TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RobStark]

1 year of "delaying optional purchases" was all that was needed to trigger GM's bankruptcy:

In 2007 GM had about 4M-5M units of overcapacity and no rainy day fund.

Today GM has about 1.2M units of overcapacity, is closing 5 factories to eliminate their overcapacity in money losing sedans, sold off their perpetually money losing European unit and has about a $30B rainy day fund.

FCAU is orders of magnitude better off than the 2 parents in 2007.

That doesn't mean a severe enough recession can't bankrupt GM or FCAU or Ford but they are better off. Ford is in about the same cash and competitive position but is not in debt up to its eyeballs. Just up to its waist.

 

[Fact Checking]

No, it is stupid.

If you believe that the ICE makers need to transition to be relevant - but they don't - how is it not being stupid ? Obviously it is better for your customers to buy your own EV than switch to a different manufacturer.

That's a false dichotomy, executives at ICE carmakers have (or at least see) a handful of choices:

1. successful transition to battery based EVs
2. unsuccessful transition to battery based EVs
3. letting the ICE profits flow until they are still good - EV manufacturing is still minuscule and will be for another 3-5 years. Where is the current board and the C-suite executives going to be in 3-5 years? Many of them will be in retirement, with a golden parachute and a couple of million dollars of income from those 3-5 good years left ... Why risk #2 if you can cash out? "Nobody ever got fired for continuing to build ICE cars" is probably a thing.
   
4. hoping for something better than battery based EVs being invented in those 3-5 years: solid state batteries, hydrogen - and investing in those technologies early on to get a patent or supplier monopoly on the technology.

Note that #2 (unsuccessful transition to battery based EVs) is an accelerated version of #3 (selling ICE cars until the selling is good), so if you are uncertain about being able to master #1 it's entirely rational to go #3-#4.

 

[Etna]

Primary source of range loss is from cold is from aero drag.

That seems unlikely. For example, a car moving at 60 mph at -22°F has only 13% more drag than at 86°F, and at that speed the rolling resistance is still about twice the drag (for a low Cd car) so you're probably dealing with a 6% loss at most due to colder air drag between these two extreme temperatures.

 

[JRP3]

WEEKEND OFF-PLANET: "How to Terraform Mars"

Does Mars have a strong enough magnetic field to sustain an earth like atmosphere?

 

[EVNow]

OT :

That seems unlikely. For example, a car moving at 60 mph at -22°F has only 13% more drag than at 86°F, and at that speed the rolling resistance is still about twice the drag (for a low Cd car) so you're probably dealing with a 6% loss at most due to colder air drag between these two extreme temperatures.

Don't know about OP - but in winter one reason for lower range is snow/rain. That increases rolling resistance quite a bit. Yes, its not the aero drag.

 

[EVNow]

That's a false dichotomy, executives at ICE carmakers have (or at least see) a handful of choices:

You are basically saying that ignoring their fiduciary duties and running the companies to ground is not stupid. It might make narrow personal sense to the executives - but obviously from the company as a going concern POV, that is stupid.

BTW, to get back to the original point, I'm saying it makes more sense to make & sell EV versions of popular models than to spend a lot of money making special EVs that don't sell much (i3 for eg).

 

[CorneliusXX]

And that happened in a very accommodating rate environment, with the Fed interest rate at zero. Today rates are a lot higher and there's more uncertainty regarding their future trajectory.

That happened in the most severe liquidity event in a century which was almost infinitely more uncertain than today. In 2008 none of the banks knew who was safe, none knew which bonds were tainted by poor underwriting standards and none knew how far the government would go to backstop liquidity. Today is far more certain.....even with the OI in charge. A large portion of the drop in sales would have been due to lack of credit availability and high unemployment.

Slightly higher interest rates is a sign of strong economic growth and full employment - these are positives when it comes to lending.

 

[JRP3]

Does Mars have a strong enough magnetic field to sustain an earth like atmosphere?

I guess it might Mars’ magnetic field - DTU Space

Despite the fact that Mars no longer has an internal dynamo capable of generating a large global magnetic field as on Earth, there is evidence to suggest that Mars may once have had such a dynamo. This is mainly supported by observations from the American satellite mission MGS (Mars Global Surveyor), which from 1997 to 2006 measured the magnetic field of Mars using a small magnetometer from an altitude of 100-400 km above the planet’s surface. These measurements showed the existence of powerful magnetic crustal fields on the planet’s surface, far more powerful than those found on Earth.

The presence of these crustal fields gives rise to local mini-magnetospheres, i.e. small areas where the lines of the magnetic field locally protect the planet surface from electrically charged particles. Mini-magnetospheres occur when a magnetic field line is connected to two different points on the Martian surface, thus creating a kind of bubble. Between these ‘bubbles’, one end of the magnetic field lines can be connected to the planet and the other to the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

If these mini-magnetospheres are sufficiently powerful and reach high enough above the Martian surface, they can disturb the boundaries within the planet’s global magnetic field, thus affecting the interaction between the solar wind and the atmosphere, and this may help to protect what is left of Mars’ weak atmosphere.

 

[RobStark]

 

[avoigt]

Thats a change.

I just have seen the first time ever at prime time in the German television at the large broadcasters an ad from VW about the ID and half an hour later an ad from Audi about the e-tron. Audis ads are also visible at the ski downhill tournament in the alps at the starting booth.

That looks like they get more serious now and really try to sell their cars at least try to change peoples perception.

Thats great news and I am pleased to see that they move beyond the compliance car status. At least there is some decent effort to create demand otherwise they would not put large marketing budgets behind it. Those ads at prime time are expensive.

Here come the fun part: The VW ID ad talks all the time about what cars will be able to do in the future and lists different part of that like leaving a parking lot remotely.You see the ID concept in the ad.

All what they talked about the entire ad through an ID will be able to do in the future is what a Tesla can do already today.

Really funny...

 

[RobStark]

Burly 7'2" (2.18 meters) dude sits inside Model 3. Both front seats and a rear seat.

 

[Fact Checking]

Weekend OT:

Does Mars have a strong enough magnetic field to sustain an earth like atmosphere?

It doesn't matter: atmosphere is lost to solar wind only over geological timescales - tens of millions of years. If we can terraform Mars within thousands of years, we can keep the atmosphere replenished as well.

Also, if we are thinking "thousands of years" then a superconducting ring along the equator, generating a weak magnetic field, is probably within the technological capabilities of future humanity.

So it's very likely a non-issue.

 

[Unpilot]

Weekend OT:



It doesn't matter: atmosphere is lost to solar wind only over geological timescales - tens of millions of years. If we can terraform Mars within thousands of years, we can keep the atmosphere replenished as well.

Also, if we are thinking "thousands of years" then a superconducting ring along the equator, generating a weak magnetic field, is probably within the technological capabilities of future humanity.

So it's very likely a non-issue.

Better not stop taking your vitamins.

 

[KarenRei]

My 6'8" / 203cm brother-in-law was with me on my test drive today (he test drove also). Even in the back seat his head didn't touch the glass.

Tesla has a limited number of models, ao obviously it's very important that they appeal to as wide of a range of people as possible.

 

[Fact Checking]

That happened in the most severe liquidity event in a century which was almost infinitely more uncertain than today. In 2008 none of the banks knew who was safe, none knew which bonds were tainted by poor underwriting standards and none knew how far the government would go to backstop liquidity.

The liquidity crisis of 2008-2009 affected interbank lending primarily - consumer loans weren't affected nearly as much, plus there were generous government programs in place to keep consumer loans going.

The problem was, many people didn't want to take on debt and didn't want to buy cars, due to the economic uncertainty.

Now there's not only economic uncertainty and a stock market crash, but also uncertainty about the future of ICE cars. Average ownership is over 7 years - and more and more people might think twice before making a 7 year long $50k+ investment. Why not wait a year or two, to see where things are going?

It doesn't take much reduction in demand to disrupt the investment cycle of ICE carmakers.

That's the one thing ICE carmakers don't have full control over: consumer demand and behavior.

 

[Fact Checking]

My 6'8" / 203cm brother-in-law was with me on my test drive today (he test drove also). Even in the back seat his head didn't touch the glass.

Tesla has a limited number of models, ao obviously it's very important that they appeal to as wide of a range of people as possible.

It also helps that Elon is a tall guy with 5 kids.

 

[hobbes]

Thats a change.

I just have seen the first time ever at prime time in the German television at the large broadcasters an ad from VW about the ID and half an hour later an ad from Audi about the e-tron. Audis ads are also visible at the ski downhill tournament in the alps at the starting booth.

That looks like they get more serious now and really try to sell their cars at least try to change peoples perception.

Thats great news and I am pleased to see that they move beyond the compliance car status. At least there is some decent effort to create demand otherwise they would not put large marketing budgets behind it. Those ads at prime time are expensive.

Here come the fun part: The VW ID ad talks all the time about what cars will be able to do in the future and lists different part of that like leaving a parking lot remotely.You see the ID concept in the ad.

All what they talked about the entire ad through an ID will be able to do in the future is what a Tesla can do already today.

Really funny...

Other funny/half hearted EV ad in German public radio: Ad talks about things will change in the near future, ending with Smart cars will be all electric soon. But only to end the thing with promoting good deals on ICE smarts as long as you can still get them ...

Agree with your post, much more visibility of EVs in ads is starting.

 

[hobbes]

Plotted Model 3 invoice number (obviously sequential) vs order time based on posts from German forum TFF -
yesterday (1st day of config) about 750, today about 250. Hope people will keep posting this...

 

[winfield100]

VW ID first drive:

Shape of the car looks like a mini mpv. There will only be one "sensible" version. There will not be anything sexy about it, no performance version, no good looks, no fun features. Battery supply is sorted says a confident german. Price will be the same as a diesel golf says the same german.

A decent VW electric should sway more people into considering an electric car. It will be interesting to see how many will still want to buy a Golf when this becomes available. Maybe VW is shooting themself in the foot by introducing a oddly designed no frills electric instead of just making their bread and butter Golf electric and selling it at a decent price. A Tesla Model 3 looks a lot more desirable compared to this ID.

How about a Tesla skateboard with a VW bus chassis, or an Excalibur or a dymaxion or .......

 

[AndyH]

Weekend OT:



It doesn't matter: atmosphere is lost to solar wind only over geological timescales - tens of millions of years. If we can terraform Mars within thousands of years, we can keep the atmosphere replenished as well.

Also, if we are thinking "thousands of years" then a superconducting ring along the equator, generating a weak magnetic field, is probably within the technological capabilities of future humanity.

So it's very likely a non-issue.

If you just want protection from solar wind the magnetic field doesn't have to be big since you can place it at the lagrange point between Mars and the sun. It will still need to be one mighty magnet though: Giving Mars a Magnetosphere – Our Space – Medium