TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[gora321]

JLR weakness drives owner Tata Motors' deeper into junk-rating

They didn't hit the loss because of heavy investment in EV?
Compare the chances for survival with life trajectory of the company's products.

 

[avoigt]

Can see a change in germany too.

Lately there was still the Model S vs Model 3 comparison, where they tried to sell you a S.

Now we get several layers to scroll down, all praising the 3.

Looks like the production is running smooth!

Like this:
View attachment 358068

Oh and here are the german FAQs, if needed:
Bestellung und Fahrzeugübergabe - Model 3

"Alle Reservierungsinhaber in Kontinentaleuropa werden bis 31. Dezember 2018 zur Bestellung ihres Model 3 eingeladen."

Means: Everyone with a reservation will be invited to order by Dec 31.

Great news. Thats sooner than expected to be honest and quite something for me.

The ranking of deliveries is sequenced based on date of reservation, options selected and location. So we can expect as assumed before that high margin vehicles like the P will get a higher rank and delivered earlier.

Finally its confirmed that the SR is expected to be delivered 2nd half of 2019 in Europe.

• 
  Wann wird das Model 3 mit Standardreichweite verfügbar?
  Das Model 3 mit Standardreichweite wird voraussichtlich in der zweiten Hälfte von 2019 verfügbar.

That indicates that they are on track with delivering in Q2 in the US if all goes according to plan. If we add the information we have seen in the mail from Elon than we can predict that they are on track with making the SR profitable. Delays can always happen but they also could choose to deliver the SR with more options and higher ASP first and still work on profitability. Without the certainty to make it happen they would not announce the SR for Europe today.

This is important because the market does still not believe the SR will be delivered and some shorts still claim not at all. With the SR in delivery in 2019 a huge new demand market is addressed and will jump up and down to somehow scratch the money together to somehow be able to order one. Not to mention a tremendous additional pressure on legacy automakers. All what they can hope for is that Tesla will be delayed in deliveries and strongly constrained with production.

In fact I do see quite some positive news coming out in the next 6 months that should lift the SP in a significant way. We are not far away from previous ATH and that indicates we get above if the news come in and no major issue or distraction happens. I find it hard to design a negative scenario and the market action yesterday was very telling.

Marcos are my biggest concern right now e.g. Brexit, instability in the US (Trump) investigation, Russia crisis with Ukraine a.o.

 

[Tslynk67]

Artiste's rendition of today's market action

AMD and NVDA having been already obliterated in the fireball...

 

[Tslynk67]

More like 2030, since they're launching the new engine in 2026.

So they continue with this madness past the date where she countries already say they will have banned ICE?

Smart!

It batteries though, isn't it, they don't have them and will take a long time to get the factories up-and-running.

Tesla are so far ahead it's embarrassing (for them)

 

[Green46]

I'm very long on Tesla and will forever be grateful of their contribution to this oil infested society, but a couple of things I read have started creating some dark thoughts:

1. Is it true that for Q3 they have changed the method of calculating delivered vehicles to include vehicles produced but not yet fully in hands of buyer?

2. Many new buyers are getting their vehicle in a matter of days from order to delivery. This is a great result in terms of delivery timings, but it begs the question of what happened to orders pending? Many are the 35k version which is yet to come, sure, but has demand for higher spec version dried out already in 2-3 months? I can only hope that China and EU start ordering higher spec M3 or seems like that beautiful production trajectory will encounter some bad days.

3. Speaking of production trajectory, that bloomberg production estimate which has been completely spot-on since beginning of M3 production is showing production slowing down, and is now at 4,000 /wk. Why is this still not at 6k, and why is it going down iso up?

 

[Tslynk67]

Not sure if has been reported already, but at some point in the last 24 hours the Swiss website has been updated to the latest US/Canada layout. With model 3 right on top (as it was for sometime in US).
I imagine this applies to all Europe.
Even more exciting news is that FAQ now says all reservation holders will receive invitation to configure before the end of 2018, and orders placed before the end of the year will be delivered in first half of 2019.

It’s happening!!!

(maybe this is part of the reason fox yesterday’s strength)

Not changed in Belgium, but France yes. Odd.

Not in a rush for our M3 anyway, want the most basic of basic and may well roll it to a Model Y when we see it.

 

[SebastianR]

OT:

So they continue with this madness past the date where she countries already say they will have banned ICE?

Smart!

It batteries though, isn't it, they don't have them and will take a long time to get the factories up-and-running.

Tesla are so far ahead it's embarrassing (for them)

A few little facts are striking to me:

1) The Dieselscandal (approx 30B) cost VW more money than ever invested in Tesla (14.5B - i.e. all equity rounds, all dept according to Crunchbase)

2) German car makers invested more new(!) money into ICE Engine R&D since the Diesel scandal broke than ever were invested in Tesla...

3) the announcement from Audi yesterday to invest 15B into E-Mobility is the "right" magnitude if you compare to Tesla but is a few years late... (similar argument applies to Mercedes and its investment).

If you consider all of the above, Tesla seems to be a incredibly capital efficient if you compare where they stand vs. the other guys...

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm very long on Tesla and will forever be grateful of their contribution to this oil infested society, but a couple of things I read have started creating some dark thoughts:

1. Is it true that for Q3 they have changed the method of calculating delivered vehicles to include vehicles produced but not yet fully in hands of buyer?

No, this is not correct, the car has to be delivered. Interested where you heard this false information. If it were the case then M3 deliveries for September would have been >22k.

2. Many new buyers are getting their vehicle in a matter of days from order to delivery. This is a great result in terms of delivery timings, but it begs the question of what happened to orders pending? Many are the 35k version which is yet to come, sure, but has demand for higher spec version dried out already in 2-3 months? I can only hope that China and EU start ordering higher spec M3 or seems like that beautiful production trajectory will encounter some bad days.

I think it's a no-brainer that a large %age of M3 orders are for the base model, which is fine, those that can afford the P3D could also afford a S or X, the M3 will be a second car - as i our case.

Tesla's strategy right now is to maximise deliveries, so they give priority to West Coast, higher spec. It's a sound business tactic. Next year when they get the production costs lower and have less capex they will be able to introduce low specs to a wider audience.

For sure, Europe and China will gobble-up a few months of P3D's and the like.

3. Speaking of production trajectory, that bloomberg production estimate which has been completely spot-on since beginning of M3 production is showing production slowing down, and is now at 4,000 /wk. Why is this still not at 6k, and why is it going down iso up?

Because it's wrong - we saw the same last quarter, very low until the real figures were announced, then like magic, it changed. I put sustained production at 5.5k, with burst-rates up to 7k in individual departments.

My responses in bold...

 

[Buckminster]

Marcos are my biggest concern right now e.g. Brexit, instability in the US (Trump) investigation, Russia crisis with Ukraine a.o.

Big day on Brexit yesterday. Teresa May's power has seriously been reduced. EU pushed too hard - could now go in any direction.

 

[Buckminster]

The Large Hadron Collider just shut down
CERN continue to amaze me by shutting down for 1-2 years at a time to improve. No other organisation (apart from Elon's) makes these big moves. It usually pays off - shareholders (generally..) have a lot to answer for in limiting progress.

 

[NicoV]

Not sure if has been reported already, but at some point in the last 24 hours the Swiss website has been updated to the latest US/Canada layout. With model 3 right on top (as it was for sometime in US).
I imagine this applies to all Europe.
Even more exciting news is that FAQ now says all reservation holders will receive invitation to configure before the end of 2018, and orders placed before the end of the year will be delivered in first half of 2019.

It’s happening!!!

(maybe this is part of the reason fox yesterday’s strength)

That FAQ update is also like that in Dutch, so I guess it applies for all of Europe (not including rhd countries).

 

[Fact Checking]

Volkswagen says last generation of combustion engines to be launched in 2026 | Reuters

VW is the first biggie to really wake up.

I think VW is still deluding themselves: by 2026 the only new combustion engines launched will be SpaceX ones ...

By 2026 the EV market will be red-hot like an MVac nozzle extender 2 minutes into the burn.

VW will be scrambling to keep up with the EV market that will be at its max-Q - squandering hundreds of millions on launching a new engine with incomplete combustion that emits carcinogens that will be outlawed within years Just Won't Happen™ - VW will have plenty of excess, idle ICE capacity to worry about.

Come the 2030s I think the only legal combustion allowed in a growing number of civilized countries will be the full-flow type of Raptor engines, that emits water vapor and carbon dioxide:

(With the carbon preferably captured from the atmosphere beforehand.)

 

[KarenRei]

That FAQ update is also like that in Dutch, so I guess it applies for all of Europe (not including rhd countries).

It doesn't say that in "Other Europe", which is a category that's entirely LHD. But maybe they're just being cautious with that category.

 

[Carl Raymond]

The joke of the day!

Bentley says battery tech not ready for ultraluxury EV

Or this: (the range from $230 to $500)

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Stock Rating Reaffirmed by UBS Group

UBS Group reaffirmed their sell rating on shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) in a report released on Tuesday, November 20th, www.boersen-zeitung.de reports. UBS Group currently has a $230.00 price target on the electric vehicle producer’s stock.

TSLA has been the topic of a number of other research reports. Berenberg Bank reissued a buy rating and set a $500.00 price objective on shares of Tesla in a report on Wednesday, August 8th. Jefferies Financial Group boosted their price objective on shares of Tesla from $250.00 to $360.00 and gave the stock a neutral rating in a report on Wednesday, August 8th. Needham & Company LLC reissued a sell rating on shares of Tesla in a report on Wednesday, August 8th. Sanford C. Bernstein reissued a neutral rating and set a $265.00 price objective on shares of Tesla in a report on Wednesday, August 8th. Finally, JPMorgan Chase & Co. reissued a sell rating and set a $308.00 price objective on shares of Tesla in a report on Wednesday, August 8th. Thirteen research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, fourteen have issued a hold rating, eleven have assigned a buy rating and two have issued a strong buy rating to the stock. Tesla presently has a consensus rating of Hold and an average price target of $314.63.

I guess it tells us who has covered and who remains a bit short.

 

[sweter]

Friend from The Netherlands messaged me saying that invites are out (he himself is not a reservation holder), but I can't find confirmation from another source.

But Dutch FAQ page for Model 3 was updated: Bestelling en levering - Model 3

The friend also quoted some prices (which again, I can't find anywhere, but I haven't had coffee yet... ) and they all include 21% VAT and no incentives:
- 58,800 EUR for Long Range AWD
- 69,700 EUR for Performance AWD
- 5,300 EUR for EAP

EDIT: Found a source: Tesla Model 3 vanaf nu te configureren

 

[sweter]

It doesn't say that in "Other Europe", which is a category that's entirely LHD. But maybe they're just being cautious with that category.

Im in the same boat, reserved from "Other Europe" (Poland). This is for countries where there is no Tesla presence so we're probably at the very end of the queue... I just hope "Continental Europe" is included in "Other Europe"

 

[Fact Checking]

1. Is it true that for Q3 they have changed the method of calculating delivered vehicles to include vehicles produced but not yet fully in hands of buyer?

False.

2. Many new buyers are getting their vehicle in a matter of days from order to delivery.

Misleading.

Unusually fast deliveries were reported all the way back to the summer and shorts lost a lot of money assuming soft demand:

• If you order today then delivery is not promised for December anymore, it's December-January.
• Tesla does Model 3 production in batches to increase production efficiency, so if you order just the right options and another owner delays delivery, you might luck out.
• The performance version is still fast-tracked to incentivise higher margin sales - but margins are exceptional all across the range.
• Tesla improved its logistics chain: they recently bought trucking capacity and all around are trying to speed up deliveries.
• West coast deliveries might be fast-tracked as well, to reduce inventory.
• In January deliveries to Europe (and maybe China) will begin. The configurator still hasn't opened for European customers - which means they are busy meeting U.S. and Canada demand.
• The U.S. is probably around 30% of the global premium sedan market. If we extrapolate that then at current production levels Tesla has at least 4 more quarters to meet demand that is waiting for the Model 3 - and after that meet the demand of the rapidly growing EV market.

3. Speaking of production trajectory, that bloomberg production estimate which has been completely spot-on since beginning of M3 production is showing production slowing down, and is now at 4,000 /wk. Why is this still not at 6k, and why is it going down iso up?

Misleading.

That is largely an artifact of Bloomberg's model, they are relying primarily on VIN registrations, which in the past were granular and followed production, but for Q4 Tesla registered only a single very large batch of VINs only (and a couple of non-U.S. VINs:

Model 3 VINs​

The result is that the Bloomberg tracker is not able to follow the real fluctuations of Model 3 production anymore:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?​

The "lowering" of production is simply how the spike averages out week after week - it's not representative of the real production rate.

 

[AlexS]

can somebody dig out Canada model 3 numbers for October and November?

 

[Carl Raymond]

More like 2030, since they're launching the new engine in 2026.

Just in time for ICE sales to drop to around zero, according to this:

EVs, Oil, And ICE: Impact By 2023 And Beyond | Seeking Alpha

Edit: if unable to view, Now You Know discuss on YouTube, Tuesday's In Depth edition.

 

[avoigt]

Friend from The Netherlands messaged me saying that invites are out (he himself is not a reservation holder), but I can't find confirmation from another source.

But Dutch FAQ page for Model 3 was updated: Bestelling en levering - Model 3

The friend also quoted some prices (which again, I can't find anywhere, but I haven't had coffee yet... ) and they all include 21% VAT and no incentives:
- 58,800 EUR for Long Range AWD
- 69,700 EUR for Performance AWD
- 5,300 EUR for EAP

EDIT: Found a source: Tesla Model 3 vanaf nu te configureren

Same in Germany. The media reports pricing is out but I cannot find it on the website so the source is unclear to me.

Pricing:

LR € 57 900
P € 68 900

Pricing in Germany usually includes VAT and excludes incentives.

Tesla Model 3: Preise & Details für Deutschland - ecomento.de

Below European prices as an overview as well as option pricing for Germanx
Tesla Model 3. Elektroauto wird ab Februar 2019 in Europa ausgeliefert

France pricing includes incentives and they also have details about options:

En France, le prix de la Tesla Model 3 commencera d'abord à 53 500 euros - Vroom - Numerama