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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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VW is going to kill Tesla, but first it needs to retrofit those cheat devices. Once they do, they’re going to kill Tesla!

VW Dieselgate Graveyards Grow to Over 300,000 Cars Across U.S.

VW spent $7 billion buying back cars from the public. $7B worth of customers are so fed up with VW they returned their car for a refund. That’s 300,000 customers who may never buy another VW again, let that sink in.

I might be just one data point, but I wouldn’t touch a VW with a stick, let alone drive one.
 
9 VINs reported by 12PM Eastern
Today may turn out to be monster production day.
There could be a happy narrative Tesla can put up about end of March production after all
View attachment 290452
Well, Friday March 30th turned into a great day, but not an epic day:
Screen Shot 2018-04-01 at 8.26.23 PM.png
I can't see consistency in any time period that would allow Tesla to claim high production rate for extended period, a week or more. At least not at 2000+ cars per week, so we will be probably getting some extrapolated data again.

However, there are other ways to look at the issue at hand:
Screen Shot 2018-04-01 at 8.26.39 PM.png
Production in the last four weeks has been WAYYYYY higher than any period before, though that's still probably only around 1000-1500 cars per week. That is for the whole week, there's been one day bursts that have been probably quite a bit higher.

And finally, this may be the most meaningful way to look at the data:
Screen Shot 2018-04-01 at 8.26.49 PM.png
Basically Tesla has made 25% more cars in March than previous 8 months combined. Or, in March it made 60% more cars than Jan+Feb combined. You get the picture - there are positive ways to present this information and Tesla typically does that.

I just hope that overall production has approached 2500 cars a week, extrapolated from daily. My best bet is that there were 9000 +/- 1000 M3s produced in Q1. BTW, for the context, I lean towards being cautious most of the time, though Tesla made me look like an unbridled optimist number of time...
 
VW is going to kill Tesla, but first it needs to retrofit those cheat devices. Once they do, they’re going to kill Tesla!

VW Dieselgate Graveyards Grow to Over 300,000 Cars Across U.S.

VW spent $7 billion buying back cars from the public. $7B worth of customers are so fed up with VW they returned their car for a refund. That’s 300,000 customers who may never buy another VW again, let that sink in.

I might be just one data point, but I wouldn’t touch a VW with a stick, let alone drive one.

VW also promised its customers that the fix to dieselgate cars won’t affect fuel consumption, torch or power.. and the lies keep piling on.

 
  • Informative
Reactions: JoaoD and AZRI11
VW is going to kill Tesla, but first it needs to retrofit those cheat devices. Once they do, they’re going to kill Tesla!

VW Dieselgate Graveyards Grow to Over 300,000 Cars Across U.S.

VW spent $7 billion buying back cars from the public. $7B worth of customers are so fed up with VW they returned their car for a refund. That’s 300,000 customers who may never buy another VW again, let that sink in.

I might be just one data point, but I wouldn’t touch a VW with a stick, let alone drive one.
From this website, sale of VW products doesn't appear to be affected by Dieselgate...
vw.jpg
 
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  • Informative
Reactions: sundaymorning
Well, Friday March 30th turned into a great day, but not an epic day:
View attachment 291081
I can't see consistency in any time period that would allow Tesla to claim high production rate for extended period, a week or more. At least not at 2000+ cars per week, so we will be probably getting some extrapolated data again.

However, there are other ways to look at the issue at hand:
View attachment 291082
Production in the last four weeks has been WAYYYYY higher than any period before, though that's still probably only around 1000-1500 cars per week. That is for the whole week, there's been one day bursts that have been probably quite a bit higher.

And finally, this may be the most meaningful way to look at the data:
View attachment 291085
Basically Tesla has made 25% more cars in March than previous 8 months combined. Or, in March it made 60% more cars than Jan+Feb combined. You get the picture - there are positive ways to present this information and Tesla typically does that.

I just hope that overall production has approached 2500 cars a week, extrapolated from daily. My best bet is that there were 9000 +/- 1000 M3s produced in Q1. BTW, for the context, I lean towards being cautious most of the time, though Tesla made me look like an unbridled optimist number of time...
VIN assignment is a very useful metric but unfortunately not perfect. Tesla started back up with issuing VINS outside of West Coast this past week. That means the urgency of assigning VINS and immediately rolling them into deliveries - "instaVINS" - started to subside this past week. Also, with the Easter weekend don't be surprised to see some lagging entries come in next week. To give you a sense of how much lagging entries can change our final assessment, the March 4-10 number of 100 entries actually only registered as 83 when I looked on 3/11/18. Despite these 2 tailwinds, I am pleased to see that the most VINS ever assigned occurred during this past week.
 
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VW is going to kill Tesla, but first it needs to retrofit those cheat devices. Once they do, they’re going to kill Tesla!

VW Dieselgate Graveyards Grow to Over 300,000 Cars Across U.S.

VW spent $7 billion buying back cars from the public. $7B worth of customers are so fed up with VW they returned their car for a refund. That’s 300,000 customers who may never buy another VW again, let that sink in.

I might be just one data point, but I wouldn’t touch a VW with a stick, let alone drive one.
They tried to kill monkeys. The line has been drawn. I think I'll stop now. Happy Easter to all non-orthodox christians.
 
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Now I don’t analyze Elon’s mood much, but I don’t think he’ll be joking around if raising money was a problem. Let’s hope they release those numbers tomorrow, the anticipation is killing me.

Based on how I've seen Elon act in the past:

The joke doesn't mean Tesla necessarily had a great quarter. Probably fine, possibly great, but not necessarily.

However, it virtually guarantees that bankruptcy is not even remotely in the cards, which should make all those screaming bankruptcy feel pretty stupid right now. (They won't feel stupid. They'll still believe what they've convinced themselves. I'm just saying it SHOULD make them feel stupid).

There has never been any correlation between Elon's twitter mood and the health of Tesla.

I would still preach caution here. Until I see a sentence including 'Tsumani of hurt for shorts, part deus' coming from EM I will proceed with caution trying to dissect an EM tweet/mood and correlate it with an upcoming announcement that might have a positive impact on TSLA SP.
 
I would still preach caution here. Until I see a sentence including 'Tsumani of hurt for shorts, part deus' coming from EM I will proceed with caution trying to dissect an EM tweet/mood and correlate it with an upcoming announcement that might have a positive impact on TSLA SP.

I generally agree with that but I tend to think the delivery/production numbers/guidance will at a minimum be solid/respectable. Announcing terrible news a day or two after those tweets seems out of character.
 
I would still preach caution here. Until I see a sentence including 'Tsumani of hurt for shorts, part deus' coming from EM I will proceed with caution trying to dissect an EM tweet/mood and correlate it with an upcoming announcement that might have a positive impact on TSLA SP.
This is why I'm not laughing yet and all the shorts on twitter are. They don't care the joke was directed at them as they are rolling in fat gains while I can't even afford Teslaquilla to drown my sorrows.

This situation could very easily reverse as early as this week but I'm not counting my chickens until they hatch. Elon's joke could be because he sees checkmate of the shorts several years from now and his joke has nothing to do with what is going to happen short term.
 
I generally agree with that but I tend to think the delivery/production numbers/guidance will at a minimum be solid/respectable. Announcing terrible news a day or two after those tweets seems out of character.

I agree with this. I wouldn't say that the joke is a huge positive sign, but if 3 production rate wasn't ramping in a huge way right now, he'd look real stupid. And he doesn't look stupid often.
 
I generally agree with that but I tend to think the delivery/production numbers/guidance will at a minimum be solid/respectable. Announcing terrible news a day or two after those tweets seems out of character.

That is likely true. It's now essentially the "quiet" period before the quarterly production and deliveries report. This being April Fool's day, it may have provided Elon with a clever opportunity to imply confidence in the quickening of the Model 3 ramp, while jokingly appearing to speak quite negatively. He may have felt the need to jump in today to overcome the somewhat difficult news that came out since the market close on Thursday. He's no dummy.

BTW, fourth quarter 2017 production and deliveries numbers were revealed after the market close on January 3. January 1 was the last day of a three-day market holiday weekend, as was today, April 1. So I would not get too worried, if we have to wait until after the market close on Tuesday for the report.
 
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