TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Anstandswauwau]

Why did Elon unfollow 60 minutes?

He didn't, or at least re-followed since that post.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why did Elon unfollow 60 minutes?

Um, he didn't buy any commercials on their show?

The time when FUD was effective is over. We have financials now. 60 Min is late to the show, and has already had their 15 min of fame.

CH3ERS!

 

[SpaceCash]

Hate to be that guy but ... are we really taking this at face value? European sales and service folks probably wouldn't have this info, only senior management or people involved in deposits/orders. So some of them leaked this info in the last day or two and multiple reports found their way to this person?

It's probably not that far off the actual number, but still. I'm also unclear how this translates to $1,000 a share, especially given that everyone already knows that there were around ~150-200k reservations in Europe.

You're taking it too literally

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Hate to be that guy but ... are we really taking this at face value? European sales and service folks probably wouldn't have this info, only senior management or people involved in deposits/orders. So some of them leaked this info in the last day or two and multiple reports found their way to this person?

It's probably not that far off the actual number, but still. I'm also unclear how this translates to $1,000 a share, especially given that everyone already knows that there were around ~150-200k reservations in Europe.

As far as I can tell, that guy just seems to enjoy trolling shorts on Twitter. I’d take it with a grain of salt, or maybe a frunkload of salt.

 

[FrANce]

That's what happens when you cut taxes for the wealthy - but increase taxes on the others.

Capital gains tax in France is 36.2%.
Income taxes are:
Below €9,700 0%
From €9,711 to €26,818 14%
From €26,818 to €71,898 30%
From €71,898 to €152,260 41%

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

You're taking it too literally

True ... but only bc others are taking these kinds of posts literally. Just trying to balance it out with a healthy dose of skepticism.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Hate to be that guy but ... are we really taking this at face value? European sales and service folks probably wouldn't have this info, only senior management or people involved in deposits/orders. So some of them leaked this info in the last day or two and multiple reports found their way to this person?

Not saying this is true, but he didn't disclose his source, right?

So I think you either misread his tweet or jumped to (a possibly wrong) conclusion.

 

[anthonyj]

Longs tm

 

[printf42]

OT

Great to see we flushed out so many long term investors this weekend.
Wonder what the SP will do on Monday.

• Seems macro is not getting better, so there might be more margin calls for short sellers, actually some might got the call on Friday already.
• Europe deposits rumors could be good, half reservation holders config within a week, with most of them probably never seen the car let alone driven it. This puts serious dent on the short theory of diminishing demand with bad macro.
• Elon’s FSD tweets sounds much sooner than previous ones although there’s not even an Elon time attached.
• 60min interview is an uncertainty, there could be another magnifier on wet eyes, and attempts to paint a image that’s not a real Elon.

Your thoughts?

 

[Artful Dodger]

OK, I really don't understand why are you obsessing about titanium strength? I have a feeling that it will be destructive to the vehicle occupants... What is the crumple zone for, which makes Teslas the most safe vehicle? It's supposed to crumple. And if it doesn't and your car flies away from the accident scene as a ping pong ball, how do you think you will feel inside the car?

It's not absolute strength, its the strength-to-weight ratio (S/W) that matters. Specify the strength required for a given component, and then balance cost vs weight of the selected material according to your design performance goals.

Addtionally, other criticisims of this new alloy based on the price of ingredient elements is premature without knowing the ratio of those constituents, and the trade-off obtained in the S/W/Cost equation.

Materials S/W ratio is absolutely critical to EVs (such as the theorized Tesla pickup truck) which carry multi-thousand pound batteries.

SpaceX ed. Roadster 2 will definately benefit from such exotic materials, given higher price point. But I suspect the new 'cyberpuck pickup' is targeting the Ford F-150 Raptor, which itself is a high water mark in ICE design, technology, and performance.

Dethroning the likes of the F-150 Raptor and other hi-perf off-road pickups (pre-runners) in a race like say, the Baja-1000, would be absolutely ELECTRIFYING for the enthusiast community. Imagine, 1000 miles racing offroad without stopping to recharge.

Cheers!

 

[ZeApelido]

Just FYI Elon made a tweet at 3am but then deleted it very soon after, so I didn't get to see what it all said. But the sentence started with CRISPR.

Probably a good thing he deleted it.

 

[Causalien]

Literally true in my case... sitting in Sydney harbourside apartment bought with Tesla profits. Except I don't surf.

Wait you are hiar? Let's go grab a drink.

 

[Alketi]

Here is the problem with Musk - "soon" the car can go from home to office. What is soon - people can interpret it as one moth or couple of years.

No! You have it exactly backwards. The problem has always been that he's given specific dates INSTEAD of saying "soon".

He should only say "soon" or use other non-specific terms. His specific dates are always too optimistic and ultimately held against him.

 

[dc_h]

Hate to be that guy but ... are we really taking this at face value? European sales and service folks probably wouldn't have this info, only senior management or people involved in deposits/orders. So some of them leaked this info in the last day or two and multiple reports found their way to this person?

It's probably not that far off the actual number, but still. I'm also unclear how this translates to $1,000 a share, especially given that everyone already knows that there were around ~150-200k reservations in Europe.

I’m not taking it at face value. Great if true, and I can see10,000 Norway orders alone. Whatever the number, enough to keep Fremont running flat out throughout q2, until the SR is out.

 

[EVNow]

Capital gains tax in France is 36.2%.
Income taxes are:
Below €9,700 0%
From €9,711 to €26,818 14%
From €26,818 to €71,898 30%
From €71,898 to €152,260 41%

What were they before the cuts ? Let me quote that communist rag - Financial Times.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

France has slashed its contentious wealth tax and introduced a flat rate on capital gains as president Emmanuel Macron used his first budget to unleash business-friendly policies aimed at attracting investors and revitalising the eurozone’s second-largest economy. The French parliament on Tuesday adopted a package of measures for 2018 that included scrapping the wealth levy on everything except property assets — in effect cutting the tax by 70 per cent. A 30 per cent flat tax rate will also be introduced on capital gains, dividends and interests — a longstanding demand from investors and entrepreneurs. The tax cuts, which fulfil promises made on the campaign trail, were seized on by Mr Macron’s political opponents as further evidence that he was the “president of the rich”.

Now, from an actual left magazine.

Macron’s Gift to the Rich

Surprise, surprise: Emmanuel Macron's first budget slashes taxes on wealth and guts social spending.

 

[dc_h]

Capital gains tax in France is 36.2%.
Income taxes are:
Below €9,700 0%
From €9,711 to €26,818 14%
From €26,818 to €71,898 30%
From €71,898 to €152,260 41%

Are there other provincial and city taxes? We have state, city, sales and property taxes, in most states anyhow. I think Europe property taxes tend to be higher.

 

[EVNow]

No! You have it exactly backwards. The problem has always been that he's given specific dates INSTEAD of saying "soon".

He should only say "soon" or use other non-specific terms. His specific dates are always too optimistic and ultimately held against him.

Don't say "soon". Say "in a couple of year" (or whatever timeframe EM is actually thinking about).

Soon will be interpreted as a couple of months at most by many.

edit : The problem is - EM thinks of twitter as a relaxed way of just expressing his optimism and excitement. But since he is also the CEO, it is different than a third party saying the same thing.

 

[sweter]

Hate to be that guy but ... are we really taking this at face value? European sales and service folks probably wouldn't have this info, only senior management or people involved in deposits/orders. So some of them leaked this info in the last day or two and multiple reports found their way to this person?

It's probably not that far off the actual number, but still. I'm also unclear how this translates to $1,000 a share, especially given that everyone already knows that there were around ~150-200k reservations in Europe.

It's probably really far off the actual number. I'd be really really surprised if it crossed 50k by now. Only half of Europe can order at the moment and many people from the countries that can haven't received invites yet. And from what I read on some forums / FB groups, a lot of people are waiting for cheaper options (I'd bet more than a half, but this is all anecdotal). So maybe there will be 50k orders by end of the year when whole of Europe can order.

Just FYI Elon made a tweet at 3am but then deleted it very soon after, so I didn't get to see what it all said. But the sentence started with CRISPR.

Probably a good thing he deleted it.

Was just a retweet of some article.

 

[Lessmog]

Just FYI Elon made a tweet at 3am but then deleted it very soon after, so I didn't get to see what it all said. But the sentence started with CRISPR.

Probably a good thing he deleted it.

I can still see something about Harvard using CRISPR to gene-edit sperms, if that's what you mean? Seems very cryptic and possibly apocryphical too. Maybe best left alone.

 

[Fact Checking]

SpaceX ed. Roadster 2 will definately benefit from exotic materials, given higher price point.

I'd also expect the first iteration of the Tesla Pickup Truck to have a higher price - north of $100K I'd guess.

First establish pickup truck street creds with a <100k/year production rate, then extend into mass production. The specs of the Rivian pickup truck looked good enough to me, but I guess Elon will want to beat a few of those specs.