Money can be used to pay off debts. When you pay off a bank loan, the money basically gets destroyed. The bank can create more money by issuing a new bank loan.
So it's either on the sidelines... or being used to pay down debts, i.e. destroyed.
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Money can be used to pay off debts. When you pay off a bank loan, the money basically gets destroyed. The bank can create more money by issuing a new bank loan.
So it's either on the sidelines... or being used to pay down debts, i.e. destroyed.
Would'nt blame you for keeping it close to the chest but are you considering any arbitrage strategy based on this?
Hypothetically speaking, what do think the stock for stock merger would look like, especially in regards to any potentially dilutive effects?
The US tax rules are why, perversely, it makes sense to buy and hold in after-tax accounts and engage in speculative frequent trading in retirement accounts. Kind of messed up but there it is.
I don't think he's even a trust-funder, and I wonder how he pays for his apartment.
Apparently anyone can call themselves a "hedge fund". The Washington Post article explains that Spiegel's "Stanphyl Capital" is only $8 million, including all the investors who aren't him. Fahmi Quadir, the other idiot short-seller who is quoted, manages "Safkhet Capital", and SEC filings show it only had about $5.7 million put into it.
Many of us here manage a lot more money than that. Maybe we should ask the Post to interview us instead.
Ideally, this would come out as rising wages and rising employment, perhaps with reduced working hours. (It's kind of complicated to explain why.) In that case, a boom would follow.
If that doesn't happen, what we will see is deflation in cash, but it'll lag the drop in stocks, and that's really bad (that's a nasty recession).
There will be a next recession.
You can't run an economy faster than the available work supplied by human labor -- this changes as tech develops, but slowly. That is the *traditional* source of inflation, identified by the pre-Keynesian economists.
You can't run an economy faster than the food supply. That is the *ancient and medieval* (pre-economics) source of recessions. Climate change means this one will probably actually be coming up on us soon. Ugh.
You can't run an economy faster than the available *money* used to make deals happen. (Unless you go full command-and-control military-hierarchy, which usually has its own limitations due to failure to do price discovery). This is the source of recessions identified by *Keynes*, and the one which caused most of the recessions in the 19th and first half of the 20th century.
Yes, we go back to being labor constrained, or food constrained, or water constrained, or money constrained.
You've missed the other two, more common, causes of recessions. We'll hit one of them eventually. When, not obvious.
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Apple doesn't have a lot of room for growth any more, does it? Very-long-run, Shiller P/E ratio centers around 10-15. So if we're reverting to the historical norm for P/E ratios, and Apple is essentially steady-state, 15 is actually what it should be worth.
shlokavica22
Member
250 Feb15'19:
- Delta 0.824
- Theta -0.201
330 Jan15'21
- Delta 0.678
- Theta -0.068
In other words- You add at most 20% more return, but the added risk is multiple of the other option. Was that your intention?
Alternatively, they're worried about their dependency on Tesla and want to insulate the rest of the company in case of Tesla failure.
Alternatively, they're worried about the rest of the company and want to insulate the Tesla-linked operations from failure elsewhere.
Tesla can pay out cash even if the bondholders want to convert, they just have to pay out more. Tesla is compensated for the extra amount by the "hedges" they opened, so they'll likely pay them in cash unless the price is over $512 (where the hedges end).
I checked the Chinese. Spak says they *will* raise the money locally, and the rates *could* be between 3-5%.
Hmm, I am looking back at my records; I appear to have sold my GE just before the dot com peak. I was suspicious of Jack Welch's "earnings massaging".
I wonder what the effect will be long term when we have masses of people in the US who are unemployable.?
Coal miners essentially are there now but a a pretty small segment. Sure there is the outlier success story of the person who is retrained...but really most are not.
If we get to semi-autonomous driving there goes truck driving ( A huge part of which are non college degree white males) I'm thinking platoon type driving with the "last mile" being perhaps human.
I have no doubt my job (Pilot) is a goner at some point in the not to distant future.
Other fields are doomed as well such as Radiologist current computer vision and analysis is good enough to be at least as good as a Dr. Most low level support staff is going away as machine language improves. There are many fields that have many people working in them that are in danger or being replaced with non human ....for lack of a better word ..workers.
It seems we are on the cusp of a pretty scary revolution. Think about the alien dreadnought ...yeah it is cool and will help our stock portfolio's but man that is a lot less people working.
I think we will have to implement some sort of UBI in the future. But the transition from a almost full employment like today to a almost full non-employment is going to be rocky.
And with those thoughts...have a happy weekend all!
I'm no expert.
But if I remember correctly, it depends on whether you're looking at out-of-the-money or in-the-money calls (and of course whether you're short or long calls) and whether you're rolling them up or down or just out. Options are *complicated*.
If you're long calls and rolling out, you want to minimize the losses from the rolling, which means you want the difference in the extrinsic value due to the expiration date difference to be low. This is called "volatility skew" if I remember correctly (and I might not, I'm no expert). Volatility skew, if I remember correctly (and I may not) *tends* to be highest closest to the money, which would mean you want to roll when the market price further from the strike price. But that's not always the case. You also want to roll during relatively low implied volatility (but what's low?)
A real options expert could tell you more, but this is really complicated stuff.
Return is compounded. If you feel a stock is going to be moving relatively quickly, a 20% greater quarterly return turns into a 207% greater annual return. Meanwhile, I see the risk of being under $250 at expiry as around 6,5% and the risk of being a net loss at 31%, with an expected return of 25% at expiration.
Based of course on my personal assessment of stock value probabilities, which of course anyone can contest with their own expectations.
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You do know TSLA moves *totally uncorrelated* with the broader markets, right? Has for *years*. R^2 is barely above 0. It's the fabled "uncorrelated asset". (Though I think a big bear market will pull it down.)
Don’t trust the Chinese tech media too much, most of their information were translated from English and sometimes they mis-understood English. I know it’s hard to believe but sometimes it happens(actually a lot, unintentionally or intentionally). Fact checking is not popular there so they usually get away with it.
传特斯拉（TSLA.US）或在上海筹约13亿美元推进建厂 利率3-5%
The article said Tesla “大约会” take 1.3b local loan, which is somewhat unnatural Chinese speaking, word-by-word it means “maybe will”, but I would suspect it was translated from “about to”, although I can’t be sure unless I see the English source they’re using.
So, not certain what they really mean.
These people aren't the real source of the huge short interest. They just don't have enough money. $30,000 in puts? Spiegel at his maximum seems to have had about $1.2 million short TSLA (doesn't any more!) This is insignificant. Andrew Left was actually a sizeable short-seller before he switched sides, as is Jim Chanos. I wonder who the others are?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I've been thinking along similar lines myself, seems like a rational progression.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'll hate him a little extra to take up the slack.
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