EVNow
Well-Known Member
That should show up in the # of shares shorted, which is still very high.
But, one good thing is - Hedge Funds were the main originators of FUD. With them moving out of Tesla, we should see less FUD (already happening).
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But, one good thing is - Hedge Funds were the main originators of FUD. With them moving out of Tesla, we should see less FUD (already happening).
EVNow
Well-Known Member
In some companies in the US - the benefits are good. It is not uncommon to have unlimited paid time off, 6 months parents leave etc. Places like Tesla & Amazon are becoming the exceptions in the tech industry. Ofcourse US is terrible for the non-union working class (esp. gig workers).Welcome to European benefits
We in Iceland consider ourselves laggards with a minimum 4 weeks paid vacation for all employees per year (and if you get sick on a vacation that counts as sick time, not vacation time), 3 months paid maternity leave, 3 months paid paternity leave, and an additional 3 months to be split as the parents choose.
We're trying to improve
BTW, the # of hours worked is a terrible measure in the "knowledge industry". If I worked 80 hours a week (or even 60) - I'd be terrible. I'll make too many mistakes, will come up with almost no new ideas and the creativity will plummet. I think there is a sweet spot for every individual - that is why it is best to set targets of output rather than targets of input.
I think I found a clue regarding the 'titanium mystery' of why Elon is using titanium in the Tesla Pickup Truck, there's been a recent breakthrough in titanium alloys:
"Enhanced strength and ductility in a high-entropy alloy via ordered oxygen complexes."
"The tensile strength is enhanced (by 48.5 ± 1.8 per cent) and ductility is substantially improved (by 95.2 ± 8.1 per cent) when doping a model TiZrHfNb HEA with 2.0 atomic per cent oxygen, thus breaking the long-standing strength-ductility trade-off"
Fuller article:
Enhanced strength and ductility in a high-entropy alloy via ordered oxygen complexes
Published in Nature.
TL;DR: tensile strength improved by ~50%, ease of manufacturing (ductility, anti-brittleness) increased by 90%. The article was published three weeks ago.
This is a very significant break-through in titanium alloys materials science and probably explains why SpaceX started experimenting with titanium-cast grid fins on the Falcon 9: 50% higher tensile strength moves titanium into the carbon fiber strength class (!), without the numerous disadvantages of carbon fiber. (Unless I'm mis-reading the numbers.)
Titanium alloys have very good properties for rocket technology:
Anyway, this also has relevance for Tesla Pickup Truck economics:
- Titanium has very good high temperature properties and is very good for atmospheric re-entry: small channels can pump water out into the re-entry plasma shock layer and create a steam heat-shield that is opaque to infrared, allowing interplanetary speed atmospheric re-entries. The very dense metal conducts any residual heat very well which can be cooled actively, and also acts as a passive heat sink. This might be the 'delightfully counter-intuitive design' of the SpaceX Starship (used to be BFS) Elon alluded to on Twitter recently. This would save a lot of mass on one of the heaviest components of any re-entry vehicle: the heat shield. With a 'steam heat-shield' on top of a titanium surface would save a lot of mass, as the same titanium would serve as the rocket's regular skin/tank load bearing unibody as well. It would be a fundamentally reusable heat-shield, as it only requires one depleting resource: a small reservoir of water.
- Titanium has very good low temperature (cryogenic) properties, it doesn't get brittle at low temperatures like carbon fiber and I think there are Titanium-Aluminum alloys that don't spontaneously combust in the presence of liquid oxygen, which could form the inner skin of the cryogenic tanks.
- Titanium alloys are very corrosion resistant - so no paint required and no worries from corrosion fatigue. A highly reflective, polished surface would allow effective long term cryogenic rocket fuel storage, such as when coasting ~3-4 months from Earth to Mars. Titanium also doesn't have the really bad stress fatigue properties of the aluminum-lithium alloy SpaceX currently uses for the Falcon 9 (and which problem is also plaguing the airline industry).
Elon gave up a PhD position at Stanford in materials sciences to work on what would become Paypal, so he'd be aware of such developments. (I think there was an interview where he said that he's a materials sciences engineer at heart, but I'm not sure.)
- 50% higher tensile strength means ~33% weight reduction for the same strength chassis/frame structure, plus better manufacturing properties mean cheaper, more durable tooling and faster production.
- The Pickup Truck panels would still be aluminum IMHO, because they are not load-bearing - so the nice coloring of titanium alloys would be limited to where the chassis is visible.
- Very little steel to no steel would be used - which again improves corrosion resistance.
- High ductility would actually allow the titanium frame to be repaired/pulled in a much wider range than regular titanium alloys - which would improve serviceability.
So I think that's one component of Elon's secret Tesla Pickup Truck plan. You heard it here first.
Who are you?
ZachF
Active Member
I think I found a clue regarding the 'titanium mystery' of why Elon is using titanium in the Tesla Pickup Truck, there's been a recent breakthrough in titanium alloys:
"Enhanced strength and ductility in a high-entropy alloy via ordered oxygen complexes."
"The tensile strength is enhanced (by 48.5 ± 1.8 per cent) and ductility is substantially improved (by 95.2 ± 8.1 per cent) when doping a model TiZrHfNb HEA with 2.0 atomic per cent oxygen, thus breaking the long-standing strength-ductility trade-off"
Fuller article:
Enhanced strength and ductility in a high-entropy alloy via ordered oxygen complexes
Published in Nature.
TL;DR: tensile strength improved by ~50%, ease of manufacturing (ductility, anti-brittleness) increased by 90%. The article was published three weeks ago.
This is a very significant break-through in titanium alloys materials science and probably explains why SpaceX started experimenting with titanium-cast grid fins on the Falcon 9: 50% higher tensile strength moves titanium into the carbon fiber strength class (!), without the numerous disadvantages of carbon fiber. (Unless I'm mis-reading the numbers.)
Titanium alloys have very good properties for rocket technology:
Anyway, this also has relevance for Tesla Pickup Truck economics:
- Titanium has very good high temperature properties and is very good for atmospheric re-entry: small channels can pump water out into the re-entry plasma shock layer and create a steam heat-shield that is opaque to infrared, allowing interplanetary speed atmospheric re-entries. The very dense metal conducts any residual heat very well which can be cooled actively, and also acts as a passive heat sink. This might be the 'delightfully counter-intuitive design' of the SpaceX Starship (used to be BFS) Elon alluded to on Twitter recently. This would save a lot of mass on one of the heaviest components of any re-entry vehicle: the heat shield. With a 'steam heat-shield' on top of a titanium surface would save a lot of mass, as the same titanium would serve as the rocket's regular skin/tank load bearing unibody as well. It would be a fundamentally reusable heat-shield, as it only requires one depleting resource: a small reservoir of water.
- Titanium has very good low temperature (cryogenic) properties, it doesn't get brittle at low temperatures like carbon fiber and I think there are Titanium-Aluminum alloys that don't spontaneously combust in the presence of liquid oxygen, which could form the inner skin of the cryogenic tanks.
- Titanium alloys are very corrosion resistant - so no paint required and no worries from corrosion fatigue. A highly reflective, polished surface would allow effective long term cryogenic rocket fuel storage, such as when coasting ~3-4 months from Earth to Mars. Titanium also doesn't have the really bad stress fatigue properties of the aluminum-lithium alloy SpaceX currently uses for the Falcon 9 (and which problem is also plaguing the airline industry).
Elon gave up a PhD position at Stanford in materials sciences to work on what would become Paypal, so he'd be aware of such developments. (I think there was an interview where he said that he's a materials sciences engineer at heart, but I'm not sure.)
- 50% higher tensile strength means ~33% weight reduction for the same strength chassis/frame structure, plus better manufacturing properties mean cheaper, more durable tooling and faster production.
- The Pickup Truck panels would still be aluminum IMHO, because they are not load-bearing - so the nice coloring of titanium alloys would be limited to where the chassis is visible.
- Very little steel to no steel would be used - which again improves corrosion resistance.
- High ductility would actually allow the titanium frame to be repaired/pulled in a much wider range than regular titanium alloys - which would improve serviceability.
So I think that's one component of Elon's secret Tesla Pickup Truck plan. You heard it here first.
Interesting analysis.
It should also be noted that on the SpaceX side, BFR has been sped up because of a rumored materials breakthrough, and many are speculating on a material that can double as both a structure and a heat shield...
Software engineers even work while they’re dreaming, and many produce best code in late night. There are something called flow mode.
So, they already work crazy hours even if they don’t show up in office that much. Arguably they are more productive when they show up less in office.
some of us, still here and whatever, did get to visit Kaua'i for a few weeks, subsidized a bit by TSLA shortz (a sincere thankz) and saw the "Lilo and Stitch" house in Hanapepe. quite a tasty visit, (even better subsidized by a few TSLA shares courtesy of shortz, who chastized me for not taking any profitz, so eye did), {even tho you cannot get a visit to the PV/battery array up Mahlo road, [i asked] at the office in Lihue }
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TL;DR: tensile strength improved by ~50%, ease of manufacturing (ductility, anti-brittleness) increased by 90%. The article was published three weeks ago.
This is a very significant break-through in titanium alloys materials science ....
...
- 50% higher tensile strength means ~33% weight reduction for the same strength chassis/frame structure, plus better manufacturing properties mean cheaper, more durable tooling and faster production.
- The Pickup Truck panels would still be aluminum IMHO, because they are not load-bearing - so the nice coloring of titanium alloys would be limited to where the chassis is visible.
- Very little steel to no steel would be used - which again improves corrosion resistance.
- High ductility would actually allow the titanium frame to be repaired/pulled in a much wider range than regular titanium alloys - which would improve serviceability.
So I think that's one component of Elon's secret Tesla Pickup Truck plan. You heard it here first.
2) That's just a research paper. That doesn't mean that it's production-ready.
Aerospace titanium alloys are already great, they don't need a new reason. If their budget allows for them to use titanium... then go for it
OK, I really don't understand why are you obsessing about titanium strength? I have a feeling that it will be destructive to the vehicle occupants... What is the crumple zone for, which makes Teslas the most safe vehicle? It's supposed to crumple. And if it doesn't and your car flies away from the accident scene as a ping pong ball, how do you think you will feel inside the car?
Can I buy stock in a person? If so I'm ready to go all in on a Fact Checking / KarenRei potential offspring.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
It will still crumple. If the material is lighter and stronger you can have the same strength using less material and save a lot of weight.
So cars should be built 100% out of talcum powder, then?
You have to have structural strength - period. Model 3 doesn't use UHSS on a lark. Crumple zones need to crumple in a controlled manner, which means having some components stronger than others so that things fold in a proscribed manner. The passenger safety cell (most of the vehicle's volume, and also containing the battery pack) isn't supposed to crumple at all. Certain parts of the vehicle are put under heavy stress just in normal driving conditions (think of the force you need to resist all around the body as a nearly-1-tonne battery comes slamming down as the car goes over a speed bump), let alone adverse conditions. All the moreso with a pickup, which may be used galloping across rugged terrain with a heavy mass of irregular goods sliding around in its bed, or dragging some payload far heavier than the entire truck. Don't want strength? Your truck will just simply fall apart.
You have to bear these loads. You can bear them with high specific strength materials, or low specific strength materials. The latter means your vehicle is much heavier and less efficient (and all of that extra weight has knock-on effects against your safety). If you have the budget for higher specific-strength materials, why wouldn't you use them?
Answer: You would. And Tesla does.
Even within a crumple zone, think about it for a second. Let's say you want a beam to yield at X newtons of force. You can build that beam out of a high specific strength material or a low specific strength material. Which one do you want? The high specific strength material, of course. It's the same strength, same yield conditions, but it's lighter.
Weight is not a good thing. And that's what low specific strength materials mean: more weight.
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cheshire cat
Member
And what about youth unemployment in Spain ( 26-28?% ? ). Greece Italy et-al It' not all beer and skittles in the EU, you know I 'm sure Drunker and his mates will have it sorted in next to no time.
mltv
Member
I wouldn't put too much into the first truck version. after all, Elon did not care too much if it (the first version) sell. What is important is the cool factor. Maybe it is a very expensive version to gauge which out of this world features that the customer really want in a redefine truck.So cars should be built 100% out of talcum powder, then?
You have to have structural strength - period. Model 3 doesn't use UHSS on a lark. Crumple zones need to crumple in a controlled manner, which means having some components stronger than others so that things fold in a proscribed manner. The passenger safety cell (most of the vehicle's volume, and also containing the battery pack) isn't supposed to crumple at all. Certain parts of the vehicle are put under heavy stress just in normal driving conditions (think of the force you need to resist all around the body as a nearly-1-tonne battery comes slamming down as the car goes over a speed bump), let alone adverse conditions. All the moreso with a pickup, which may be used galloping across rugged terrain with a heavy mass of irregular goods sliding around in its bed, or dragging some payload far heavier than the entire truck. Don't want strength? Your truck will just simply fall apart.
You have to bear these loads. You can bear them with high specific strength materials, or low specific strength materials. The latter means your vehicle is much heavier and less efficient (and all of that extra weight has knock-on effects against your safety). If you have the budget for higher specific-strength materials, why wouldn't you use them?
(Answer: You would. And Tesla does.)
Mycroft
Life happens
Wherr did all those people go who were posting five years ago?
Literally, sailing our yacht in Pacific Mexico. Currently in Mazatlán.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Literally, sailing our yacht in Pacific Mexico. Currently in Mazatlán.
Love it! It would be fun to have some more of the old gang post here again and give us an update.
This is definitely a word of caution short term to all of us who want to go super-bullish.
Macros can tank TSLA if there's a massive sell off of mutual funds etc. And I always wonder if those technical traders are the ones causing the self fulfilling prophecy by initiating the selloff.
I'm watching Yellow Vest protesters clash with the police in Paris.
This is war!
We have to think also about impact on society. I have read that 10% of US jobs are threatened because of automatization, robotisation, AI in 2018 only. That is huge impact. with such speed you lose all jobs in <10years! If we add loss of jobs due to EV transition then governments should act (not with wars hopefully).
One of possibility is UBI for sure.
C'mon move your butts! CO2 reductions and UBI is waiting!
Edit: UBI=Universal basic income
All of the posts above are very intersting in the sense that Tesla growth may fall into the period of extensive automation and massive job losses. The question is whether new alternative job descriptions present themselves or governments need to find a way to contain unrest and provide basic income. So much potential here for offtopic discussion. I heard some opinions that the main problem will be to teach people live their life with nothing much to do and not go crazy, the way royalty lived before. Find some ways to spend time like "healthy cooking etc." I.e. this starts at 36 hours week and then 30 and then 20...Robots do everything, a few wealthy ones who manage robots I guess get to own private islands or space stations a.k.a "Elysium(2013)" and the rest of people eventually end up living in a slum?(I hope not) or most productive ones get to live in the city and the rest wander in a desert "Code 46(2003)"?(this one seemed more realistic and scary)
Some challenging tasks ahead...Besides solving the environmental issues, also need to control unrest and unemployment somehow.
Oh, and population growth and food/water scarcity? Lots of "fun" ahead.
Wondering if this has potential to give stock a big kick in the butt on Mon? What do people think?Elon is tweeting right now, at a pretty quick pace. He seems really hyped about FSD/Nav on AP
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Here is the problem with Musk - "soon" the car can go from home to office. What is soon - people can interpret it as one moth or couple of years.Elon is tweeting right now, at a pretty quick pace. He seems really hyped about FSD/Nav on AP
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