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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I look forward to watching the crash test videos for that vehicle.
Here it is
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Thanks for sharing this really fine analysis. Reminds me that I must increase my investment in Tesla this week. I remember the era of Apple naysayers all too well. Wish I had the funds to invest in Apple when it was $13 a share. Live and hopefully learn.
Indeed! Ark Invest's $1400/share thesis totally ignores Tesla Energy, which is a much more certain to pay out over the next 5 years vs wide-spread autonomous vehicles.

Elon says he expects TE to be bigger than auto. I expect it will also be faster (track-mode Megapack?)

So I say Ark is low-balling TSLA numbers, missing a large portion of future revenue streams.

The scenario I really, REALLY want to see is the closely held one done by own very own @Fact Checking

Who's with me? :D

Cheers!
 
Well no, it's simply not practical. It (the Twizy) is one of the cheapest EVs here in the UK. In fact one of the cheapest 4-wheeled vehicles in the UK to buy new. It costs under £7000 (+ battery hire). It isn't a price issue with that one. It has very little storage or passenger space, has a very limited range, limited top speed and has salon-style doors at the sides without a stock option for windows. You're completely exposed to the elements. (edit: apparently you can get zip-on Windows. Nice). The fact it looks goofy is just a side-effect. Honestly, if people aren't so bothered about looks then they're at least bothered by practicality. These vehicles offer neither in my opinion and that's why very few people are driving them.

They remind me of this:

3c58b072-80c6-4fe4-bd77-a3b8023a733a_3.d88f70ff6884621607fa48df1cda78b0.jpeg
+#540/year for the battery.
It's hiding lots of the cost in the battery rental.
The price being too high is obviously related to utility.
 
The constant lies about the German energy mix make me mad.

Unfortunately often repeated and now Bloomberg does it with regards to EVs.

The true and correct numbers for 2018 are

not renewable: 45.7%
Nuclear: 13.1%
Renewable: 40.4
Strommix Deutschland 2018 - Aktueller Energiemix und Entwicklung - Wiado.de

Compare this to the number presented from Bloomberg below. They say its 59% but it is 45.7%. No question still not good enough but why do they tell plain lies to people?

Also worth to mention Tesla all SC in Germany are 100% renewable energy and Tesla aims to produce end of 2019 the 3, 100 % with renewable energy. Use that for your studies and mention that you can recycle an EV Battery almost 100% with very low energy and give it a second live. Likely a second 1 m Miles. Make the math and talk about it !


Report: Battery production could offset emissions gains from electric cars

Energy sources for battery production, by country [CREDIT: Bloomberg]

Bloomberg:

"Although Germany is known for having one of the fastest-growing solar energy industries in the world, the country still gets between 22 percent and 37 percent of its energy from coal, and more where battery factories are located.

Consulting firm Berylls Strategy Advisers notes that for a 30-kwh Nissan Leaf will take three years of driving in Germany before it makes up for the extra pollution created in building its battery.
Although Germany is known for having one of the fastest-growing solar energy industries in the world, the country still gets between 22 percent and 37 percent of its energy from coal, and more where battery factories are located.


Quiz questions:

If a Tesla Battery is 100% carbon free produced and you charge mainly with supercharger which is 100 % renewable or at home where I have 100% renewable energy how long does it take driving before you make up for the extra pollution created on building the Battery, Bloomberg?
 
Tesla has a 97% nps score. Thats incredible!

Tesla Motors | NPS Benchmarks

Net Promoter Score®, or NPS® is a loyalty metric developed by Fred Reichheld and was introduced by him in his 2003 Harvard Business Review article "The One Number You Need to Grow". At its core, NPS can be termed as a metric that measures a customer’s willingness to recommend a brand’s product and services to their friends, family and colleagues.
 
Tesla has a 97% nps score. Thats incredible!

Tesla Motors | NPS Benchmarks

Net Promoter Score®, or NPS® is a loyalty metric developed by Fred Reichheld and was introduced by him in his 2003 Harvard Business Review article "The One Number You Need to Grow". At its core, NPS can be termed as a metric that measures a customer’s willingness to recommend a brand’s product and services to their friends, family and colleagues.
I'm wholly unsurprised. My test drive was enough to 100% hook me.
 
At $23,000 I was expecting...well...doors for starters, seriously!
15KWH battery, 82 horses, 100mi. range, 0-62 mi. in 13 seconds.
Sorry, there is nothing cool about this EV.
Now let's see what VW can do for $23,000.
View attachment 351603
I actually love the office chairs in there, looks comfy. Wonder why we did not see them on production cars already.
 
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Tesla has a 97% nps score. Thats incredible!

Tesla Motors | NPS Benchmarks

Net Promoter Score®, or NPS® is a loyalty metric developed by Fred Reichheld and was introduced by him in his 2003 Harvard Business Review article "The One Number You Need to Grow". At its core, NPS can be termed as a metric that measures a customer’s willingness to recommend a brand’s product and services to their friends, family and colleagues.
As a comparison:
BMW is -21
BMW UK | NPS Benchmarks
Mercedes: +39
Mercedes-Benz | NPS Benchmarks
Volkswagen +29
Volkswagen | NPS Benchmarks
 
Tesla has a 97% nps score. Thats incredible!

Tesla Motors | NPS Benchmarks

Net Promoter Score®, or NPS® is a loyalty metric developed by Fred Reichheld and was introduced by him in his 2003 Harvard Business Review article "The One Number You Need to Grow". At its core, NPS can be termed as a metric that measures a customer’s willingness to recommend a brand’s product and services to their friends, family and colleagues.

The score was last updated in 2014. Perhaps it doesn't matter and the value would be similar today, but the company has grown a lot since then. I suppose many here would say it has only gotten better since then? :)
 
The score was last updated in 2014. Perhaps it doesn't matter and the value would be similar today, but the company has grown a lot since then. I suppose many here would say it has only gotten better since then? :)

Good catch.

In 2014 the situation has been much worse to put it mildly. Tons of reasons and most of those Tesla got under control since.

Knowing how NPS is calculated the 97% is pretty insane, almost unreal.

I believe the customer satisfaction is today higher than it was back then but obviously we do not know.

In any case if you look at BMW, VW and Daimler partly their numbers are back from 2013. Can you imagine they improved since then? Just saying one or two words: Diesel... Cheating device....

Okay that's been three.
 
This isn't political -- it's pre-political. I am making an argument over economic facts. If someone wants to argue that we should have stock speculators pay lower taxes than working people, that is a political argument, and I've been trying to avoid that argument.

We've got someone here who is flat-out lying about the actual current situation -- the current situation being that stock speculators do pay lower taxes than working people, and this means the ultra-rich pay lower tax rates than the mere 1%ers. I don't like seeing propagandistic lies repeated unchallenged.

Hearing stock speculators referred to as "earners" is like hearing short-sellers referred to as "investors". Sorry, it really ticks me off. Even though I'm a stock speculator.

The economic term you're looking for is "rent".

In the US low income is negative taxed, High income is highly taxed, and rent is taxed pretty low.

Unfortunately, given a global economy, if you tax rent too high, capital will move entirely to other countries, that's why I think we should have a kind of progressive consumption tax. UBI + moderate tax on normal consumption, and high tax on luxury consumption = low consumers pay negative taxes, mid level consumers pay mid level taxes, and high consumers pay high taxes.

You eliminate the problem we have in this country where high income earners, who produce a lot of value, pay high amounts of taxes, and trust-funders who produce nothing, have very little official income so they pay little taxes, but consume large amounts of resources.
 
After I put my reservation in for a Model 3 I wasn't even considering a different new vehicle.

Now that I've had it for 4 months, I honestly don't know what the heck I would do if I couldn't get another one someday!:eek:
Agreed. It is ridiculous whenever someone says Tesla will have a problem with demand. Anyone who has owned (and likely almost anyone who has driven) a Tesla could not claim that without being intentionally dishonest. It just so obvious they make the best car in the world BY FAR!
 
Agreed. It is ridiculous whenever someone says Tesla will have a problem with demand. Anyone who has owned (and likely almost anyone who has driven) a Tesla could not claim that without being intentionally dishonest. It just so obvious they make the best car in the world BY FAR!
Yes. I wasn't even thinking about buying a new car when I took a test drive and ordered the same day. Every time I drive the car, I have a big smile and think this is the best car in the world. Nothing else even comes close. Four years now and it never gets old.
I will never buy another ICE car.
 
I think that says more about you than it does them.

The problem with the Twizy is price.
The problem with the Biomega concept is price.
The problem with Think! was price.

People keep trying and they'll keep failing.

Quite a few Twizzys around brussels - even the police have one...
 
The similarities between Tesla and Apple more and more obvious:

Vertical

integration similarities (Source: ARK Investment Management)
Tesla — "Apple Of Cars" — Entering Its Golden Age | CleanTechnica
Tesla Through the Lens of Apple - ARK Investment Management



ARK invest made some very valid and strong points and I like them pointing out that Apple was as Tesla near bankruptcy too.

Also it needs to be pointed out as you see in the graph that Apple did and does contract manufacturing only whereby Tesla has its own facilities build for good reasons. One reason is there was no other choice for Tesla.

The cost to build those plants have created the $12bn long term debt that are often criticized. IOW the debt is invested CapEx you don't have to pay any more for unlike Apple pays for contract manufacturing every single day. That will help with margin and profits more than it does for Apple where this is a longterm running cost element.

The caveat is the cost of debt or tied up capital interest of Tesla that weight on the balance sheet but this is looking at the tremendous cash Tesla will produce from now on every quarter no issue and a rather short term challenge even with new GFs to be build.

I could not agree more to the analogy and the bright future ahead for Tesla.

To further the point of comparison, Apple actually owns much of the manufacturing equipment in its supplier factories - the outsourced part is mostly the real estate and the labour, it not only owns the manufacturing equipment but usually designs the production methods internally also.
 
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