TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

WOW the premarket has TSLA down almost 8 points !

Could people be thinking Elon was not joking?

Personally I think today is the final day of TSLA's spring sale.
Looking to pick up a few closeouts.

Not advice in any way, shape, or form.

Over reaction to the autopilot Revelation. Very good buying opportunity. The uninformed still think autopilot is full self driving like the Uber accident.

 

[HG Wells]

Tesla owners almost crashes on video trying to recreate fatal Autopilot accident.

Over at Electreck

 

[Richgoogol]

It’s down 13 now. Possibly retest $250 support level again when market opens.

 

[Todd Burch]

To make it clear: that video is from the Chicago area (signs refer to Indiana Toll Road), but likely similar to what happened.

Also, that’s exactly what I’d expect Autopilot to do in that scenario, but that’s for a different thread.

 

[sandpiper]

Tesla owners almost crashes on video trying to recreate fatal Autopilot accident.

Over at Electreck

So, no doubt there is an issue. Line markings are poor, but the vehicle should have seen the barrier and at least slowed.

With that being said, this isn't Tesla's fault. It's not like the divider wasn't clearly visible. Any driver who's looking at the road would have seen the divider. Tesla does need to implement some sort of internal cam that detects that the driver is looking at the road - much like GM.

 

[Reciprocity]

So, no doubt there is an issue. Line markings are poor, but the vehicle should have seen the barrier and at least slowed.

With that being said, this isn't Tesla's fault. It's not like the divider wasn't clearly visible. Any driver who's looking at the road would have seen the divider. Tesla does need to implement some sort of internal cam that detects that the driver is looking at the road - much like GM.

No AP shouldn't have seen the batterier. It's specifically designed to ignore it. It assumes the driver is alive, awake and paying attention. No different then any other cruise control.

Autopilot does 2 things.. Follows lane markings and doesn't run into the back of cars. It requires humans for every thing else. Period. Take your eyes of the road at your own risk. I Hope people are learning from these painful lessons.

 

[Sudre]

Back to Market Action in the market action thread.

I don’t post much but I am hoping to get the ball moving away from topics that should be in other threads.

It looks to me that a small amount of shares have been traded and the shorts are trying to get the morning dip off on a good run down with the weekend bad news. I have a feeling they are missing a major issue with their plan. They only have 1 million shares to work with maybe 2. When they run out of shares I am buying more. I think they may even drop TSLA below 250 because the last few weak long’s will panic.

I don’t think there will be enough shares to short to play wack-a-mole.

FTI. I always seem to guess this stuff wrong so you might want to try options this morning.

 

[Sudre]

Other Tech stocks are down too so Macro appears negative in Tech.

 

[sundaymorning]

New coverage on Tesla by Jefferies: raised to Hold, PT $250

Benzinga | Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla owners almost crashes on video trying to recreate fatal Autopilot accident.

Over at Electreck

consider

-the title of the video itself, "Tesla AutoPilot tries to kill occupants!!!"

-the jerky steering wheel movements at the end that moved the vehicle in the direction of the divider and the lack of visibility as to whether the car or the driver is causing them (seems that one cannot tell if a hand is on the wheel in the lower left hand corner of the video frame).

-the kinds of titles and content we see in abundance about Tesla in the media in breathless rollout mode these days

I'm not saying I know this video was staged, but I do have some doubts about the video

 

[Richgoogol]

If, by any chance, the production report is good, shouldn’t they release it now so it can alleviate some downward pressure on the SP? Or once the date and time is set, they cannot change it? Or it could be that it’s a mediocre report and it won’t help the SP, they rather leave it until AH.

 

[DurandalAI]

Payday was last Friday, so it’s time to buy a couple more shares. Either I will have enough to pay for my Model 3 come next February, or I will still be driving my 2012 Leaf. Either way, sticking to my guns.

 

[sundaymorning]

If, by any chance, the production report is good, shouldn’t they release it now so it can alleviate some downward pressure on the SP? Or once the date and time is set, they cannot change it? Or it could be that it’s a mediocre report and it won’t help the SP, they rather leave it until AH.

In the past the earliest Tesla has been able to release numbers is during the 2nd day of the Month, while the norm is more on the 3rd day of the month (after market). However, that is only with S&X accounted for, with M3 deliveries in the thousands, my assumption is that they’ll need the extra time to get it right.

 

[Rogue one]

In the past the earliest Tesla has been able to release numbers is during the 2nd day of the Month, while the norm is more on the 3rd day of the month (after market). However, that is only with S&X accounted for, with M3 deliveries in the thousands, my assumption is that they’ll need the extra time to get it right.

They don’t need to get it exactly right, they normally correct the number during the earings report, also I think the most important number is extrapolated model 3 run rate, they should have that number no problem.

 

[SteveG3]

In the past the earliest Tesla has been able to release numbers is during the 2nd day of the Month, while the norm is more on the 3rd day of the month (after market). However, that is only with S&X accounted for, with M3 deliveries in the thousands, my assumption is that they’ll need the extra time to get it right.

agree with what you wrote. that said, I think there is a fair chance we get something on Model 3 production before the actual production and delivery update on all three vehicles. over the years, there have been instances where Elon has tweeted out a data point or two amid intense scrutiny of the company in advance of a more formal and extensive release of information.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Here's a data point for Monday: After 7 days of ownership with my Model 3: zero problems of any sort, and 670 miles driven (equivalent of 35,000 miles/year). Yes, the car really is that fun to drive. By far the best vehicle I've ever owned.

Wrong thread but not just fun but so easy to drive. I think people forget the latter point. Not totally clear why to me. Perhaps handling, size or sight lines.

 

[sundaymorning]

They don’t need to get it exactly right, they normally correct the number during the earings report, also I think the most important number is extrapolated model 3 run rate, they should have that number no problem.

Although I can see where you’re going with this, I wouldn’t read too much into it. What are your guesstimates for M3?

 

[elasalle]

Is Accounting/Records handled via Paper or is there a System that persists every thing into a central database? I would assume the latter. if so, I don't think it would be that hard to get the numbers by now .. If they wanted to. Got to remember that yesterday was Easter Sunday, so they might have decided they didn't want anyone to have to work extra after a stressfull couple of weeks.

Edit. Better still, I think Senior Mgmt should have picture into Operations/Sales data in realtime.
Edit#2. Thats why EMs tweets must have happened knowing the outcome

 

[bdy0627]

Should be an interesting day. Macros are bad with the newly announced Chinese tariffs against American produce. Shorts will amplify any dip obviously but then what? No idea today. I think I'll watch the day play out and wait for the delivery numbers to adjust my position. Otherwise, it's just a complete guess at this point what the market does with TSLA now.

 

[sundaymorning]

Jefferies is normally bearish on Tesla, for them to upgrade the stock indicates to me something is cooking.

Tesla upgraded to hold at Jefferies analyst says company may take more drastic action on guidance and funding - MarketWatch

"We consider a small possibility of Tesla releasing supportive data this week but mainly high probability that management and the Board will take more drastic action on guidance and funding to restore credibility,"

With Elon’s April fools tweet coupled with this “high probability” comment I think something is definitly cooking to restore investor confidence. If M3 ramp looks reasonably good I think they will raise capital, initial talks have already likely been initiated with strong support from institutions. Again, this is all speculation.