TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

These are the exact type of posts I was talking about that were being made 3 years ago. These are assumption posts. People assume the 3 ramp up would go smoothly because of various factors that were "known at the time". Elon has said they dropped the ball on part of the ramp up.

I have my 3, I back the company, but I'm really tired of these projections on here. I've read them since 2012.

The big thing for the 3, I think, was being blindsided by the extreme demand. They ended up with ~5x what they were sure was the maximum possible number of preorders. As I remember, their ramp exceeded their original projection(but failed, miserably, to hit the updated one they shot for to deal with the preorder glut). Hopefully, with the Y, that either doesn’t happen again, or they ignore any such surprises and keep on with whatever they plan initially in terms of production.

Trying to short-cut such an enormous production ramp clearly doesn’t work.

 

[hacer]

Also, wonder if Tesla could pick up any of these closed factories for the Model Y line?

They should wait awhile to let the price plummet, and demand concessions from Michigan on sales/service in the state.

 

[EVNow]

Anyone thinking about the Canadian plant that Tesla could pickup - lookout for what Canadian government & union decide to do. Unions are gearing to fight. There are calls to nationalize GM in Canada.

Anger, sadness and uncertainty for GM workers as Oshawa plant closure announced | The Star

It’s time for a truly Canadian automaker | The Star

 

[SpaceCash]

Anyone thinking about the Canadian plant that Tesla could pickup - lookout for what Canadian government & union decide to do. Unions are gearing to fight. There are calls to nationalize GM in Canada.

Anger, sadness and uncertainty for GM workers as Oshawa plant closure announced | The Star

It’s time for a truly Canadian automaker | The Star

Give GM to the Canadians. Most ironic outcome = winner!

 

[AZRI11]

He's inciting Tim Cook and many other American tycoons to unite and destroy him politically.

I agree. Not just rich they also have mighty sway politically. When Trump pardons Manafort and then puts a tax on apple, that will hopefully be the straw that breaks the elephants back. Spineless speaker Ryan never had one to break.

 

[Artful Dodger]

People die climbing Everest all the time. They like doing it for the challenge.

Does that sound like an escape hatch for rich people?

 

[Words of HABIT]

IHOTQ (I have only two questions): What do PM and FI stand for?

Project Management
Financial Institution

Edit: ICYWW

 

[Carl Raymond]

These are the exact type of posts I was talking about that were being made 3 years ago. These are assumption posts. People assume the 3 ramp up would go smoothly because of various factors that were "known at the time". Elon has said they dropped the ball on part of the ramp up.

I have my 3, I back the company, but I'm really tired of these projections on here. I've read them since 2012.

From S/X to 3, a smaller car with new motors, new cells, new pack, new pack architecture, new dash design, is not remotely similar to the exercise of going from 3 to Y, with all the above in common. History can only guide if there is some parallel.

 

[scaesare]

What is "total grounded torque" and why does it seem out-of-whack to the other figures?

Almost certainly the torque transmitted to the ground via the wheels after gear reduction.

Elon similarly quoted a similar value for the v2.0 Roadster...

 

[EVNow]

From S/X to 3, a smaller car with new motors, new cells, new pack, new pack architecture, new dash design, is not remotely similar to the exercise of going from 3 to Y, with all the above in common. History can only guide if there is some parallel.

I don't know how similar 3 will be to Y.

But, in general what is the use of platforms if the similarity is not much. How do you achieve significant economies if they don't share parts ?

Tesla should stop making changes for the sake of making changes - or for pure cool factor. They do continuous improvements - which is great. They should keep the cool factor to S/X/Roadster - and just make reliable, good 3/Y/Pickup/Semi. Cool can be a "trickle down".

Cool and unusual is needed when you are still making 50k cars a year to garner attention. Not anymore.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They’re celebrating for the fact that they were almost right. That they were almost correct in their assumptions, they’re celebrating for feeling slightly less ashamed, slightly more face and that absolutely matters when your ego was injured in a wrong way bet; especially if they shorted the farm.

Fun Fact: The Flat Earth Society has members all around the globe.

 

[MikeC]

Bear attack incoming? What a surprise, a FUD headline from Reuters.

Telsa China sales drop sharply in October: auto industry body — Reuters

 

[Carl Raymond]

I don't know how similar 3 will be to Y.

But, in general what is the use of platforms if the similarity is not much. How do you achieve significant economies if they don't share parts ?

Tesla should stop making changes for the sake of making changes - or for pure cool factor. They do continuous improvements - which is great. They should keep the cool factor to S/X/Roadster - and just make reliable, good 3/Y/Pickup/Semi. Cool can be a "trickle down".

Cool and unusual is needed when you are still making 50k cars a year to garner attention. Not anymore.

Here's a fun exercise for anybody doubting the overlap. Spend some time going through the actual parts catalog:
https://epc.teslamotors.com/#/login (click on [General Public] for access).

I initially said up to 90% of parts in common. Then revised that down to 'more than 60%' when that met with strong scepticism. Having spent some time going through the actual catalog, I'm back to claiming nearly 90%. There's just such a strong tendency to focus on the visual. It's easy to forget that most parts are hidden - the many parts related to function, not form.

 

[SpaceCash]

Bear attack incoming? What a surprise, a FUD headline from Reuters.

Telsa China sales drop sharply in October: auto industry body — Reuters

Ahhh tsk tsk tsk. Goshdarn TELSA at it again...

 

[sundaymorning]

Anger, sadness and uncertainty for GM workers as Oshawa plant closure announced | The Star

It’s time for a truly Canadian automaker | The Star

This is likely how Bob Lutz feels right now that the Volt has been discontinued. He’s been harping about the demise of Tesla for so long that karma decided to bite him in the butt.

 

[EVNow]

This is likely how Bob Lutz feels right now that the Volt has been discontinued. He’s been harping about the demise of Tesla for so long that karma decided to bite him in the butt.

Yes, I was just going to ask. Did CNBC etc call and talk to Lutz about GM - rather than about Tesla, he knows nothing about ?

Canada must be feeling really bad now - they gave a lot of money to GM to stop them going bankrupt. In turn GM closes the plant after 10 years. They should consider nationalizing the plant - and making only EVs there.

Updated: “We have to use every trick, every tool of government to make sure GM understands they’re not going to take advantage of this country,” said Jerry Dias, the national president of Unifor, which represents workers at the plant:

 

[TradingInvest]

Bear attack incoming? What a surprise, a FUD headline from Reuters.

Telsa China sales drop sharply in October: auto industry body — Reuters

China suddenly added a 25% tariff on top of a 15% tariff. Of course that would immediately depress the demand. People at least want to wait a while to see what will happen next. I think this situation is likely to improve dramatically soon. 1. Potential trade deal; 2. China plans to reduce import tariff on certain products anyway; 3. Tesla can build tents and assemble cars in China.

 

[SpaceCash]

Yes, I was just going to ask. Did CNBC etc call and talk to Lutz about GM - rather than about Tesla, he knows nothing about ?

Canada must be feeling really bad now - they gave a lot of money to GM to stop them going bankrupt. In turn GM closes the plant after 10 years. They should consider nationalizing the plant - and making only EVs there.

Great post. Very illustrative of the usual avoidance of the elephants in the room, and of the classic anti-Tesla narrative that Lutz was not questioned about GM. And honestly, big picture wise it's good that Canada got screwed by GM here. Makes it a real international incident that can't be glossed over. All the gears are now in place for stupid money to finally make its way to TSLA and the renewable energy revolution

 

[mrdoubleb]

Bear attack incoming? What a surprise, a FUD headline from Reuters.

Telsa China sales drop sharply in October: auto industry body — Reuters

The news may very well be true and kind of expected. The real question is why Reuters only reports about Tesla's sales drop? Sure, some manufacturers have local factories as well, but not all and not for all cars. The tariff hit them too, so where is the context on how much everyone else lost?

 

[SpaceCash]

The news may very well be true and kind of expected. The real question is why Reuters only reports about Tesla's sales drop? Sure, some manufacturers have local factories as well, but not all and not for all cars. The tariff hit them too, so where is the context on how much everyone else lost?

Because f*** Tesla, that's why