TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Runarbt]

Ask yo self

Stupid question. ;-)

 

[Driver Dave]

Man, think of how much more Einhorn wants to short now, he must be quadrupling or quintupling down now

"Einhorn founded Greenlight Capital in 1996."

"On July 4, 2018, The Wall Street Journal reported that Greenlight Capital's assets in management shrunk from $12 billion in 2014 to about $5.5 billion. "

Einhorn Quote:

“The loss was not bad luck. It was bad analysis.”

That about sums up his short position on TSLA.

 

[mickificki]

May I politely ask to take the renting vs owning property conversation elsewhere? Not only is it off-topic, also the discussion is low-effort and not educating anybody.

Expect the first half of the day to be similar to yesterday: first a push downward (already happened IMO) then a gradual rise until resistance at $348.

Any positive news and we'll break $348 and move to $355 or so. If not, expect a fade like yesterday evening.

fwiw, option sniper sees resistance at 348, 351, and 355...after that prob 360.

 

[AudubonB]

MOD UPDATE:
21 or so purely political posts moved.
ZERO "housing" posts moved but this topic received a warning less than 48 hours ago. All further such posts will be deleted.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Amazon, Google and Netflix are popping. Tesla is being held back by the resistance level. If it breaks through it will likely catch up.

(Regarding Amazon: with the Democrats now in a position to reign in Trump, there is less chance of Amazon being broken up.)

 

[ggr]

Elon also rents his home, he must reason like you.

Which one? He has at least three.

 

[Unpilot]

Nice prize fight type action at treefidy

 

[LoveTSLA]

Ha I think the big orders will push it up 350 today as it is happening.

A few very large sale order lined up at 350. Once that cleared, you know where we are going (up, up...).

 

[humbaba]

Nice prize fight type action at treefidy

Although the morning's volume is not weighted as heavily to the opening spike, this isn't exactly a high volume day. If the intraday trading volume keeps up it may reach the average, but this isn't exactly what I'd call a fight. It is also moving pretty much with NASDAQ (though the buying pressure still has it above NASDAQ).

This is pretty much what I expect until 4Q. Unless we get another "going private" event.

 

[ZachF]

Broke tree fiddy!

 

[Tslynk67]

350 is the new 348...

 

[LoveTSLA]

A few very large sale order lined up at 350. Once that cleared, you know where we are going (up, up...).

Wow, these 250k 350 just got cleared!

 

[EVNow]

Someone really wants to push the price up today. Large volumes to push the price above 348 & now 350.

 

[CaliBear1]

Hill 350 taken! The timing was finally right and my Sell order triggered. 3PD secured! I stood in line pre-release. Now the "My other car is a reservation" bumper sticker and the trusty old Honda Civic upon which it rides can now be put out to pasture.

I still have over a thousand shares, so this ride is just beginning. The difference is I'll be enjoying that ride in my new ride, "Magneto."

 

[Analyst007]

Hill 350 taken! The timing was finally right and my Sell order triggered. 3PD secured! I stood in line pre-release. Now the "My other car is a reservation" bumper sticker and the trusty old Honda Civic upon which it rides can now be put out to pasture.

I still have over a thousand shares, so this ride is just beginning. The difference is I'll be enjoying that ride in my new ride, "Magneto."

You were the one causing the drop back to 348.50? DAMN BOY.

 

[EVMeister]

Look at what you've done. Enjoy your car, but you should feel bad!

 

[CaliBear1]

Tough crowd!

I'll be here all week.

Look at what you've done. Enjoy your car, but you should feel bad! [/QUOTE

 

[Fact Checking]

Someone really wants to push the price up today. Large volumes to push the price above 348 & now 350.

There's also someone who desperately wants to mark down the TSLA price: there were two brutal sell spikes today, at 11:17am with 75k shares sold in a very short amount of time, and 11:29am when 87k TSLA shares were sold in a 'dumb spike' that no genuine seller of the stock would utilize. Today there were no macro events that would have caused these spikes/icicles: NASDAQ futures were rising and stable, Dow futures were rising, the dollar was stable. There was no Tesla specific news either that would have triggered these orders.

Saw two of these spikes/icicles yesterday as well (November 6) at 12:45 and 15:53 and chalked them up to probably elections related deleveraging - but today there's no such reason - it looks like a clear attempt to mark down the TSLA price below the key $347 level.

In particular the Nov 6 12:45 event was remarkable in that it dropped the TSLA price by $2 within a fraction of a second. Very few rational market participants would execute an order than that, without the intent to drop the price in a visible fashion and cause losses to Tesla investors (which I believe is illegal price manipulation).

This could be another entry to @Papafox's growing list of 'weird TSLA price events'.

If only we had a federal government agency tasked with overseeing the health of the financial markets, having the power to request transaction level data that identifies the traders behidn those selling spikes, enforcing laws that prohibit illegal market manipulation!

 

[ggr]

There's also someone who desperately wants to mark down the TSLA price: there were two brutal sell spikes today, at 11:17am with 75k shares sold in a very short amount of time, and 11:29am when 87k TSLA shares were sold in a 'dumb spike' that no genuine seller of the stock would utilize.

Saw two of these spikes/icicles yesterday as well (November 5th) at 12:45 and 15:53 and chalked them up to probably elections related deleveraging - but today there's no such reason - it looks like a clear attempt to mark down the TSLA price below the key $347 level.

In particular the Nov 5 12:45 event was remarkable in that it dropped the TSLA price by $2 within a fraction of a second.

This could be another entry to @Papafox's growing list of 'weird TSLA price events'.

If only we had a federal government agency tasked with overseeing the health of the financial markets, enforcing laws that prohibit illegal market manipulation!

Anyone trying to take profit wouldn't do it that way, so ISTM that it is shorts digging a deeper hole for themselves. Let's bury them in it!

 

[Fact Checking]

Anyone trying to take profit wouldn't do it that way,

Agreed:

• If you are a large Tesla investor who wants to reduce their stake, the usual way is to put a large sell limit order at around $350 which would be soaked up in no time without having an overly negative effect on the price. (which would needlessly reduce the value of your remaining stake in Tesla.)
  
• Even if this is the last large residual chunk of your Tesla stake you are selling, selling in such a fashion caused significant trading losses.
• It's not options market maker related inventory management flow either I believe: those firms usually buy during bull runs and don't sell in such a fashion, and in any case the Nov 9 expiry in two days is a very thinly populated options book with an open interest of less than 50K contracts. (Next week's expiry, November 16 in comparison is one of the huge options days: over 300K contracts are open, most of them PUTs.)

The two main explanations are stupidity (and there are very few stupid traders trading such large accounts), or an intent to mark down the TSLA price in a 'visible' fashion, with as much 'bang for the bucks' as possible. One way to do that is to start false rumors and exaggerate negative news about the company, the other way, lacking sufficiently negative news, is to pressure-sell in such a spiky/icicle fashion with an intent to financially gain from the harm of other market participants. Both are illegal I believe.

I'm not attributing every drop in the price to active price manipulation efforts of 'shorts' - but these four spikes yesterday and today were very suspicious in nature.