TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

Did Ron Baron just mention TSLA will triple in a few years, and 20x in 10-12 years?

Correct. The 1 trillion statement has been already done a couple of times though.

 

[brian45011]

But regarding the choices for the two director vacancies, wouldn't that be subject to a shareholder vote? Shouldn't ordinary shareholders be able to make nominations?

There were no shareholder votes for the most recent three appointments to the Board: Denholm (2014) and Johnson-Rice/Murdoch (2017).
Nominations will be open as existing Directors' terms expire and they run for re-appointment.

 

[gora321]

I think you have good hearing. When I've ridden a bike, particularly up a hill, the blood pumping from the exercise has made a rushing sound in my ears that makes it more difficult to hear outside noise, including traffic.

I'm not saying this is a huge problem, but I think it should not be dismissed so lightly.

Depends on situation. When running a bike at +30km/h I hear nothing. The noise of wind in my ears blocks everything. I don't hear even ICEs, trucks...It is dangerous situation when you completely depend on a driver behind. I'm looking to install small mirror in my helmet. This is another reason why autonomous drive is desirable!

I must say that Model S was very noisy because of small stones jumping under the tyres in big inclination.

Both represents edge conditions and the rest is somewhere between.

 

[Tslynk67]

Correct. The 1 trillion statement has been already done a couple of times though.

Does no harm to get it out there again though, does it? Think of the number of times we've had to endure the same drivel from the shorty shorts, now it's our time to shine a bit!

P.S. Pre-Market looking a bit crappy on tech, with 1% down on many stocks, but $TSLA looking stronger with just a 0.5% dip

 

[Unpilot]

The trillion dollar figure is sort of interesting from the stand point of that is the benchmark for a REALLY big company.
IMO Tesla will set new bench marks for REALLY REALLY big company's.

 

[Tslynk67]

Depends on situation. When running a bike at +30km/h I hear nothing. The noise of wind in my ears blocks everything. I don't hear even ICEs, trucks...It is dangerous situation when you completely depend on a driver behind. I'm looking to install small mirror in my helmet. This is another reason why autonomous drive is desirable!

I must say that Model S was very noisy because of small stones jumping under the tyres in big inclination.

Both represents edge conditions and the rest is somewhere between.

I've a small mirror on the end of my handle-bar - doesn't totally remove the need to turn your head (a "lifesaver" we used to call it when I rode motorbikes), but it allows you a general awareness of the situation.

I don't wear a cycle-helmet as all research points to them leading to higher injury/mortality-rate. Yes, I know that's somewhat counter-intuitive, but it's the case...

Sorry folks, TOTALLY OT...

 

[Ellec]

Strange, headlines retracted on Marketwatch

.

 

[ZachF]

The engine is one of the most expensive parts though. The one that becomes obsolete.
Regarding the batteries- this is actually the part that will make or brake the competitiveness of future EVs. Relying on outside expertise on that is a recipe for disaster. Not to mention the fact it's a sellers market and they will be paying through the nose.

If LG makes the battery and drivetrain already, and the auto manufacturer outsources the body to a company like Magna, there is nothing to stop LG from cutting out the middle man, designing it's own EV, and contracting Magna to build the body.

Personally, I'm surprised LG hasn't announced EV plans yet.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Having a "no smoking" section in a restaurant is like having a "no peeing" section in a swimming pool.

I gave that post its first LOVE.

 

[RobStark]

If LG makes the battery and drivetrain already, and the auto manufacturer outsources the body to a company like Magna, there is nothing to stop LG from cutting out the middle man, designing it's own EV, and contracting Magna to build the body.

Personally, I'm surprised LG hasn't announced EV plans yet.

LG doesn't have world wide car distribution.

And Magna has capacity to manufacture about 250k cars per year.

And that capacity is already spoken for.

It would take significant capital to expand significantly.

 

[Words of HABIT]

...
I am afraid of the competition from VW (I see this as the most dangerous competitor atm).

I am not afraid. Why is it so difficult to understand the more auto companies manufacturing comparable EVs the better, the better for that manufacturer (in the long run), the better for the Environment, the better for Tesla. IMHO they couldn't come soon enough. Humanity depends on it. As a Tesla Long Bull investor, and for the well being of future generations, I am not afraid of other autos bringing compelling EVs to the market, I am afraid of them NOT bringing compelling EVs to the market.

 

[replicant]

Interesting to see where the general auto industry is heading.

Seriously, The economics are going to change fast. Germans are going to take huge hits on the 3-series level sedans and Q5 level SUVs from Teslas in the $50-60k range and the Japanese are going to take hits on the Camrys and Accords with $35-40k Teslas.

Here are my predictions for 2023.

US: Ford - pickups, GM - bailout
Japan: Toyota, Nissan - head in sand waiting for bailout; Mazada - bankruptcy; Subaru - takeout
Germany: BMW - bankruptcy / takeout; Mercedes - maybe can make it + bailout; VW - maybe can make it + bailout
Italy: Fiat - bankruptcy

Does anyone know when Tesla is expected to mass produce the Model Y?

The reveal of the mid size SUV is set for mid-March, but the actual delivery date will be the day when competitors realize Tesla has come for their cash cow and give the final blow to the industry's profit.

It probably isn't a coincidence if that day arrive right when Tesla is finally:

1. a proven mass manfucaturer (10+k/w)
2. a sustainably profitable one
   
3. developing its service department for volume, worldwide (the next hell test?)
4. fully integrated with Grohmann
5. building the Shanghai factory
   
6. decided on the location of the European GF (hopefully)

I just hope Tesla can keep up with service (in volume, worldwide), that the Model Y will be both sexY and easy to produce (cf. X ramp up and not-so-great design IMO) and that the Gigactory can now be quickly duplicated with cell, battery back and vehicles production lines at minimal capex.

 

[winfield100]

That theory has ended up becoming a news item:
Could Tesla CEO Elon Musk Be 'Fact Checking' Anonymously on Enthusiast Forums?



Folks can’t even sneeze around here without it becoming news...

<achoo>
Short interest down from ~40 millions ~April/May 2018 to 32 now, lost $1.99 billions since oct 22,
20% covered
Elephants no longer quietly stampeding for the exits as losses rapidly mount
Remaining shorts hold ~$10 billions more
<achoo> <—sneeze

 

[HG Wells]

Strange, headlines retracted on MarketwatchView attachment 351082 .

Boss Short:

Darn those pesky Market Watch interns.
I was sure we could knock the price down ten or twenty dollars with that recycled Tesla price target of $195.

Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[neroden]

You can help. Look at what Mike Cannon-Brooks is doing on Twitter and help promote "fair dinkum" energy. The name is a bit naff but it seems to be getting some momentum. It also helps that one of our few billionaires is leading the charge.

Yeah, I absolutely love this....

About this topic, from Sophie Vorrath, who always writes good articles:

A “bat symbol” for renewables: Cannon-Brookes launches “fair dinkum” power

 

[pz1975]

Strange, headlines retracted on MarketwatchView attachment 351082 .

This was from August 21, 2018: Tesla stock ends higher as JP Morgan joins deal doubters

“Tesla Inc. shares reversed course Monday after spending most of the session in the red following a price target cut by JP Morgan to $195 from $308...”

 

[UncaNed]

<achoo>
Short interest down from ~40 millions ~April/May 2018 to 32 now, lost $1.99 billions since oct 22,
20% covered
Elephants no longer quietly stampeding for the exits as losses rapidly mount
Remaining shorts hold ~$10 billions more
<achoo> <—sneeze

If memory serves, weren't we all yammering about those mean, nasty shorts months ago when the SP was rising while bouncing all over the place between $340 and $360 just like it is now? Just because the SP gradually increases, won't it still be the same old volatile, short-infested Tesla stock even though now there are many more reasons to be confident in Tesla's success?

 

[ZsoZso]

@ Fact Checking: What do you think of the competition coming from VW (in coooperation with Ford) currently?

They are planning to prodcure mass-market EV's for below 22'000 USD in Germany. What do you think about that possible competition (timing-wise, quality-wise?)

My question is based on this article: New subcompact VW all-electric I.D. Concept vehicle could start at $21,000

I am afraid of the competition from VW (I see this as the most dangerous competitor atm).

That car will be a very serious competitor to the Mitsubishi iMiev (see in my avatar) !
As for Tesla, they are not even playing in a nearby market segment. Tesla does not do tiny econo sub-compact city cars - aka golf cart replacements.

 

[ZachF]

NASDAQ and TSLA both down about 0.8% at start

 

[neroden]

That doesn't say that they are lenient on the rich. It says they are hard on everyone, but fairly equally. In the US overall taxes are far lower, but they fall overwhelmingly on the highest earners. (meaning the tax system is highly progressive)

Again, you're evading my point. And you're repeating misleading talking points.

US taxes fall on the highest earners, yes. Those with the highest unearned income, by contrast, get a free ride. Great for us stock speculators, but not really a good way to run a country.

The biggest and most successful scam run by the Republican Party in the US is convincing ignorant voters that this country's rich people "earn" their money by "working". The IRS actually has definitions for "earned income" and "unearned income". Guess which sort rich people like me get most of their income from -- the "unearned" category.

This isn't an illusion shared by people in the UK; they know that their aristocrats and billionaires get their money from unearned income. And most people are OK with that -- just as I don't mind if someone wins the lottery -- but the point is, they are perceiving the situation accurately. In the US, we have a lot of people with a misperception.

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Back to Market Action. MMD in progress -- I really wish I had the personality to be a day trader, because I could be making so much money on this pattern.