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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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You forgot Honda.

BTW, all bankruptcies and the bailouts will happen, including Ford. Not because of Tesla, but because of the next recession.

I'll bite. Why are you expecting a recession? In my experience, recessions are triggered when the economy 'overheats'. This is a euphemism for economic activity that pushes the oil price to a very high level. This in turns makes everything expensive, and the first hair trigger brings it tumbling like a house of cards.

Immediately prior to the GFC, the oil price was $150 US per barrel. The trigger in that instance was people unable to afford repayments on sub prime mortgages.

The next heated economy will be driven by the cleantech revolution. It will REDUCE oil consumption. For the first time, the boom will not lead us to bust.
 
Since the market is closed I can say this.

You gals/guys need to step up your game. I can keep up with this thread in half the time it used to take me.

Seems like the post count is a little lower than usual.
We aren't panicking seeing our options go down by 50 percent after tweets anymore...thank goodness those days seem over.
 
Since the market is closed I can say this.

You gals/guys need to step up your game. I can keep up with this thread in half the time it used to take me.

Seems like the post count is a little lower than usual.
That's because everyone went down the ASMR video rabbit hole. Hmmm, an ASMR video with a rabbit in it...
 
Now that the "stealing elections" rhetoric is getting heated - and we have the possibility of a long recount battle in Florida (and Arizona ?) - wondering whether that will make the market somewhat nervous.

If you are a partisan it will be important but not market shaking. In the vast scheme of things, the die is cast in large part with Trump free to do much as he wants this year and the real turmoil will come in January and later in a struggle between the House investigations and Trump. That will roil the markets.

We would all like some bipartisan victories on a range of issues and some may happen which would be good for the market, say, a sensible infrastructure bill. If he were smart Trump could push for things people really want in preparation for 2020. He would have to curb his temptation to bully, however, and he might have to give up the easy path of governing by pushing the buttons which divide us.

This belongs under the Market Politics thread. Please respond there. (I'm too tired/lazy to respond with this there.)
 
I'll bite. Why are you expecting a recession? In my experience, recessions are triggered when the economy 'overheats'. This is a euphemism for economic activity that pushes the oil price to a very high level. This in turns makes everything expensive, and the first hair trigger brings it tumbling like a house of cards.

Immediately prior to the GFC, the oil price was $150 US per barrel. The trigger in that instance was people unable to afford repayments on sub prime mortgages.

The next heated economy will be driven by the cleantech revolution. It will REDUCE oil consumption. For the first time, the boom will not lead us to bust.
Recession happens every time there is a Republican president. Heated clean tech economy is still a few years away. There is nothing to stop a recession from happening before that time.
 
Or you can even just SIMPLY point out that the isht coming out the back of buses, trucks, every ICE vehicle smells bad, and has gotta be bad for their aspirational Beverly Hills skin. Honestly, since test driving the S, I really do notice this a lot more and it irks me now like it never did before. Exhaust is just nasty

I've been looking for a picture of a kid pissing into a river, with some campers drinking from the same river further downstream. I was hoping to caption it, "why is it wrong to piss into our drinking water supply, yet okay to release carcinogens into our air supply?"

Figured that pictures would get the point across more clearly.

Edit: Oh! Didn't realize it's actually a big deal (even though this is done regularly in third world countries): peeing into water supply - Google Search
 
I've been looking for a picture of a kid pissing into a river, with some campers drinking from the same river further downstream. I was hoping to caption it, "why is it wrong to piss into our drinking water supply, yet okay to release carcinogens into our air supply?"

Figured that pictures would get the point across more clearly.

Edit: Oh! Didn't realize it's actually a big deal (even though this is done regularly in third world countries): peeing into water supply - Google Search

But, but, Gwyneth told me it was good for you...
 
Or you can even just SIMPLY point out that the isht coming out the back of buses, trucks, every ICE vehicle smells bad, and has gotta be bad for their aspirational Beverly Hills skin. Honestly, since test driving the S, I really do notice this a lot more and it irks me now like it never did before. Exhaust is just nasty

Aftermarket off-topic contribution: Alex Honnold agrees with you. As detailed in that thread, Honnold was recently on the Joe Rogan podcast and discussed his foundation. As part of that discussion, he mentioned the nastiness of vehicle exhaust as yet another reason to go electric.

Honnold has a large following in the alpine world. That podcast is closing in on 1M views since publication at the end of October. This is just one more small example of how even people who have no particular interest in vehicles or EVs per se are coming around to realize that ICE is a dying technology (Honnold came at this from the solar PV side, and the EV-is-the-future realization flows nicely from that).
 
Honnold has a large following in the alpine world. That podcast is closing in on 1M views since publication at the end of October. This is just one more small example of how even people who have no particular interest in vehicles or EVs per se are coming around to realize that ICE is a dying technology (Honnold came at this from the solar PV side, and the EV-is-the-future realization flows nicely from that).

Agreed, and the ongoing irreversible transition to EVs is feeding on very significant network effects, which are slow to start up but effectively unstoppable once in motion. I'd expect a very quick 'phase change' to happen in the next 1-2 years: support for poison gas emitting vehicles will 'melt catastrophically', and the growing negative social stigma attached to owning and operating an ICE vehicle by choice is going to become very significant to the majority of new car buyers.

The result is going to be that even those are going to try and buy EV vehicles who otherwise neutral or hostile to them - just due to peer pressure.

Interesting side note: the 'rolling coal' incidents are also speeding up the EV conversion process: such disruptive behavior is promoted by far right elements of the U.S. political spectrum who are ... rather friendly with historic users of poison gases in other, even darker contexts - and these people are already stigmatized as out of touch losers. Doubling down on coal and gas is not helping their argument, at all, and will achieve the exact opposite effect.

The law of unintended consequences ...

Put differently: we should think of the EV transition not as a wishful future goal, but that the EV transition is the Fourth Industrial Revolution which is already in full swing. I also think that effects on economies and on everyday life will be much more significant than what even we EV-supporters can imagine today.
 
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