TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

BTW, the "new" NAFTA will face difficulty getting approval of the Congress. That might affect the market sometime next year.

View attachment 356983

Now Trump is saying he is going to nullify NAFTA - so congress will have no choice but to vote for his NAFTA 2.0 (or there won't be an agreement). Not sure he can even do that unilaterally.

BREAKING: Trump says he'll be 'formally terminating NAFTA,' says Congress will have choice between replacement or nothing

 

[KarenRei]

Now Trump is saying he is going to nullify NAFTA - so congress will have no choice but to vote for his NAFTA 2.0 (or there won't be an agreement). Not sure he can even do that unilaterally.

A chief executive who thinks that they have the power to unilaterally revoke signed laws? Hmm, I think there's a term for this somewhere...

 

[KarenRei]

For those who want us to stop talking about "offtopic" stuff and instead stay focused on "market action" - what "market action" do you expect to be happening on a Sunday, exactly? News on the tariff war is quite literally the closest thing to market action news we could possibly be discussing.

I agree that this thread should be moderated, and any topic that drifts too far off course should be re-routed into its own thread, particularly if it's divisive and making people angry. But what I absolutely don't want to see is some sort of aggressive moderating regime where anything with a hint of topic drift gets removed. I guarantee you, that will kill this thread.

 

[Earlian]

In all fairness, the topic has been tariffs and the G20 summit. And we just saw major market-moving news directly impacting Tesla come out of exactly those topics.

True.

We had bad times with crazy OT, but the G20 will likely have some impact on the market action and therefore TSLA next week. So today i came here to find some related info and not have to search through countless so called news outlets.

Thanks @all for filtering the necessary stuff. This is especially good, while we have a wider spread input and not only the news from one country here.

Sure this also could have been posted in the general thread. But I think this year we won’t solve that.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, as far as I know, it applies to ex-Presidents.....

We can always hope for a President precedent...

 

[Mich]

For those who want us to stop talking about "offtopic" stuff and instead stay focused on "market action" - what "market action" do you expect to be happening on a Sunday, exactly? News on the tariff war is quite literally the closest thing to market action news we could possibly be discussing.

I agree that this thread should be moderated, and any topic that drifts too far off course should be re-routed into its own thread, particularly if it's divisive and making people angry. But what I absolutely don't want to see is some sort of aggressive moderating regime where anything with a hint of topic drift gets removed. I guarantee you, that will kill this thread.

If there's no market action then this thread should be silent. Especially this weekend there's a lot going on.

Don't get me wrong, I love the OT talks here but they need to be separated from a thread related to a specific topic just because it is sticky and has the most activity.

 

[Mich]

For those who want us to stop talking about "offtopic" stuff and instead stay focused on "market action" - what "market action" do you expect to be happening on a Sunday, exactly? News on the tariff war is quite literally the closest thing to market action news we could possibly be discussing.

I agree that this thread should be moderated, and any topic that drifts too far off course should be re-routed into its own thread, particularly if it's divisive and making people angry. But what I absolutely don't want to see is some sort of aggressive moderating regime where anything with a hint of topic drift gets removed. I guarantee you, that will kill this thread.

We could rename this thread to "market action and if there's no market action put all other stuff in here so people need to scroll through 30 pages on monday morning to catch up what was market action related"

 

[KarenRei]

What "market action" were you hoping to catch up on over the weekend?

To reiterate: the tariffs are the closest thing to market action we could possibly be discussing here this weekend. If you don't want to read through discussion of that, then why bother reading through posts on the weekends at all?

And now surely you realize that you're "making" people who are later to this thread than you "have to" read pages of people complaining about this thread. And I guarantee you, if they didn't want to read pages about the tariffs, they're certainly not going to read pages of complaints.

** Note that "making" and "have to" are in quotes. Nobody is making you read every post in this thread. IMHO, that's rather obsessive.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm happy with this thread as it is, thanks. I'm perfectly capable of scrolling past topics I deem irrelevant.

I think having the most idiotic astroturfer-trolls on ignore helps a great deal too.

 

[Mich]

What "market action" were you hoping to catch up on over the weekend?

To reiterate: the tariffs are the closest thing to market action we could possibly be discussing here this weekend. If you don't want to read through discussion of that, then why bother reading through posts on the weekends at all?

And now surely you realize that you're "making" people who are later to this thread than you "have to" read pages of people complaining about this thread. And I guarantee you, if they didn't want to read pages about the tariffs, they're certainly not going to read pages of complaints.

** Note that "making" and "have to" are in quotes. Nobody is making you read every post in this thread. IMHO, that's rather obsessive.

You missed the point: why use this thread for all OT??

 

[Buckminster]

I'm happy with this thread as it is, thanks. I'm perfectly capable of scrolling past topics I deem irrelevant.

I think having the most idiotic astroturfer-trolls on ignore helps a great deal too.

Friends - we have ourselves here a Mexican Standoff!
Mexican standoff - Wikipedia
There can be no winners. I suggest we all pack our bags and get on that BMW Owners Club website - you know you want to - it is our destiny after all.

 

[SebastianR]

So with regards to Market Action - could I ask for your take? I have some leveraged products that will expire 21-Dec-2018. So what are the market factors you see impacting on TSLA until then? Delivery numbers & financials is firmly next year, so I don't expect upside from this. I do expect another pop after the next delivery numbers come out, I do expect a pop after the Q4 financials. But that is out of scope for now.

So until then?

Factors I see impacting on the share price short-term are:
- Trade war (macros) -- my take is a positive
- This coming short trading week (WED is no trading in the US) -- my take is negative (we are more open to bear attacks)
- What others do/don't do: for instance the recent news about Porsche admitting that Tesla did really well (I wonder at what point it becomes common knowledge amongst the OEMs/Mr. Market in general - that Tesla did not just move first but actually has a damn good product that will be very(!) hard to copy / compete with... -- here I'm conflicted, what is your take?

What else is there that might move TSLA? Initially I wanted to sell when TSLA reaches $372 but I'm wondering if I should stop being greedy and take the gain I got so far? (not asking for advice, asking for your perspective... Thanks!)

tl;dr: What is your take on TSLA by 21-Dec-2018?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

For those who want us to stop talking about "offtopic" stuff and instead stay focused on "market action" - what "market action" do you expect to be happening on a Sunday, exactly? News on the tariff war is quite literally the closest thing to market action news we could possibly be discussing.

I agree that this thread should be moderated, and any topic that drifts too far off course should be re-routed into its own thread, particularly if it's divisive and making people angry. But what I absolutely don't want to see is some sort of aggressive moderating regime where anything with a hint of topic drift gets removed. I guarantee you, that will kill this thread.

Killing this thread is apparently what the "Market Action Hardcores" want though. I mean general discussion is technically what the General Discussion thread that no one uses is for. It's probably better to just close this thread and then the problem will solve itself.

 

[Mich]

Nice thread topic ;-)

I'd suggest to create a sticke thread "Generals Investors Off-Topic" and see what's happening.

 

[Fact Checking]

I think having the most idiotic astroturfer-trolls on ignore helps a great deal too.

JFYI, there's very few of them left, so now would be a good time to clear that ignore list and repopulate it.

My ignore list is empty, I never ignored anyone, because:

• Many of the (concern-) trolls want the people who would counter FUD to first ignore them, so that they can spread FUD with less effective opposition,
• because the pattern of trolling carries information as well (sentiment of short sellers),
• and because most trolling is rather entertaining and easy to debunk now that Tesla has so many cold hard facts in their favor.

Note how the birds impersonated by a Tesla short hedge fund manager disappeared rather abruptly, probably covering at rather disadvantageous price levels. So he believed his own FUD - karma at work.

 

[jbih]

Battery plant capacity in 2021:

China - 380 GWh
U.S. - 119 GWh
Thailand - 51 GWh
Europe - 43 GWh
Other - 36 GWh

They don't explicitly state the current numbers per country, but currently China has a multiple of the U. S. production.

Some of the big ones currently:

BYD - 26 GWh
Tesla - 20 GWh
Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) - 17 GWh
LG Chem - 12.8 GWh
Tianjin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock - 10 GWh
CBAK Energy Technology Inc - 8 GWh
Eve Energy - 7.5 GWh

Of those, Tesla is based in the U. S., LG Chem is based in Korea, the rest is based in China.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Heh. It's part of an overall strategy. People who've followed the strategies I constructed know that I sell both calls and puts as part of my strategy against stocks and other legs of the options. Most should understand that $500 is probably an important resistance and a safe strike to use. Newbies should stick to selling puts on dips.

From your post it was unclear that it was part of a construction/strategy. What’s the use of posting about just one leg of your construction, which looked counterproductive, without posting about the rest?!? And by the way, I was a full time daytrader for several years, using strangles and straddles covered by FTI’s.

 

[Fact Checking]

Now Trump is saying he is going to nullify NAFTA - so congress will have no choice but to vote for his NAFTA 2.0 (or there won't be an agreement). Not sure he can even do that unilaterally.

I predict Trump will keep his NAFTA 2.0 promise in a similar fashion he kept his promises about:

• releasing his tax returns,
• making Mexico pay for the southern 'wall',
• promises to creditors of six Trump businesses he managed to bankrupt in his long career of a swindler businessman: the Trump Taj Mahal (1991), Trump Castle Hotel & Casino (1992), Trump Plaza Casino (1992), Trump Plaza Hotel (1992), Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts (2004), Trump Entertainment Resorts (2009),
  
• swearing to God in 2016 that he had no business with Russian interests whatsoever (except that small Trump Tower Moscow thing, to become the tallest building on the planet, financed by a billion dollars of loans from Russian banks, with Ivanka already designing a spa in it, with the top floor $50m suite as a "present" to President Putin, if only this small matter of U.S. sanctions against Russia gets overturned?),
• ... and having absolutely no criminal investigation against him by the FBI, Mr. "Individual 1", soon to become Mr. "Defendant 1"?

NAFTA 2.0 is probably the most expensive renaming of an international treaty (from 'NAFTA' to 'USMCA'), ever. I suspect the representatives from Canada and Mexico couldn't really make up their mind about whether they should laugh at, roll eyes or be upset about the unnecessary expense and waste of time when they signed it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I suspect the representatives from Canada and Mexico couldn't really make up their mind whether they should laugh at, roll eyes or be upset about the unnecessary expense and waste of time when they signed it.

Hard (sad?) to believe, but this is a THING:

 

[KarenRei]

I suspect the representatives from Canada and Mexico couldn't really make up their mind about whether they should laugh at, roll eyes or be upset about the unnecessary expense and waste of time when they signed it.

Could have been worse...

Or, if you'd rather.... (appropriate sound swap)