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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Is it just the E-Trade chart or was there really no volume for an hour and a half? Weird scenes inside the gold mine...

Excel spreadsheet available from NASDAQ here. What times are you interested in? I'll add'em up for you.

So NASDAQ is missing all the 'per-minute' data from 09:30 until 10:13 when they posted 743K shares traded (obviously a 'catch-up' entry).

Funny, Google's interactive chart appeared to update normally throughout the day, though it is SP-only data (no volume info).

Google probably has a better connection to the NASDAQ data center in NJ than the 3rd Party that NASDAQ uses for charting.

Charts are actually hosted by edgar-online.com then displayed in a frame on the NASDAQ website.

Cheers!
 
So NASDAQ is missing all the 'per-minute' data from 09:30 until 10:13 when they posted 743K shares traded (obviously a 'catch-up' entry).

Funny, Google's interactive chart appeared to update normally throughout the day, though it is SP-only data (no volume info).

Google probably has a better connection to the NASDAQ data center in NJ than the 3rd Party that NASDAQ uses for charting.

Charts are actually hosted by edgar-online.com then displayed in a frame on the NASDAQ website.

Cheers!
Thanks you may have identified what happened, since eTrade has now filled itself in as well. Now if you could just make the number go up, all will be well with the universe... until tomorrow that is.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Artful Dodger
BMW does still not get it:
Chief R&D Fröhlich:

Just quotes:
  • we see a competition who can spit the cherry core furthest. Forget that range competition
  • Range does not matter as EV user are more for the urban and suburban areas
  • In average only 1.1 person drive per EV. Thats energetic nonsense
  • Range is not a criteria of quality
  • does not believe that costs for EVs will go down significantly
  • cell producers already today want to get higher prices
  • BMW will get cells from CATL in 2021 worth €1.5 bn
  • Diesel Hybrids can solve the Diesel ban in German cities
They did not change 1 cent from where they have been years ago. The design makes the cars very futuristic and its still not a "normal design car" as we see it from others. BMW has no strategy to manage the shortage of lithium and although the going to be a major customer from CATL that builds an Europe plant they are dependent on how CVATL dictated the price. The will be behind larger companies in the food chain.

BMW does not understand the consumer any more. It was one of the biggest mistakes to believe years ago that consumers want an EV for an urban area. If people go to their car they want the freedom to drive anywhere as it was with their gas car.

I cannot believe that BMW even considered to continue with business as usual while Tesla provide every distance if long or short that a consumer wants.

It sounds like capitulation from BMW. They do not seriously believe they can compete on price and range and battery supply.

BMW is in trouble.

BMW: Maximal große Elektroauto-Akkus "energetisch unsinnig" - ecomento.de


Fröhlich should be fired after that interview.
 
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BMW does still not get it:
Chief R&D Fröhlich:

Just quotes:
  • we see a competition who can spit the cherry core furthest. Forget that range competition
  • Range does not matter as EV user are more for the urban and suburban areas
  • In average only 1.1 person drive per EV. Thats energetic nonsense
  • Range is not a criteria of quality
  • does not believe that costs for EVs will go down significantly
  • cell producers already today want to get higher prices
  • BMW will get cells from CATL in 2021 worth €1.5 bn
  • Diesel Hybrids can solve the Diesel ban in German cities
They did not change 1 cent from where they have been years ago. The design makes the cars very futuristic and its still not a "normal design car" as we see it from others. BMW has no strategy to manage the shortage of lithium and although the going to be a major customer from CATL that builds an Europe plant they are dependent on how CVATL dictated the price. The will be behind larger companies in the food chain.

BMW does not understand the consumer any more. It was one of the biggest mistakes to believe years ago that consumers want an EV for an urban area. If people go to their car they want the freedom to drive anywhere as it was with their gas car.

I cannot believe that BMW even considered to continue with business as usual while Tesla provide every distance if long or short that a consumer wants.

It sounds like capitulation from BMW. They do not seriously believe they can compete on price and range and battery supply.

BMW is in trouble.

BMW: Maximal große Elektroauto-Akkus "energetisch unsinnig" - ecomento.de


Fröhlich should be fired after that interview.

It is interesting correlation between CATL and BMW. Obvious the are having fights regarding cell price. Smart move is to decrease prices as much you can to gain volumes today in a rising market. They are loosing time and capacity because of that. BMW didn't believe in batteries so he did nothing important about that and now they depend on CATL. They lost control on important part of the costs. On the other side CATL will not succeed if they will pressure with high prices because his customer is losing the ground. Very short therm view.

Tesla/Panasonic story shows that prices can and will go down :)
 
Interesting article about Netflix. I can see parallels to TSLA:

The long bet on Netflix paid off with eye-popping returns for investors who braved the volatility

  • "Compounded growth rate of 46% from 2007 onward"
  • "Lost 75% of it's value after Quikster debacle"
  • "If you bought $1000 of Netflix stock after the Qwikster debacle, it would be worth about $28,000 today"
and finally:
  • "What is today's long bet?"
Let's see: 28 * $250 (approximate TSLA low of a little over a month ago): = $7000. Not far off from the ultra-bull predictions.

I am guessing stock price stable for next two weeks, then gradual uptick with leaking/tweeting of end-of-year weekly production numbers?
 
It is interesting correlation between CATL and BMW. Obvious the are having fights regarding cell price. Smart move is to decrease prices as much you can to gain volumes today in a rising market. They are loosing time and capacity because of that. BMW didn't believe in batteries so he did nothing important about that and now they depend on CATL. They lost control on important part of the costs. On the other side CATL will not succeed if they will pressure with high prices because his customer is losing the ground. Very short therm view.

Tesla/Panasonic story shows that prices can and will go down :)

Battery costs will only go down if you take the risk to invest into really large GFs which not all Battery suppliers are doing today.

Also there is a large difference between pouch cells and what Tesla/Panasonic are doing. You have to be able to take the "risk" and invest billions up front to bring battery costs down years after. You fix yourself on a cell type and if the market does shift to e.g. solid state (not likely) you have a problem.

CATL has all options to play the customers and they will of course do that. If you are a producer of a product that is high in demand you will optimize your revenue and profit. IOW who is willing to make the best contracts will win. BMW with just above 2m cars annually is a small customer versus VW.

While CATL will optimize their profits and price per unit BMW will get the lowest price adjustment needed to keep them as a customer. That price will be higher than what other customers will commit to with high volume long term contracts. So even if costs per Kwh goes down only the lowest possible part will be given to BMW. In that sense they will be in a disadvantage and that even if they build better EVs than like for instance VW or Daimer.

BMW cannot win a cut through price competition for batteries with already loosing market share in revenue and reduced margins.

Mid market auto companies with a few hundred to a million or two cars per year produced are in a strong disadvantage because of battery production but also CapEx. Player like BMW are vulnerable and are under threat not to survive.
 
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Interesting article about Netflix. I can see parallels to TSLA:

The long bet on Netflix paid off with eye-popping returns for investors who braved the volatility

  • "Compounded growth rate of 46% from 2007 onward"
  • "Lost 75% of it's value after Quikster debacle"
  • "If you bought $1000 of Netflix stock after the Qwikster debacle, it would be worth about $28,000 today"
and finally:
  • "What is today's long bet?"
Let's see: 28 * $250 (approximate TSLA low of a little over a month ago): = $7000. Not far off from the ultra-bull predictions.

I am guessing stock price stable for next two weeks, then gradual uptick with leaking/tweeting of end-of-year weekly production numbers?

Production numbers are rarely the big bullish mover that people here consistently imagine them to be.
 
Battery costs will only go down if you take the risk to invest into really large GFs which not all Battery suppliers are doing today.

Also there is a large difference between pouch cells and what Tesla/Panasonic are doing. You have to be able to take the "risk" and invest billions up front to bring battery costs down years after. You fix yourself on a cell type and if the market does shift to e.g. solid state (not likely) you have a problem.

CATL has all options to play the customers and they will of course do that. If you are a producer of a product that is high in demand you will optimize your revenue and profit. IOW who is willing to make the best contracts will win. BMW with just above 2m cars annually is a small customer versus VW.

While CATL will optimize their profits and price per unit BMW will get the lowest price adjustment needed to keep them as a customer. That price will be higher than what other customers will commit to with high volume long term contracts. So even if costs per Kwh goes down only the lowest possible part will be given to BMW. In that sense they will be in a disadvantage and that even if they build better EVs than like for instance VW or Daimer.

BMW cannot win a cut through price competition for batteries with already loosing market share in revenue and reduced margins.

Mid market auto companies with a few hundred to a million or two cars per year produced are in a strong disadvantage because of battery production but also CapEx. Player like BMW are vulnerable and are under treat not to survive.

Note that despite the bearish tone he sounded, a $1,5B battery order for a company talking up small-pack EVs still equates to around 300k EVs/year. Or less if you consider hybrids to be consuming part of that supply.

Regardless, that's a pittiance compared to where Tesla will be then, but it's still far beyond today's compliance EVs.

His attitude is nonetheless such a throwback that it's funny. The good 'ol "We've given you hippies your hair shirt - are you happy now?!?" attitude that almost all major automakers took toward EVs in the beginning, and some (clearly) are still taking.
 

James Stephenson‏ @ICannot_Enough

James Stephenson Retweeted StatsTesla

$TSLA daily trading volume has dropped substantially over the past week, from about 10M daily to about 3M. Why does that matter? Well, it ought to matter to anyone short Tesla (see comment below about Days to Cover):

James Stephenson added,

DtG4Y_2XgAIzvb7.jpg

12:55 PM - 29 Nov 2018

    1. 11h11 hours ago
      At 30M shares short and 3M shares average daily volume, it would take *10 trading days* to cover all shares short. That’s a lot longer sustained rally with upward price movement following positive Tesla news than if volume were at 10M daily (3 days to cover).

      DtMtw60U8AEcuNz.jpg

      2 replies2 retweets15 likes

    2. 11h11 hours ago
      If you didn’t understand any of the above, the key takeaway here is that if lower daily trading volumes are here to stay, it just got even more dangerous than it already was to short Tesla.
    3. James Stephenson on Twitter
 
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Note that despite the bearish tone he sounded, a $1,5B battery order for a company talking up small-pack EVs still equates to around 300k EVs/year. Or less if you consider hybrids to be consuming part of that supply.

Regardless, that's a pittiance compared to where Tesla will be then, but it's still far beyond today's compliance EVs.

His attitude is nonetheless such a throwback that it's funny. The good 'ol "We've given you hippies your hair shirt - are you happy now?!?" attitude that almost all major automakers took toward EVs in the beginning, and some (clearly) are still taking.

BMWs strategy is strongly based on hybrids. BMW did large investments into Diesel in the last decade and now intends to push Diesel Hybrids on the road as "the best of the two worlds". Thats their narrative. They want an ROI on their investment. A large part as you indicated of the supply will go therefore into Hybrids.

Also they talk about 2021 to start if all goes well. I am not convinced that if other customers pay more at that point in time and make better contracts that BMW will get the full bid.

Although I hope that BMW will be a larger player in EVs also as we have to give them credit for starting to build EVs when no other manufacturer did this really it still needs to be seen if they make it.

The statement from Fröhlich make me wonder...
 
The Shanghai TESLA Super Factory held a job fair in the Shanghai Lingang Industrial Zone. The on-site candidates had a long queue. The recruitment that was originally scheduled to end at 3:30 was delayed due to the large number of candidates. Many candidates said that they had made a special trip for Tesla.

Source, peopleweb? Thanks!
 
BMW does still not get it:
Chief R&D Fröhlich:

Just quotes:
  • we see a competition who can spit the cherry core furthest. Forget that range competition
  • Range does not matter as EV user are more for the urban and suburban areas
  • In average only 1.1 person drive per EV. Thats energetic nonsense
  • Range is not a criteria of quality
  • does not believe that costs for EVs will go down significantly
  • cell producers already today want to get higher prices
  • BMW will get cells from CATL in 2021 worth €1.5 bn
  • Diesel Hybrids can solve the Diesel ban in German cities

OMG, he really seems to believe all that bull*sugar* ...

I agree that BMW is truly in trouble. I had a look at BMW's next "Tesla killer" project, to see what effect this would have on $TSLA and market action, this is a CleanTechnica article about BMW's of their 'next' EV yesterday:

First and foremost, BMW is very much capable of designing very well looking, conservatively designed yet distinctive cars that many, including me, find beautiful:
2687d15a673842c7a20bfffdbe030e36.jpg


The BMW "iNext" is not such a car:

2018.11-BMW-iNext-World-Premiere-LA-Auto-Show-Presentation.jpg


Let's list all the obvious external deficiencies:
  • Suicide doors. Were it ever released it would be meme fodder and a constant source of embarrassing questions to owners: "Is this really safe? What if the kids open the door while the car is moving? What if it starts rolling after you left the car and the doors trap you in both directions? Aren't you scared?". They must be aware of it that this is a non-starter, so why even try?? If you want unified access to a larger interior, use ... something like falcon wing doors that move out of the way, or invent something even better if you think such a solution exists.
  • The fake grille at the nose, in a form that mimics a giant, smashed blue butterfly the car caught on the highway at 100 mph and smeared on its grille in one giant, sad mess. Firstly, it's in such a contrast with the smooth rest of a car that even drawing this on paper should have caused the designer to be fired. There not being anyone in the decision chain who said "hell no!" and that this was allowed to make it into the concept car is an epic fail of taste, IMHO.
  • An incompatible color palette with cold and warm colors, both accented: i.e. the blue glowing lines are a total miss IMHO. The organizers of the show apparently noticed this fail and added that blue-ish picture in the background, but it's only a workaround for this environment.
  • The embarrassingly futuristic look. Judging from their ICE offerings BMW understands it very well that most buyers of luxury cars do not want to gain attention - they want to drive an elegant, high quality car. The ones who want attention will buy a racing car or a supercar. I'm sure there are customers who'd love this, but I submit that the majority of mainstream customers won't.
Tesla understands this concept of designing conservatively yet giving futuristic functionality very well, so does BMW, Mercedes and Audi for their ICE offerings. Yet this concept car shows none of that understanding - it's almost as if they still didn't want their EV offerings to compete with their ICE offerings head-on. They are still struggling to create a 'new EV style', in the hope of fragmenting demand and protecting their existing customer base.

It won't work: the Model 3 is eating 3-series sales in the U.S. alive... The effect of the Model 3 on 3-series sales in Germany will I think be a wake-up call to BMW.

In fact IMO the Model 3 is large enough to drain demand from the BMW 5-series as well: it's as wide and as tall as a 5-series sedan, but a bit shorter - yet has comparable interior volume (and a frunk), which many Europeans would find an improvement over the 5-series because shorter cars are easier to park.

It doesn't get better if we look at the iNext interior:

2018.11-BMW-iNext-World-Premiere-LA-Auto-Show-Interior.jpg


  • I tentatively call this the "1960s sci-fi movies said hello!" look. There's absolutely nothing appealing (to me) about this look: it's a sterile hospital interior that doesn't give any safe place to sit.
  • Hardwood fail: the wasteful hardwood cover's striping is off and elongates a space that should be made visually wider. Also, hardwood cover doesn't exactly spell "eco friendly", if they wanted to create any green cred ... Also, hardwood tends to be pretty slippery when your shoes are even just a tiny bit wet, so people would put mats over this anyway - so why even bother?
  • The right side screen is rather distracting to the driver, and passengers would want to watch movies on it. Why create such a temptation?
  • All the geometric ratios are off - not a single golden ratio in sight. 3 different rectangles in an incoherent jumble. The rightmost screen also imbalances the visual impression, it's a clear answer to the "which is the largest, most expensive LCD screen you can fit in here??" question which should never have been asked. It's similar to a design West Coast Customs throws together in a week, for a rich customer with particularly bad taste.
  • The chrome steering wheel is a usability fail: the always moving glittery motion of reflections from the chrome distracts the driver all the time. Steering wheel and key portions of the front of a car should be matte black - with a few spots of white for horizontal surfaces if the interior is white.
I could go on and on... I realize that this is a "concept car", mostly for show, but still it's sending all the wrong signals.

TL;DR: the BMW iNext is not a Tesla killer, it's a BMW killer.
 
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