technology Awards. In 2016, the President of Germany awarded him the Officer’s Cross of the Order of Merit (Bundesverdienstkreuz 1. Klasse).

A Harvard and Oxford dropout, former Oxford don, honorary US architect, and Swedish engineering academician, he has taught at ten universities, most recently Stanford’s Engineering School and the Naval Postgraduate School (but only on topics he’s never studied, so as to retain beginner’s mind). He served in 2011–18 on the National Petroleum Council. Time has named him one of the world’s 100 most influential people, and Foreign Policy, one of the 100 top global thinkers. His latest books include Natural Capitalism (1999, www.natcap.org), Small Is Profitable (2002, www.smallisprofitable.org), Winning the Oil Endgame (2004, www.oilendgame.com), The Essential Amory Lovins (2011), and Reinventing Fire (2011, www.reinventingfire.com).

His main recent efforts include supporting RMI’s collaborative synthesis, for China’s National Development and Reform Commission, of an ambitious efficiency-and-renewables trajectory that informed the 13th Five Year Plan; helping the Government of India design transformational mobility; and exploring how to make integrative design the new normal, so investments to energy efficiency can yield expanding rather than diminishing returns.

Automotive experiences: https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Amory_Lovins_Auto_Bio.pdf

OK, WHO CAN GET THIS NOMINATION TO THE TESLA BOARD or tweet to Elon??

 

[KarenRei]

He’d hold absolutely zero power over Elon and he’s not really an execution guy.

Sounds perfect.

 

[Reciprocity]

I look around at everyone defending the entry into the pickup market with an F-650 class monster truck as some sort of good strategy. You all sit back and pretend like the FUD isn't writing itself and make no attempts to face it before it strikes. How many analysts expected the tesla pickup to be a competitor in the currently hot full and mid-sized truck market? Thought this was a place where investors could have real discussions about their worries regarding the direction a product is going and at least hash out some sensible responses for the upcoming FUD.

Tesla is a simple animal. You want to know what Tesla will do with pickup. Find the largest pool if margins in pickups. If that's the F250 supercab. Then that's what Tesla will Target. Tesla's strategy is simple; Top down margin domination.

Elon says a lot of stuff but at the end is the day, he is focused on the mission and the mission requires competition to react. Attacking margin forces their hand in way that nothing else can. No government, no shaming, no green washing. Suffocate the competition by consuming all the air (phat profit margins) in the room. Nothing will get their attention more then shrinking their margin share.

The semi is really the outlier, it's about the mission.

 

[dmckinstry]

That guy is right! Just premature/zealous

You're putting it mildly. He is right, but TT007 time is potentially 5(or more) times as long as Elon time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Youtube auto played the following after that video and it's a nice technical explanation of the problem - I think by the guy whom the book Michael Lewis was about? (actually, youtube auto played a different version that cut off half way and made me go looking for the full version, which is what I linked here)

I'd never heard of him before, but he seems like a honest dude. I wouldn't mind him being one of the new board members ...

Seems like a very "first principles" kind of guy, and in favor of long term horizons.

Thanks for that. I actually have "Brad Katsuyama - The Stock Market had become an Illusion" bookmarked on YouTube, but I didn't link it before because its cutoff as you say.

Highly recommended talk.

Cheers!

 

[Brando]

FEAR of INNOVATORS ? @KarenRei @JRP3
another innovator a bad idea ?

I suspect we might call the "original 4" Eberhart, Tarpenning, JB, Ian Wright innovators? After [2003?] starting/organizing/running SpaceX, Elon was one of, if not the only and certainly largest investor in Tesla (won't ask his friends to invest as he thought there was little chance of success. 10% at best and he didn't want any of his friends to lose money on such a minimal idea. After the board decided to remove Eberhart (note: Elon was removed from pay-pal so they could sell out to eBay which is where Elon got his $160 million half for SpaceX and the other half went to Tesla after I think four rounds of funding).

Elon and Directors hired 4 CEOs before Elon accepted the Tesla Motors CEO job as his passion was really SpaceX. So he never really wanted to run Tesla (he had 5 kids by then). But who could have done it better? IF there was/is someone where are they? Considering all the car companies and the dozen vehicle startups, where is that person? Bob Lutz involved in 3 startups - you know which ones?

Now just what has Elon done to give the term "innovator" such a bad connotation? Electric cars go back to 1800s. Lithium batteries 1962?
AC induction motor 1879 proof of concept. IGBT allowed Tesla Motors to get rid of gear box - but they didn't invent them and I really don't know who had the first idea to use them. The other innovative idea was to use off the shelf IGBTs [same as audio amplifiers] and not try to build a HW solution -a bigger IGBT - but use software to control the motor (people were shocked to find out there was NO custom electronic component - all off the shelf parts (side note: IBM PC and Apple the same).

Innovator of what exactly? business methods; organization; hiring; product vision; SuperCharger network solution; 17" big screen? Similar to the iPhone - all the parts were around, they just needed some integration and controlling software and internet for updating - I guess we call it the vision of the product to meet the needs of actual buyers. Especially when the buyers have no idea what they are missing until you can offer it to them.

I really can't understand why anyone would consider Elon collaborating with Amory could be a bad thing? Elon didn't build these two companies in barely 15 years [what 44,000 employees?] without a LOT of collaboration - anyone know how many Engineers and Designers?
I suspect you are some how absorbing troll talk.

Read a little about Amory; a few of his articles/speeches; awards; projects and you'll probably see he has done a lot of useful/interesting things in his 70 years. Would seem a fine candidate for the Tesla Board to consider.
find my links here TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[22522]

Very negative feedback on Navigate on Autopilot.
Navigate on Autopilot is Useless (2018.42.3)

Was curious about this thread’s experiences.

My experience is pretty good. I think you may have to set the "new route differential" to 1 minute to get lane advice.

No expert, but I like it. The next step.

 

[Brando]

Amory’s a really nice guy, very smart; I got to know him in the early 90s when he was one of the few people already writing and talking about a future with hybrids and BEVs.

I do not think he is right for this Tesla chairman role. He’d hold absolutely zero power over Elon and he’s not really an execution guy. Tesla would be better off with a veteran CEO who’s been there, done that.

There isn't such a CEO - else he'd already be competing with Tesla Motors, right?

And you suspect that some "CEO type" especially one that doesn't understand first principle thinking - physics probably the best practise - would magically have "power over Elon" ? Can't imagine how this helps the Tesla Mission. What you think the stock price could have risen faster?

This might well be the fastest growing manufacturing company in automotive history. You know one that grew faster?

 

[JRP3]

FEAR of INNOVATORS ?

I'm not looking for anyone who might get in Elon's way. I don't know enough about Amory's personality to tell if he'd be good or not.

 

[Brando]

I'll see your Joker, and raise you the King of Hearts:

BUT, this system is working fine for the Banksters and the super wealthy. They have ALL increased their assets by a minimum of about 4x in this last decade. DOW is at historical highs. House never looses.

keep your eyes open, only gamble what you can afford to loose - try to keep emotions at bay - WARNING I have NO experience with this. I only THINK I know what I THINK I have read - which still isn't much. maybe you should ignore this post.

Ron Baron talks about buying Tesla well below $20 sold after making 3x or 4x only to buy back in to Tesla at $170, I think he said. Another YouTuber claimed he could be a billionaire today if he hadn't listened to Wall St. FUD and also bailed out of Tesla - he encourages first principle thinking and keeping emotions at bay.
I'm not sure you can use first principle thinking with FIAT money and Stocks.

good luck to all, as I'm mostly confused by the "market" movements.

 

[RobStark]

The semi is really the outlier, it's about the mission.

Tesla Semi will displace more oil demand than Model 3. That will do more to transition the world to the sustainable production and consumption of energy.

 

[Sparky]

Very negative feedback on Navigate on Autopilot.
Navigate on Autopilot is Useless (2018.42.3)

Was curious about this thread’s experiences.

I've got over 300 mi on AP 42.2 between Mod3 and X over the last week. More recently in some heavy traffic.
I replied as best I could point by point to his post. Def respect for OP's opinions and agreed with some points but my experience was overall positive despite some glitches (beta SW BTW). My spouse trusts AP too much IMO. Prefer she wait for next version. I think it's next level stuff and use it every opportunity but stay alert to glitches.
I should add that my opinion has evolved over last couple days. Interacting with Auto-nav is very different than how we're trained to drive. I think the larger issue is the lack of useful customer instruction on how it behaves, especially in heavy traffic and what the limitations are and "outlier" behavior with lane changes. Hoping this doesn't bite Tesla. Requiring driver confirmation is wise at this stage. I keep reading reviews hoping experience is mostly positive but am expecting some negative stuff like above post.
Nonetheless, I love the way the car features continue to iterate.

 

[EVNow]

Market News !

Asian markets are down 1% to 2%. Hope that is not what we see here tomorrow. Hoping next week will be bullish and the market won't drag down TSLA. We need one good week of market to see where TSLA lands.

 

[22522]

Two features needed are related more to adaptive cruise control than autopilot:

1) max shear speed so that when traffic opens on an exit lane along cars stuck in traffic speed is limited to a differential rather than the speed limit ACC setting.

2) a learning mode where lane keeping is not stacked on top of adaptive cruise control. The idea here is human controls speed of vehicle with pedals while car steers.

Really ACC things but worth doing to help folks stay comfortable with who controls what. ACC has been known to scare people. This solves that.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Two features needed are related more to adaptive cruise control than autopilot:

1) max shear speed so that when traffic opens on an exit lane along cars stuck in traffic speed is limited to a differential rather than the speed limit ACC setting.

2) a learning mode where lane keeping is not stacked on top of adaptive cruise control. The idea here is human controls speed of vehicle with pedals while car steers.

Really ACC things but worth doing to help folks stay comfortable with who controls what. ACC has been known to scare people. This solves that.

Related to #1 I'd like to to be able to set TACC to current speed rather than speed limit (as it will choose the higher of the two, not the lower). Would be nice to use TACC through school zones (obviously, I'm still ready to brake, but it saves me from manually riding 20mph if I can just slow to 20 ahead of time, enable TACC, and then hit the brakes if needed). Almost never do any of the school zones I drive through have anyone crossing (at least, when I go through them).

 

[sundaymorning]

5 Years Of Incorrect Claims & Forecasts About Tesla From TSLA Bear Mark Spiegel | CleanTechnica

Great work ZS!

Pretty black and white how untrustworthy and wrong shorts have been, but yet somehow they seem to always have cash to keep up the media charade.

Brilliant! Looks like the table has turned, Spiegel & his funds are now the hunted. How does it feel to be on the verge of bankrupting your fund Spiegel? How does it feel to be attacked and embarrassed by the media? Simply love this article, thanks @Cleantechnica.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Very negative feedback on Navigate on Autopilot.
Navigate on Autopilot is Useless (2018.42.3)

Was curious about this thread’s experiences.

I commented in that thread, but didn't see a real need to counter the hyperbole. However, since you asked:

My experience with it has been nothing short of amazing, frankly. I have not asked the system to take me on a long jaunt, but I've used it when traveling from my middle son's school, roughly 4 miles away, to our home exit (around 4 times so far). I realize this is a short trip, but the journey is on a divided 6 lane highway with multiple exits, entrances, and lane splits along the route. The vehicle navigated the traffic and complexity with absolutely no issues at all. In other words, it worked as advertised.

So, to call it "useless" is the height of idiocy.

 

[Fact Checking]

Only real disadvantage for GF1 is distance from a port.

There also appears to be rather acute labor shortage in the Reno area. The "Tesla effect" already created a big boom in Nevada - increasing GF1 from the current ~6k staffing to ~20k might be problematic. Tesla is already one of the best paying employees in the area.

There's going to be a limit after which it's probably cheaper to build a new Gigafactory than to extend GF1. Other states would be accommodative of a Gigafactory too I'm sure.

 

[TradingInvest]

Don't focus on trivial things like shorts do. Don't be tricked by the shorts.

The EV market is about to expand at high speed. Everyday there are another 1000 new Tesla owners, more and more people will learn Tesla cars are so much better. Tesla is the most compelling car available. ICE makers will be under huge stress in the next few years. Those ICE makers know big trouble is coming. Shorts seem to be the dumbest in the room.

I think Tesla's FSD is coming next year. If this does come, the stock probably will be re-priced by a lot. Even without considering FSD, Tesla is still undervalued.

Every stock can fluctuate, so I can't predict near term moves. But for long term investment, it's not difficult to tell smart guys are on the long side, dumb guys on the short side.

Baillie Gifford’s McCombie: Why I’m Still Backing Tesla