TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[gora321]

VW, Daimler agree to pay for diesel retrofits in Germany

 

[gora321]

Ron Baron was on CNBC this morning - as CNBC video doesn't play for me, might be the same for others, so here's the YT link:

Ron Baron brilliant!

I do not understand CNBC. They bring Ron Baron and they think they can get the effect with negative questions?
This is a lack of mental capacity on the CNBC side.

 

[humbaba]

Can you help me how this is related to the market action thread and the investors forum?

This is not the place to do smalltalk on any Tesla related thing which comes into your mind... i know you are not alone but I don't like to scroll over 100s of off topic posts every day. Create your own thread for this!

A reasonable request.

IMO it is relevant, albeit indirectly. This is a regulatory requirement which Tesla will have to meet, which can have an impact on market action. My expectation is that they could retrofit vehicles by an OTA update that utilized the horn speaker in order to comply, but what if they actually had to physically fit a vehicle? Hence, IMO, this is discussion worthy.

Also, is the market open where you are at? I know I try harder to stay topical during market hours, and I believe others do the same. So while I understand your frustration (and with recent posting levels I've resorted a lot more to skimming) I'm not certain the referenced post crossed the line.

 

[Tslynk67]

Electric cars on Switzerland’s roads will be required by mid-2019 to make an artificial noise as a safety measure for the blind, reports the Sunday newspaper NZZ am Sonntag.

Out of the 4.5 million cars on Switzerland’s roads in 2017 only 15,000 were electric and 67,000 hybrid. However, the government is pushing for a significant increase by 2022 as part of efforts to meet climate targets.

Switzerland adopts EU rules on electric car noise

Franky, this is ludicrous. Cars make plenty of noise from the tyres alone and blind people tend to have way better hearing than sighted, so it's a poor rationale IMO.

 

[avoigt]

Ron Baron was on CNBC this morning - as CNBC video doesn't play for me, might be the same for others, so here's the YT link:

Some interesting new information in that interview:

Ron:
"

• annual rate of cash flow of $ 5.5 bn
• Company valued 11-12 X cash flow. Thats not big.
• Its clear that they are going to triple to $ 60bn in 3-4 years
• They are a point now where incremental investments are going to be incredible profitable
• The are going from 5k/w to 7k with virtuously no additional investment
• internally they were hoping for 20 (GM). And he kept calling me he gotta cut costs
• Gross profits are going up even if the sales price going down (MS). The same is going to happen with the M3
• I think the gross profit for the 3 is going to be where the S and X are and the Y is going to be the best they ever had
• I am a fan of women as fas as executives ... they think different than men thats clear ... hopefully she will be like Gwen
• Elon is right into prime, right in the sweet spot .. he said he will be the last guy out of this company"

 

[avoigt]

Franky, this is ludicrous. Cars make plenty of noise from the tyres alone and blind people tend to have way better hearing than sighted, so it's a poor rationale IMO.

The EU rule is only a tempered noise up to 20 km/h (12 m/h).

So not anything that is really very relevant. Still I call this obsolete too.

 

[ZachF]

@ Fact Checking: What do you think of the competition coming from VW (in coooperation with Ford) currently?

They are planning to prodcure mass-market EV's for below 22'000 USD in Germany. What do you think about that possible competition (timing-wise, quality-wise?)

My question is based on this article: New subcompact VW all-electric I.D. Concept vehicle could start at $21,000

I am afraid of the competition from VW (I see this as the most dangerous competitor atm).

You (and others) are thinking about the question wrong.

These "Tesla killers" won't kill Tesla... They'll kill ICE cars. The problem is analysts segregating EVs and ICE into different markets.

All those "Iphone killers" never killed the Iphone either. They killed all the phones that weren't smartphones.

 

[Don TLR]

This afternoon, I was walking across a parking lot and was reminded of one reason I hate ICEs. It's started getting colder and people leave there engines idling to keep their cabins warm. Also some people don't maintain their vehicles and they spew out incompletely burned hydrocarbons and smoke from oil getting past worn rings.
You don't even have to believe in global climate change to see the need for elimination of the ICE.

It happens all summer long here in the desert, spouses sitting in the cars while the other is in shopping. 110 degrees car turn that car into an Easy Bake Oven in no time. That's why having a Tesla make so much sense when running into the store and or leaving your pets for a few minutes. I remember seeing a post somewhere on the forum, "Don't worry Fluffy is relaxing comfortably at 72 degrees listening to smooth jazz, no need to break our windows"

 

[avoigt]

I agree with much of your post, but here I disagree a bit:

• Workers won't be affected other than changing employers: the EV transition is going to start a huge boom and demand for automotive experience is going to be significant.
• ICE power train specific know-how is going the way of buggy whip making skills, but there's a huge range of other worker expertise that's valuable in EV making.
• Automotive parts industries not related to the ICE power train will boom: there's literally a billion units of ICE vehicles to replace.
• Automotive electronics is going to increase 10x in size: instead of a small lead-acid battery EVs are moving mobile homes with near limitless amounts of always-on electricity in comparison. We've only scratched the surface of possibilities ...

I.e. ICE bankruptcies will cause anxiety and drama, but not much real disruption in the long run.

Germany could boom: think of the millions of automotive jobs outsourced over the past few decades - they'll have to be brought back home again to be able to compete with vertically integrated Tesla.

It would be good for Tesla as well: automotive workers for hire in the European Gigafactories, more factory buildings to purchase and convert.

The EV transition might be catastrophic to many shareholders of ICE companies, and I'm sure there will be drama and bailouts - but other than that it's a huge economic opportunity even for ICE specialized Germany.

Your view is more positive in terms that the industry in Germany being able to transform fast enough my view is more negative with the big Automakers and that they will be able to do what is required in the next 2 years. I hope you are right though! The opportunity for a booming industry with strong growth for the global market is just out there.

Clearly the EV movement is a huge opportunity for automakers. The reason why I am more negative is that I believe VW and Daimler as well as BMW have underestimated the market and speed of change and they still do today. If they do not have a really compelling EV on the market in 12- 24 months than the reality of most new buyers want an EV may surprise them again. It could be too late then. For clarity that does not mean them to go bankrupt in 2 years from now but too late to catch up with a moving target. ICE sale will still happen for a longer period.

The EVs they plan to bring out after 2020 and which we did not see yet should been in production now. That did not happen. We can fairly assume that the just do not know how to do it. Be it the ID or the i4 they will sell it but as we all know just cannibalize their ICE business and as the specs likely will not compare loose buyers and revenue to Tesla.

Outsourced jobs will in my view not come back. You need to build the know-how and innovation first and even then most of the car markets of relevance are international and not in Germany with a shrinking population.

However I fully agree that the EV boom will be a boom for the OEM supplier market and innovative Mittelstand we have here which is the largest labour market in Germany and not the large ICE producers. They will grow and prosper.

In terms of a German GF4, I really hope that happens and will help Tesla as well as Germany as such.

 

[gora321]

Franky, this is ludicrous. Cars make plenty of noise from the tyres alone and blind people tend to have way better hearing than sighted, so it's a poor rationale IMO.

I was climbing on hill with a bike when Model S approached me slowly from behind. I could hear tyres because it was outside the town where is no noise. When ICEs will be out of function we will hear everything much better.

 

[Bobfitz1]

So Ford is now getting into the only mode of electric transport (except planes and rockets) that Elon has publicly stated Tesla has no interest in....scooters. Classic Ford!
Ford Acquires Electric Scooter Startup Spin

I nominate Bob Lutz to head this new Ford startup! Hard driving, experience with both ICE and EVs. There are so many E Scooter companies now. Ford needs market differentiation. Muscle Scooters? Lutz is also media savy and a minor celebrity. So he could appear in Ford commercials riding his Muscle Scooter.

 

[avoigt]

I was climbing on hill with a bike when Model S approached me slowly from behind. I could hear tyres because it was outside the town where is no noise. When ICEs will be out of function we will hear everything much better.

That is the right approach and I predict the same will happen in city centers.

Our kids and grand kids will one days ask with big eyes if its really true that all cars did pollute the air and that they did make this noise and how that was?

Its the same that happened 100 years ago in all our cities with horses dung in the roads to an extend that you could not walk over a street and just imagine the smelliness. Non of us can imagine today that this was a huge issue for the city authorities back then and there has been an entire industry busy just trying to manage that.

 

[humbaba]

Franky, this is ludicrous. Cars make plenty of noise from the tyres alone and blind people tend to have way better hearing than sighted, so it's a poor rationale IMO.

At higher speed they make plenty of noise. When I was younger I had a surprise encounter with (I think it was) a Lincoln town car on a residential street. Never heard it.

I was climbing on hill with a bike when Model S approached me slowly from behind. I could hear tyres because it was outside the town where is no noise. When ICEs will be out of function we will hear everything much better.

I think you have good hearing. When I've ridden a bike, particularly up a hill, the blood pumping from the exercise has made a rushing sound in my ears that makes it more difficult to hear outside noise, including traffic.

I'm not saying this is a huge problem, but I think it should not be dismissed so lightly.

 

[shlokavica22]

Clearly the EV movement is a huge opportunity for automakers. The reason why I am more negative is that I believe VW and Daimler as well as BMW have underestimated the market and speed of change and they still do today. If they do not have a really compelling EV on the market in 12- 24 months than the reality of most new buyers want an EV may surprise them again. It could be too late then.

They are in a very bad situation. They have a lot of assets valued with the assumption they will pump products at full speed for at least 5 more years.
EVs share at most 50% of the parts ICE has. That means a lot of their capacity (and expertise) is obsolete in the world of EVs. And for the other part they certainly don't have the capacity (expertise is also under question).

The music is already slowing down for them.

 

[HG Wells]

My 2013 Nissan Leaf has a noise maker. I thought they had been required for years.

 

[ZachF]

They are in a very bad situation. They have a lot of assets valued with the assumption they will pump products at full speed for at least 5 more years.
EVs share at most 50% of the parts ICE has. That means a lot of their capacity (and expertise) is obsolete in the world of EVs. And for the other part they certainly don't have the capacity (expertise is also under question).

The music is already slowing down for them.

A lot of the automakers have outsourced almost everything except engine production as well... Even the bodies are built by other companies like Magna/etc. When you factor in most of them outsourcing the entire battery and electric drivetrain to companies like LG there may be very little the company itself actually makes when it comes to EVs.

 

[cheshire cat]

Ron Baron brilliant!

I do not understand CNBC. They bring Ron Baron and they think they can get the effect with negative questions?
This is a lack of mental capacity on the CNBC side.

Well it IS cnbc shame sh1t different pile

 

[cheshire cat]

Franky, this is ludicrous. Cars make plenty of noise from the tyres alone and blind people tend to have way better hearing than sighted, so it's a poor rationale IMO.

You've obviously never driven thro' Padstow in summer time, one small nudge an you can have someone literally sitting on your bonnet ( frunk lid) not to mention the small children, pushchairs and dogs they are supposed to be in charge of !!!

 

[Fobble]

Some interesting new information in that interview:

Ron:
"

• annual rate of cash flow of $ 5.5 bn
• Company valued 11-12 X cash flow. Thats not big.
• Its clear that they are going to triple to $ 60bn in 3-4 years
• They are a point now where incremental investments are going to be incredible profitable
• The are going from 5k/w to 7k with virtuously no additional investment
• internally they were hoping for 20 (GM). And he kept calling me he gotta cut costs
• Gross profits are going up even if the sales price going down (MS). The same is going to happen with the M3
• I think the gross profit for the 3 is going to be where the S and X are and the Y is going to be the best they ever had
• I am a fan of women as fas as executives ... they think different than men thats clear ... hopefully she will be like Gwen
• Elon is right into prime, right in the sweet spot .. he said he will be the last guy out of this company"

Did Ron Baron just mention TSLA will triple in a few years, and 20x in 10-12 years?

 

[shlokavica22]

A lot of the automakers have outsourced almost everything except engine production as well... Even the bodies are built by other companies like Magna/etc. When you factor in most of them outsourcing the entire battery and electric drivetrain to companies like LG there may be very little the company itself actually makes when it comes to EVs.

The engine is one of the most expensive parts though. The one that becomes obsolete.
Regarding the batteries- this is actually the part that will make or brake the competitiveness of future EVs. Relying on outside expertise on that is a recipe for disaster. Not to mention the fact it's a sellers market and they will be paying through the nose.