TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

Erm, all of them?

I'd say - having worked on plugins/EVs for the last 7 years and the price bracket they work in gives Nissan & GM a leg up among traditional OEMs. Unless, people outside China actually start buying Chinese EVs.

Its the premium OEMs that will be hit the hardest.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla shares rise on hopes stock will join the S&P 500 benchmark, unleashing new investor money

Story about an issue that was predicted here at least 1, maybe 2 years ago.

Yeah, CNBC has about 1-2 years worth of positive Tesla news to catch up with, but at least they are working on their backlog now!!

 

[avoigt]

Charles Gasparino‏Verified account @CGasparino
question of the day: how much money in total has the $TSLAQ crowd lost over the past 2 weeks?--tell me i dont know how to bait mom's basement dwellers LOL!


7m7 minutes ago
Ihor Dusaniwsky Retweeted Mark McMillen

Since October 22nd, $TSLA shorts are down -$2.99 billion in mark-to-market losses, bringing year-to-date mark-to-market losses to -$2.09 billion.

 

[tivoboy]

Be extra cautious here (only if you are trading or in options). Getting over 356$ is hitting a target, staying over it will be harder than 345.5$. Just my .02$.

 

[anthonyj]

Buying back my 420 shares on the next pullback. Keeping my calls. Yolo

 

[gora321]

I know what is going on!
I bought 18 shares yesterday in the middle of MMD.
When those big guys saw that they couldn't resist to do the same today!

ps. you know the feeling when you put it into MMD?

 

[gora321]

OK, I like the trend, but why is Morningstar forecasting for dates way into the past?

Looks like living in 2013

 

[Fact Checking]

I'd say - having worked on plugins/EVs for the last 7 years and the price bracket they work in gives Nissan & GM a leg up among traditional OEMs.

I think they'll be pretty vulnerable once Tesla starts leasing the $35k Model 3.

The residual value of 3 year old Model 3's should still be in the $25k range, that would make the lease ~$400 per month.

A $20k ICE car with a 3 year residual value of $10k (as ICE cars start depreciating faster due to their increasingly uncertain future resale value) has a leasing rate of ~$350 per month.

The gas price savings on top of that will make leasing a Tesla a no-brainer decision economically, even if you don't have the money to buy a $35k car outright - and then we haven't even factored in insurance savings on (much) higher safety, the maintenance savings and the aesthetics advantages.

So I think a leased $35k Model 3 will be the death knell of all things ICE in the $20k and higher price segments - and not even super high volume OEMs like Nissan & GM will be able to survive that. Yes, they are advertising $14,999 and $19,999 base models, but most of their profits are in the $20k+ price range of higher trim level sales.

 

[Unpilot]

Wow big sell at 11:12

 

[sundaymorning]

Slow burn.
Sorry shorts, no Christmas this year.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Maybe it isn't strong, simply that dividends are weak for the sector average as well? Agree it seems odd though, it's a "0"

Any automotive stock that is paying dividends, instead of investing in the future, is doomed to fail.

 

[DragonWatch]

FO-09 Observations today ~ closeout time (here).

Toured Monte Carlo today ~ mostly outside port area. First, I think my (our) two adult kayaks and two GrandPups kayaks (armada) would hold their water when compared to these yachts ~ bar none Saw one Model S, and two Model Xs; one of the Xs was a taxi

I acted like a kid in the candy shop when I shouted out “look a Tesla.” My poor wife, I think she is ready to arrange for me to be put in the bilge pump section of the ship. Not sure i’ll still get WiFi down there

Okay, you guys/gals take care of the stock price

 

[jeewee3000]

Not true.

First of all we already had a higher high today like in the previous days which is very positive given the long $100 run up. Secondly momentum counts and although a set back would be justified we only see one direction these days and that is up. A lower level test would only be to confirm the run up anyway.

Last not least with every $ up we make more shorts nervous and some will decide to realizer losses rather than having another sleepless night. That will fuel the up movement even more.

Given the crazy high amount of shorts a squeeze cannot be ruled out but I believe its almost impossible to predict if at all and when. Situation of a squeeze is kind of complex.

IMO a continues up run is more healthy and stable too. A squeeze may turn a crazy jump and then we see it fall down to still higher levels but that would attract day traders and shorts as well as option trader again causing volatility.

This board has only be overoptimistic with some members predicting high jumps in a short timeframe.

So far looking at that what I call consensus here its been all happening and there is more to come.

Patience .... lean back and enjoy the show!

View attachment 350815

I agree with your post in the sence that we are in a strong uptrend, but that doesn't make a fade into close unlikely. As a matter of fact, it's what has been going on since my last post you disagreed with.

To be clear: we're both correct if you will. I was talking about very short term (day trading) and you were talking about a less-short-term uptrend.

 

[avoigt]

Another two cities in Germany has been sentenced by a judge to ban Diesel cars.

In the meantime large German car manufacturers do all they can to avoid compensating any HW changes to comply with emission rules. They claim technology is not available until after 2020. VW and Daimler are willing to pay up to €3k but I believe it when I see it. BMW does say no....

Köln und Bonn müssen Fahrverbote einführen

VW und Daimler ringen sich Diesel-Lösung ab

 

[ZsoZso]

Yeah, CNBC has about 1-2 years worth of positive Tesla news to catch up with, but at least they are working on their backlog now!!

But how fast is their positive Tesla article production ramp ?
Will they catch up with demand in 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely ?
Or is it going to take several years or bankwuptcy ?

 

[sub]

My go private shares can see green from here.

 

[NicoV]

View attachment 350805

shorting the resistance

 

[SpaceCash]

If I had shorted vigorously this morning I'd be incontinent now. Good thing none of us here are so foolish

 

[Reciprocity]

I think they'll be pretty vulnerable once Tesla starts leasing the $35k Model 3.

The residual value of 3 year old Model 3's should still be in the $25k range, that would make the lease ~$400 per month.

A $20k ICE car with a 3 year residual value of $10k (as ICE cars start depreciating faster due to their increasingly uncertain future resale value) has a leasing rate of ~$350 per month.

The gas price savings on top of that will make leasing a Tesla a no-brainer decision economically, even if you don't have the money to buy a $35k car outright - and then we haven't even factored in insurance savings on (much) higher safety, the maintenance savings and the aesthetics advantages.

So I think a leased $35k Model 3 will be the death knell of all things ICE in the $20k and higher price segments - and not even super high volume OEMs like Nissan & GM will be able to survive that. Yes, they are advertising $14,999 and $19,999 base models, but most of their profits are in the $20k+ price range of higher trim level sales.

ICE also depreciate faster as they age due to an increase in maint costs. Timing belts, brakes, tuneups. The more miles you drive the value there is an EV, no matter how many miles they have on them. The maint cost is fairly flat over say a 10 year life. You might think about upgrading the battery after 10 years or need new rotors, but other then that, the rest is pretty flat lined. While many many things need fixed and replaced in a 10 year high millage car.

 

[shlokavica22]

If I had shorted vigorously this morning I'd be incontinent now. Good thing none of us here are so foolish

I did
Shorted at 354 and covered at 351. On the long side I have a call that now costs me $1.5 less.