TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[M3Rider]

OT



Seriously, what is up with this denialism?

It doesn't make sense from a physics standpoint why it would stop at 68%. The air keeps getting denser, and the climate control draw keeps getting higher. Primary source of range loss is from cold is from aero drag. Not only that, but the scenario you proposed above of very very long drives getting more efficient doesn't even hold up - since the acquisition of CAN bus reader I can tell the drivetrain waste heat becomes insufficient to drive the pack to optimal range temperature (~42C) under certain ambient temperatures.

And I will repeat again, I have confirmed my energy usage experience with MULTIPLE loaners. My car is not unfamiliar with the inside of a Tesla shop. If 2 years of hard data and multiple anecdotal information is not good enough, maybe watch some of TeslaBjorn's videos where he documents his reported usage.

Frankly, if there's something "wrong" with my car and a subtle enough way to affect range ONLY in the cold like this, then Tesla software should have already detected and alerted over the situation.

But, my car is fine.

There's tweet from EM talking about losses in cold weather-
Elon Musk on Twitter

I was concerned myself as we didn't really have cold temperatures in CO yet and today for the first time I drove to ski to the mountains. From elevation 5.4k feet to 11k. 81 miles away. From ~40F to 16F in the mountains. I charged to 300 miles and was really worried as I was driving to destination b/c remaining range was dropping quickly as I was getting close. Most of the way I drove high speed 65-75mph(traffic speed), but road conditions got bad up in the mountaints and traffic slowed, so I turned off heat sometimes to save energy as I didn't know how long I'd sit in traffic. The drive took over 2 hours w/ the jam. When I parked I had 185 miles left.(i.e. 115 spent for 81) So, the car sat 6 hours in 16F. When I got back in, it showed 175 miles left. But, going back downhill it hardly used the range. When I got home, I had 120 left.
I.e. 180 spent for 162 miles round trip w/ cold weather. I was pretty impressed considering the extra heating. And did not see much deviation from what EM said. Maybe in colder temperatures. M3 AWD.

 

[S3XY]

Indeed Handles beautifully.

Good to hear. I know they were giving you grief over insurance.

 

[Beltsbear]

Does Mars have a strong enough magnetic field to sustain an earth like atmosphere?

No. But if we put one there it would take a million years to blow away. Considering we could make one in 100 years that’s not too bad.

 

[Xpert]

Now with panel gaps no longer an issue, another huge problem has just emerged. Tesla might need to rethink their car external design to better serve these typical users...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah I could see that. I think Teslarati jumped the gun on this one. The video is more a generic view of their port/facilities, but Teslarati think it is the first big Model 3 shipment.

Or test drive units + some early Xmas deliveries? Never know with Elon...

 

[RobStark]

Would be nice if GM could then pay back the 11.2 billion to us taxpayers (with interest).

Trump says GM should repay U.S. taxpayers for bailout

It would be nice if car companies could make the cars they see fit to make and how they wish to make them without millions of pages of government regulation.

And then fail or succeed in the market place without government intervention.

But we don't live in that world.

 

[loco]

Audis ads are also visible at the ski downhill tournament in the alps at the starting booth.

This is from Campiglio, where FIS World Cup round was yesterday. They also had an actual E-Tron on display. Previous years it was all „quattro” branding, this year it’s only e-tron.

 

[Fact Checking]

It would be nice if car companies could make the cars they see fit to make and how they wish to make them without millions of pages of government regulation.

The car industry fought regulations tooth and nail:

• They invented putting lead into gasoline to reduce ICE engine wear and then opposed regulation that would mandate lead free gasoline (!). Their tactics delayed the removal of lead from gasoline for decades, with disastrous consequences: "Lead: the hidden villain behind violent crime, lower IQs, and even the ADHD epidemic".
• The car industry bought out and then killed many city mass transportation companies, to prevent the creation of effective local public transportation in the U.S.: "General Motors streetcar conspiracy."
• 
  
• The car industry killed the first attempt at an EV, the EV1:
• 
  
• The car industry fought safety regulations with unscrupulous tactics: "Unsafe at any speed".
• They fought seat belt regulations. The car industry prevented air bag regulations: ""Top Ford Motor Company executives went so far as to arrange a meeting with President Nixon to plead against a federal regulation that would have required air bags in all cars, starting with 1973 models. The meeting had the desired effect: Mr. Nixon ordered the regulation quashed. Eleven years after the 1971 meeting, a transcript from secret Oval Office tapes disclosed the conversation." This anti-regulatory act of the car industry probably cost tens of thousands of lives in the U.S. alone.
• Even when compelled by regulation, the car industry committed diesel emissions fraud for over a decade, with "defeat devices" that would detect emission tests and fake lower emissions. When caught they lied about the true extent of the fraud, for years. They destroyed evidence and tried to use their political influence to stop or delay the investigations.

And that's just the shenanigans we learned about ...

And then fail or succeed in the market place without government intervention.

But we don't live in that world.

The U.S. actually had very little effective car industry regulation for the first ~70 years of the 20th century - and the sad reality of that lassies-fair regulatory policy was that the only things that lived or died on the market without efficient government intervention were not car companies but actual human beings - millions of dead people globally.

Car industry self-regulation: thanks but no thanks. I'd rather have a million pages of regulation than a million tons of lead in the air and soil...

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 363214

Okay, NOW I understand the Tesla Model 3 feeling. Thanks for demonstrating!

CHE3RS!

 

[CorneliusXX]

The problem was, many people didn't want to take on debt and didn't want to buy cars, due to the economic uncertainty.

The current economy is nothing like 2008. 2008 had unemployment running at over 10% and genuine uncertainty around bank solvency. There is no comparison between the current economy and 2008. We will have future recessions bet even then they are unlikely to be as large as 2008.

There were people who didn't want loans but also many who couldn't get loans. They were then unemployed, or had a home loan that suddenly jumped in rate and had no cash to get a loan. Underwriting standards were also increased and banks weren't offering sub-prime loans on autos.

GM's financing arm also went broke as did many others. This caused disruption in the market. It is unreasonable to say there was a 50% reduction in purchases because people simply didn't want the vehicles. There were significant reductions in the availability of credit combined with high uncertainty around the economy and poor personal financial situations. The current economy has full employment and more robust financial systems.

To link this back to the change to EVs. If the economy is strong we will continue to see people wanting vehicles during the transition and we will likely see some customers delaying purchases of ICE vehicles, however it is incredibly unlikely to be 50% of the market. If people have employment and credit is available they will mostly still purchase an ICE vehicle while they wait for EVs to be available in the quantities needed for them to purchase. the utility of a vehicle is high and most people won't forego that when there is an easy solution. You need a heavy recession for the drop in demand to be so severe.

 

[saniflash]

The current economy is nothing like 2008. 2008 had unemployment running at over 10% and genuine uncertainty around bank solvency. There is no comparison between the current economy and 2008. We will have future recessions bet even then they are unlikely to be as large as 2008.

I totally agree; the problem alone is that you can also talk an economy into recession, i.e., the fearmongering and sensationalist reporting about the markets heading for a recession can IMHO cause one.... self-fulfilling prophecy...

the only thing that's sure: we won't be bored during the next months.

 

[Fact Checking]

The current economy is nothing like 2008. 2008 had unemployment running at over 10% and genuine uncertainty around bank solvency. There is no comparison between the current economy and 2008. We will have future recessions bet even then they are unlikely to be as large as 2008.

That's true, but there's these additional factors you keep not acknowledging:

• There is now growing uncertainty about the future of ICE cars specifically - which existential uncertainty didn't exist back in 2008-2009. That gives extra reason for people to not invest ~$40k+ into an asset they expect to be using for over 7 years.
• In 2008-2009 every knew that this is a recession and that the drop in demand was temporary. Transition of customers to EVs is permanent in over 90% of the cases.
  
• There's a significantly higher and more uncertain interest rate environment today than in 2008-2009. Financing is more expensive and will probably get more expensive in the future. With over 70% of new car purchases financed this is is a significant factor.

Is the sum of these two factors as large as the economic uncertainty in 2008? Certainly not yet, we'd be seeing ICE car sales plummet otherwise.

My point is, it's a fundamentally volatile scenario, the moment ICE carmakers start the transition and start selling EVs for real they might set off a chain reaction of customer behavior they don't have control over: they'll start waiting for EVs, defer buying a new ICE car, or buy a used ICE car.

If we look at historic examples, transitions in demand for new technologies tend to be very, very quick:

Literally every transition there shifted demand by about 5% per year - 10% in the peak years. While those products had faster replacement cycles, this is counter-acted by the fact that new car purchases can realistically be delayed by 3-5 years, while for example an old smartphone becomes too painful to use with contemporary software after 2 years already.

The other problem is, premium sales are lost first, which tend to have the highest profit margin content. So in terms of lost cash flow, the first 20% of lost sales could be the most damaging, wiping out most of the positive cash flow - leaving very little to invest into the EV transition ...

This isn't hypothethical at all - U.S. sales of the BMW 3-series effectively collapsed in 2018:

BMW 3-series US car sales figures​

I believe one of the main forces behind that is competition from the Model 3: November 2018 sales were only 3,218 units versus 6,181 units in November 2017.

I think there are many companies in the ICE industry that will get into serious trouble after losing 5-10% of their most lucrative sales in a single year, permanently.

 

[RobStark]

.

Car industry self-regulation: thanks but no thanks. I'd rather have a million pages of regulation than a million tons of lead in the air and soil...

Million pages of regulation thanks but no thanks.

I would rather have free people make informed decisions.

IF Ford wants to make cool unsafe cars let them.

IF Volvo wants to make uncool safe cars let them.

Publish safety, vehicle death etc data.

Charge a pollution tax so cost aren't transferred to the public square.

Charge a War tax on gasoline/diesel that pays to protect the free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf and through the Suez Canal.

Let consumers buy what they wish.

When a company goes bankrupt let them die.

When people have good information with the correct price signals they make better decisions.


BTW It is millions of pages of regulations that is keeping Elon from

selling Teslas in Michigan, South Carolina, and New Mexico.

replacing side mirrors with much more effective,safer,and efficient rear view cameras.

and will likely keep safer autonomous vehicles or AV systems from the public for years and maybe decades.

 

[RobStark]

This isn't hypothethical at all - U.S. sales of the BMW 3-series effectively collapsed in 2018:

BMW 3-series US car sales figures​

I believe one of the main forces behind that is competition from the Model 3: November 2018 sales were only 3,218 units versus 6,181 units in November 2017.

I.

Or more likely it is a combination of BMW owners deferring a 2018 BMW 3 Series purchase to a all new 2019 BMW 3 Series purchase.

Or they switched to an SUV/CUV like the X3 or X5.

No doubt Model 3 is taking some sales from BMW 3 Series but it appears it is taking more sales from Lexus,Toyota, Honda, and Acura. And LEAF.

Model X isn't causing a collapse in midsize luxury SUV sales.

 

[gora321]

Thats interesting.

Sample rate for Troys modeling is falling significantly and with it I predict the accuracy. Not saying right or wrong but having less data points increases the risks of less accuracy.


55m55 minutes ago
The explanation that I think is most likely is that the trackers are underestimating production. We can see that the sample rate has been falling for @TroyTeslike's spreadsheet. This is to be expected as the marginal M3 buyer is less connected with Tesla social media. /11

51m51 minutes ago
If we look at the VIN data, we will also see that the production estimated by the models might be too low. Based on the same VIN efficiency as Q3, we should be looking at around 62k produced. /12

48m48 minutes ago
In summary, the Bloomberg and Troy trackers have shown accuracy in the past, but they do not match up with qualitative factors. My estimation is 62k produced and 66k delivered for Q4. /end

ThreeFives Investments on Twitter

I fully agree on that! This thought occupied my mind several months ago when I predicted that % of VIN reported by customers will decrease by the time. While we still have Innovators and Early adopters among buyers, the Early majority is increasing. They are different type of buyers. They are buying on logic, proven facts, own experience...They probably do not fight for Tesla as we do.. just using Tesla technology because it is superior. They do not care for any reporting. Both trackers don't include this change because you can't identify % of VIN reports as a curve through the time.

IMHO VIN registration has become most important and solid indicator for production/sale. We are now on 72,048 for Q4. I also enjoy on inside reports of breaking the production records.

I think that we will be surprised too with Q4 not only bears.

 

[Tslynk67]

It would be nice if car companies could make the cars they see fit to make and how they wish to make them without millions of pages of government regulation.

And then fail or succeed in the market place without government intervention.

But we don't live in that world.

I'd be OK with this if the fossil-fuel subsidies were removed. At least in Belgium, and I suspect many other European countries, cars are taxed primarily on their CO2 emissions, I think with an element of the engine power included. It's not perfect at is doesn't take into account the NO emissions, but these are now beginning to be dealt with, tangentially, buy the banning of older cars from many city-centres.

 

[Fact Checking]

I would rather have free people make informed decisions.

Unregulated markets start monopolizing almost instantly, which robs people of "free choice". Unregulated companies also lie and mislead routinely, which robs people of "informed choice".

Exactly how would unregulated markets avoid negative externalities like lead poisoning? There's still tens of thousands of tons of lead contaminating the soil of inner cities, with nobody liable for cleanup. Statute of limitations long passed, the culprits gone. Children get exposed to that lead even today. How do "informed decisions" help there?

I linked to numerous examples of horrendous abuse by the car industry, which cost numerous lives. We cannot just ignore that track record of lack of regulation and parrot libertarian dogma mindlessly.

Even Adam Smith, author of "Wealth of Nations", who coined the "invisible hand" of the markets, acknowledged it over 200 years ago:

"People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices."​

In practice the main "free" thing about unregulated markets is "free of consequences". Without regulations and enforcement human lives become litigation costs, balanced against the costs of a recall and redesign. Bad reputation becomes a PR and marketing cost.

In practice the "free" markets sought by libertarians are as elusive fantasies as the "unselfish" societies sought by communists.

 

[Fact Checking]

I fully agree on that! This thought occupied my mind several months ago when I predicted that % of VIN reported by customers will decrease by the time. While we still have Innovators and Early adopters among buyers, the Early majority is increasing. They are different type of buyers.

In addition to that, with Tesla speeding up deliveries there's simply much less time to register the VIN of the car you are waiting for.

Even for Tesla enthusiasts, the main time period to register is while the car is not delivered yet - which helps determine the estimated waiting time. Once delivered there's much less motivation to register.

 

[lklundin]

I stand corrected. Can't believe TSLA is back down to 320. Ironically when it hit +370 a week back I was not thinking of selling in the least, I was thinking "I've got to buy more",

Me too, except I had little buying pow(d)er.

But if I had had to consider two possibilities, one that in one week the SP would go down to 320 and another, that it would go up to 420, I would have considered them equally (un)likely...

PS. There is a Boring Company Not-a-Flamethrower cameo in the much debated "NASA-nerd's revenge over the Porch Pirates":

- clearly recognizable after 8m15s

 

[avoigt]

VW ID first drive:

Shape of the car looks like a mini mpv. There will only be one "sensible" version. There will not be anything sexy about it, no performance version, no good looks, no fun features. Battery supply is sorted says a confident german. Price will be the same as a diesel golf says the same german.

A decent VW electric should sway more people into considering an electric car. It will be interesting to see how many will still want to buy a Golf when this becomes available. Maybe VW is shooting themself in the foot by introducing a oddly designed no frills electric instead of just making their bread and butter Golf electric and selling it at a decent price. A Tesla Model 3 looks a lot more desirable compared to this ID.

I was about to write a pro and con post but this twitter post does summarize nicely what I was thinking.


TeslaOptimist‏ @TeslaOptimist
VW ID 2020 specs released: 0-62 mph in ~9 seconds. Top speed will be limited to 99 mph. Two range options - 206 miles and 312 miles. Both have DC charging speeds of “up to 125 kW.” So these #TeslaKillers will have worse specs in 2020+ than Model 3 has today. $TSLA

I like the charging rate and that it will be affordable. Its still a development model so although the claim to have driving assist systems, over the air updates a.o. talk is cheap and VW does not have a positive track record to fulfill promises really.

All other specs and points are really falling behind what Tesla did years ago and if you subtract overpromising then it looks grim.

If the SR with affordable price comes out I ask myself why you would buy the VW? Maybe because its a VW or because you dislike the interior of the 3 e.g. Display but beside of that I wonder how this product can attract millions of consumers.

The only feasible way I do see is to be around €10k lower in price than Tesla with the lowest 3 variant. Making the math that would mean more losses for VW and they have tight margin already if any on the early I.D.s.