Or, he's just enabling Apple and others to be able to buy back more stock at lower prices? then, pull a "we've just decided to allow exemptions for all the major purchases of Iranian oil" type of statement. Don't think it doesn't happen.
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Carl Raymond
Active Member
Even if they do make *big* changes, there's still all the minutia (beyond battery, motors, skateboard, wheels, which are biggies).
Ventilation system, heating, cooling, brake hydraulics, accelerator pedal, brake pedal, centre console, screws/bolts/fasteners, rear view mirror, courtesy light, customer support system, supercharger support system, delivery logistics, supplier logistics. I've only scratched the surface. Tesla would have gone through the entire parts catalog to see what can be used again. If it's not over 60% I'll eat my hat.
sweter
Member
Yea, that's an older article. I remember he later retracted this statement: Tesla Model Y is coming to market sooner using Model 3 architecture, says Elon Musk
"the top management team talk him down from the idea or “walked him back from the cliff of insanity” as he said."
I hope that is still the case. Also it seems that back then, more than a year ago, everything was up in the air, but last CC a month ago he said he signed off on production prototype. Who knows what it ended up being? Hopefully we'll find out in March.
It's... OK for transportation. No port, squirrely low-speed railroads, weird highway routings, but enough highways and a decent location.
Lordstown is flat out terrible for recruiting, however. I ask you: try to get smart eager young people to move to:
(1) Detroit
(2) Lordstown, a rural area west of Youngtown
(3) The Greater Toronto Area.
I rest my case.
They've gone around several times on the Model Y. From the sound of it, it's going to be a sort of "platform and a half" change (and I expect that most of the changes they make will eventually get back-migrated to the Model 3, so they'll effectively end up on the same platform)
One question is, *who's lending to the Saudis*? Because the Saudis are going to default, no question about it. Who will be left holding the back? (Russia and Iran both have tax bases, so their debt is probably serviceable. And I believe all of it is denominated in their own currencies, so they can inflate it. Plus, Russia's isolated its oil company debt from its national debt. Saudi Arabia has no tax base, so they can't service their debt, and they have dollar-denoinated debt.)
Ulmo
Active Member
Let's hope. Some of them may be fence-sitting the whole immigration thing, which would be just the right amount of cognitive dissonance possible for some execs to think the cost differences are a result of a perceived reduction in the affluence of their customers in excess of the truth or some other rediculously premature excuse(s). I'm not saying those source effects don't have an impact, but it could be just enough of an intentional blind spot (an "unknown" in the parlance of those who lie to themselves) that they could continue to sweep more under the rug from themselves for longer. I'm just saying, don't be surprised if their own numbers tell them the truth and they respond to the numbers in the marketplace, yet they still don't see it and fully respond. I saw this happen in every Internet-affected industry, for instance. Look at Sears Catalog, my favorite example: they could have put their EXISTING catalog online with their existing department intact with only 1 new Internet computer programmer employee and become the first Amazon overnight, yet that very year they instead decided to close that department. INSANE. Yet they did it. They looked at their own numbers depicting the truth, and had exactly the opposite reaction they should have had.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Note that if we also correct by U.S. population growth of +0.7% per year then 0.7% of 16.4 million is another ~115k units missing growth on the ICE side.
With that correction peak ICE was in 2015 and there's been a decline of -7.5% relative to the population growth adjusted 2015 peak figure (17,702k).
There's a second factor as well: the percentage of new car purchases financed via consumer debt has increased faster than free disposable income, i.e. a significant percentage of new car sales is probably artificial, it's vendor-financed by ICE OEMs via captive financing such as GM Financial, Ford Motor Credit or Toyota Motor Credit.
It will be, after all, a manufacturing site with >90% hard working line workers, which have unlimited cheaper supply in rusty belt, that translates to more stable/maximum output(full shift) and higher gross margin. The young smart creative engineers can work at Fremont, which would be operating as a lab. All the successful practice created there would directly copy to all other GFs.
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IHOTQ (I have only two questions): What do PM and FI stand for?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
For a given expiration - looks like both Vega and (abs) Theta are highest at ATM and fall as the strike price moves away from SP.
With IV - the highest is just before earnings. So, if you think the earnings won't be good, obviously best to sell call before earnings and buy after the earnings when IV falls (and so will SP if the earnings are no good). If we anticipate good earnings with SP moving up, best to buy the call before IV goes up (Looks like 1 or 2 weeks before earnings).
It's not actually like that.
You need moderately smart and eager young people if you want *good* line workers, rather than *terrible* line workers.
I don't want to regale you with tales I've heard of trying to set up factories in Elmira, NY, and discovering that you can't recruit anyone who has a decent work ethic and a high-school-level of competence. In the most benighted parts of the Rust Belt, the smart young people *leave*. Even the ones who are not that smart leave. You're left with the drunkards and the dropouts.
Now, in a more major Rust Belt city like Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo, Cleveland, Toledo, Pittsburgh, Fort Wayne or even Detroit, it's not *that* bad. The brain drain isn't total. You can get local kids to stay. Rust Belt university and college towns are usually fine too. But when you're scraping the bottom of the barrel with places like Elmira, Youngstown, or Warren, it really is that bad.
I mean, Tesla could make the difference, it could attract people -- but a lot of the people you're trying to attract won't want to move to Warren or Youngstown (though Youngstown isn't that bad culturally).
Ulmo
Active Member
Not only that, but they could (I don't know if they do) prototype some updates to Model 3 parts that expand those parts' capability to work in both Model 3 & Model Y platforms and get them slowly ramped up to full speed before Model Y is even being made, in cases where a part is initially good for Model 3 but not yet good enough for Model Y, for whatever reason. They could even prototype and ramp up superior parts not necessary for but compatible with Model 3 that are needed for Model Y, and have a much more graceful ramp up of those parts when Model Y comes out. (For both ideas, hand-made graph below, black old Model 3 part, green new Model 3 & Y compatible part; in reality, the black one could/should/would decline slower for a lot of good reasons).
(That same idea could be extended across all their products.)
This is off the top of my head because it is obvious to me; what they are supposed to teach in schools must be way more experienced than this. The more and more I think about this, the more I realize everyone must do this already; it's that obvious.
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mltv
Member
Almost a part time job keeping up with this thread.... finally caught up!
Sorry for the tardy reply. I asked the plant manager directly what their steady build rate is right now and he replied 692 per day, or about 4850 per week.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Piecing together various reports, it seems that GF1/Sparks worked through Thanksgiving whereas Fremont was closed for the holiday.
Inference: Tesla is still battery constrained.
CH3ERS!
Inference: Tesla is still battery constrained.
CH3ERS!
If correct, it does allow a build up of battery packs so that they can test that all systems are 'Go' this week to hit 7k builds at Fremont.
These are the exact type of posts I was talking about that were being made 3 years ago. These are assumption posts. People assume the 3 ramp up would go smoothly because of various factors that were "known at the time". Elon has said they dropped the ball on part of the ramp up.
I have my 3, I back the company, but I'm really tired of these projections on here. I've read them since 2012.
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