TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[winfield100]

If only we'd gotten a thousand points of light, like he wanted. He was the last national-level Republican I respected.

@neroden
Bush may have been misheard and misquoted
From what I may have heard, he visited lake Travis, near Austin and saw “hippy hollow” and was shocked he actually said “no nude Texans” but slurred the words so it was thought he said “no new taxes”
The markets reacted as they always do

 

[Fact Checking]

From what I may have heard, he visited lake Travis, near Austin and saw “hippy hollow” and was shocked he actually said “no nude Texans” but slurred the words so it was thought he said “no new taxes”

LOL.

BTW., I wouldn't really hold the 'no new taxes' lie (well, not really a lie but a broken promise) against Bush Sr., I'd count it in favor of him - super-high net worth wealth accumulation in the U.S. is infamously under-taxed.

Also, it was another era: today President Trump is averaging about 7-8 lies per day, according to a recent fact checking tally of both the Washington Post and CNN, and that only includes his public statements...

From a Tesla POV whether it's called NAFTA or NAFTA 2.0 doesn't really matter in practice - as long as the business uncertainty is over.

 

[Tslynk67]

JFYI, there's very few of them left, so now would be a good time to clear that ignore list and repopulate it.

My ignore list is empty, I never ignored anyone, because:

• Many of the (concern-) trolls want the people who would counter FUD to first ignore them, so that they can spread FUD with less effective opposition,
• because the pattern of trolling carries information as well (sentiment of short sellers),
• and because most trolling is rather entertaining and easy to debunk now that Tesla has so many cold hard facts in their favor.

Note how the birds impersonated by a Tesla short hedge fund manager disappeared rather abruptly, probably covering at rather disadvantageous price levels. So he believed his own FUD - karma at work.

Thanks for the heads-up, FC. I had cleared it after the Q3 delivery report as I saw a lot of trolls banned, but a few started appearing back so re-ignored them - various birds and goats... Will remove and see how it goes.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Battery plant capacity in 2021:

China - 380 GWh
U.S. - 119 GWh
Thailand - 51 GWh
Europe - 43 GWh
Other - 36 GWh

They don't explicitly state the current numbers per country, but currently China has a multiple of the U. S. production.

Some of the big ones currently:

BYD - 26 GWh
Tesla - 20 GWh
Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) - 17 GWh
LG Chem - 12.8 GWh
Tianjin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock - 10 GWh
CBAK Energy Technology Inc - 8 GWh
Eve Energy - 7.5 GWh

Of those, Tesla is based in the U. S., LG Chem is based in Korea, the rest is based in China.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Very interesting article.
I like this informative graph showing Tesla on top as of 2021, however the real story is that other than BYD, there are no other OEMs listed. Tesla and BYD have a gigantic advantage by controlling their battery pipeline direct, and that advantage is growing each and every day.

 

[winfield100]

@neroden .........because of the Great Energy Transition: the switch to solar, wind, batteries, and electric cars. (Also heat pumps and insulation.) This is unstoppable. Solar doubles every two years, wind doubles every three years, EVs double every two years, and

we don't even know how fast batteries double because it's not being properly measured yet.

i realize this is a single data point, but if you frequent social media even rarely,
a video on basically "how to build your own power wall" has been viewed 1.5 _million_ times,

a casual look on facebook for various DIY powerwall interest groups gives 23,000 members in USA, 12,000 in another and there are a bunch more interest groups
theres a lot going on thats there if you actively look, so it looks like another S curve, there are books on DIY battery packs also with 2017 copyrights.

 

[Words of HABIT]

So Ford and GM basically are giving up in the "car" segment. (No clue why they would do that)
GM is going big in the SUV segment (any disrupter getting ready in this area...Y...Y...Y)
Ford is sticking with the F150 ( nobody making a F150 killer....yet)

So yeah this bad boy is ready to rocket up!

Not sure if you were being sarcastic or not. Ford and GM simply cannot make a car profitable (their are exceptions like the Mustang which is still very popular). In order to secure short term gains on their balance sheet prior to their end game, they are milking their high margin, high cost SUV and truck segments for whatever their worth.

 

[KarenRei]

1. Won’t be a single die. Will be 4 or 5 to make that part. Dies like that are on the order of at least 100k per - minimum. So looking at 1/2 M give or take. Not huge but reality.

Half a million dollars.... quarter million parts per year.... offsetting, what, $300 in glass per unit?

Is it really hard for people to see the economic argument here? All issues of "Tesla needs to have distinguishing characteristics between PUP and non-PUP" and "Tesla has already been explicit that they're going to do this" aside.

Obviously, there's no reason that Tesla has to rush into non-PUP vehicles, given their backlogs. But when they do... this is going to happen. Whether people who wish they could buy a glass-roofed non-PUP like it or not.

 

[KarenRei]

Very interesting article.
I like this informative graph showing Tesla on top as of 2021, however the real story is that other than BYD, there are no other OEMs listed. Tesla and BYD have a gigantic advantage by controlling their battery pipeline direct, and that advantage is growing each and every day.

View attachment 357188
View attachment 357189

GF3 won't control its battery pipeline, at least in the short-term. They'll be acquiring cells from other local manufacturers.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Hard (sad?) to believe, but this is a THING:

AD, why is this sad? I found the explanation of body language very informative and well thought out. It no so much what you say but how you say it. A great view for those who wish to enhance their negotiation skills. Ready body language is an art form.

 

[Off Shore]

We could rename this thread to "market action and if there's no market action put all other stuff in here so people need to scroll through 30 pages on monday morning to catch up what was market action related"

Careful what you wish for...

 

[neroden]

.. because there is nothing to debate here. He has no merit whatsoever except in conning businesses and contractors. Yes he is a conman.

If I remember correctly, Donald Trump has a Lifetime Achievement Award from World Wrestling Entertainment, for his performance skills at pretending to be a wrestling manager in their staged wrestling matches. That's his talent.

 

[neroden]

I would possibly dispute point 4 as the non-PUP vehicle might have a different material headliner anyways even if it's the same shape (though seeing as Alcantara / Ultrasuede is already gone for some time, I'm not sure how less premium you can get... )

Fabric attachment is one of those hard-to-automate bits. Solid plastic headliner which can be inserted by robots?

Not a joke. I think that actually might make sense.

 

[neroden]

A chief executive who thinks that they have the power to unilaterally revoke signed laws? Hmm, I think there's a term for this somewhere...

It's a treaty, though. The rules on treaties are weird, and differ from the rules on laws.

You could end up with really funny stuff where the treaty was revoked (some authorities think the President *can* do that) but the implementing legislation remained in law (because the President can't affect that).

 

[neroden]

So with regards to Market Action - could I ask for your take? I have some leveraged products that will expire 21-Dec-2018.

Ummmm..... bad timing?

So what are the market factors you see impacting on TSLA until then? Delivery numbers & financials is firmly next year, so I don't expect upside from this. I do expect another pop after the next delivery numbers come out, I do expect a pop after the Q4 financials. But that is out of scope for now.

So until then?

That's it?

I'm curious what sort of product you have in Denmark. If I had US-style call options, I'd sell 'em now, or next week, and switch to something which expires further in the future. (Aka "roll them out".) But you may have some other product?

What else is there that might move TSLA? Initially I wanted to sell when TSLA reaches $372 but I'm wondering if I should stop being greedy and take the gain I got so far? (not asking for advice, asking for your perspective... Thanks!)

I'm not your financial advisor and this is not financial advice. But if I had them I'd sell them and replace them with something which expires later (next March or whatever).

 

[neroden]

I predict Trump will keep his NAFTA 2.0 promise in a similar fashion he kept his promises about:

• releasing his tax returns,
• making Mexico pay for the southern 'wall',
• promises to creditors of six Trump businesses he managed to bankrupt in his long career of a swindler businessman: the Trump Taj Mahal (1991), Trump Castle Hotel & Casino (1992), Trump Plaza Casino (1992), Trump Plaza Hotel (1992), Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts (2004), Trump Entertainment Resorts (2009),
  
• swearing to God in 2016 that he had no business with Russian interests whatsoever (except that small Trump Tower Moscow thing, to become the tallest building on the planet, financed by a billion dollars of loans from Russian banks, with Ivanka already designing a spa in it, with the top floor $50m suite as a "present" to President Putin, if only this small matter of U.S. sanctions against Russia gets overturned?),
• ... and having absolutely no criminal investigation against him by the FBI, Mr. "Individual 1", soon to become Mr. "Defendant 1"?

NAFTA 2.0 is probably the most expensive renaming of an international treaty (from 'NAFTA' to 'USMCA'), ever. I suspect the representatives from Canada and Mexico couldn't really make up their mind about whether they should laugh at, roll eyes or be upset about the unnecessary expense and waste of time when they signed it.

Oh, there were changes. In "CUSMA" (as Canada is calling it), Canada and Mexico get all the provisions they originally wanted in NAFTA that the US wouldn't agree to. Those are the only significant changes. Canada's and Mexico's representatives are *smirking*. (I happen to agree with Canada and Mexico on this, so great! But it is 100% a loss for Trump.)

 

[AlMc]

As to power to withdraw from treaties: Ignore if you don't think this appropriate thread for this: https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6469&context=faculty_scholarship

**Presidents have unilaterally denounced or terminated dozens of treaties since Goldwater. One post-Goldwatertermination that generated controversy was President George W. Bush’s 2002 withdrawal from the Anti- Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia. A group of House members challenged the withdrawal, but the case was dis- missed for lack of standing and on political question grounds.10 In light of this historical practice, both theRestatement (Third) of the Foreign Relations Law of the United States and the Tentative Draft of the new Restatement (Fourth) conclude that the President has the constitutional authority to unilaterally withdraw the United States from a treaty, at least when international law allows for withdrawal.**

 

[Lucky_Man]

Friends - we have ourselves here a Mexican Standoff!
Mexican standoff - Wikipedia
There can be no winners. I suggest we all pack our bags and get on that BMW Owners Club website - you know you want to - it is our destiny after all.

If I make a suggestion...

If your post is "Market Action Related", make your first line read "Market Action Related" or
"M A R" or just "MR". If it's Off Topic, your first line could read "Off Topic" or "OT". Skip a few lines and then make your point.

This will help those who only want 'fundamentals' stuff to skip your post. I have too many TMC tabs open already and get lost far too easily. Tho, then again, maybe that's bc I'm just a grumpy 72 yo fart ;^)

Peace on you all.

 

[Cherry Wine]

So with regards to Market Action - could I ask for your take? I have some leveraged products that will expire 21-Dec-2018. So what are the market factors you see impacting on TSLA until then? Delivery numbers & financials is firmly next year, so I don't expect upside from this. I do expect another pop after the next delivery numbers come out, I do expect a pop after the Q4 financials. But that is out of scope for now.

So until then?

Factors I see impacting on the share price short-term are:
- Trade war (macros) -- my take is a positive
- This coming short trading week (WED is no trading in the US) -- my take is negative (we are more open to bear attacks)
- What others do/don't do: for instance the recent news about Porsche admitting that Tesla did really well (I wonder at what point it becomes common knowledge amongst the OEMs/Mr. Market in general - that Tesla did not just move first but actually has a damn good product that will be very(!) hard to copy / compete with... -- here I'm conflicted, what is your take?

What else is there that might move TSLA? Initially I wanted to sell when TSLA reaches $372 but I'm wondering if I should stop being greedy and take the gain I got so far? (not asking for advice, asking for your perspective... Thanks!)

tl;dr: What is your take on TSLA by 21-Dec-2018?

I would roll to a Feb or Mar call and see what happens, personally. Theta for Dec calls is ramping up.

 

[Unpilot]

Not sure if you were being sarcastic or not. Ford and GM simply cannot make a car profitable (their are exceptions like the Mustang which is still very popular). In order to secure short term gains on their balance sheet prior to their end game, they are milking their high margin, high cost SUV and truck segments for whatever their worth.

For sure I was being sarcastic....no doubt why they threw in the towel.

 

[lklundin]

The bell has rung and the game is on:

If it happens this week-end I award a free 'Informative' to the first post that informs us of Tesla's chosen settlement method for the conversion of their 2019 bonds.

Did anyone receive information about the settlement method for the 2019 bonds?

Only holders of the bonds needed to be informed, so either Tesla went with the default settlement or the note holders are now informed and keeping the information to themselves...