TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

To link this back to the change to EVs. If the economy is strong we will continue to see people wanting vehicles during the transition and we will likely see some customers delaying purchases of ICE vehicles, however it is incredibly unlikely to be 50% of the market.

It will be 100% of demand transitioning to EVs.

The "only" question is the rate of change, and I submit that people have the option to significantly delay the purchase of their next car - and that today it's already probable that a very significant percentage of customers won't buy an ICE car, ever again.

The question is: is it 1%, 5%, 10% or 30%?

Or more likely it is a combination of BMW owners deferring a 2018 BMW 3 Series purchase to a all new 2019 BMW 3 Series purchase.

Or they switched to an SUV/CUV like the X3 or X5.

No doubt Model 3 is taking some sales from BMW 3 Series but it appears it is taking more sales from Lexus,Toyota, Honda, and Acura. And LEAF.

Model X isn't causing a collapse in midsize luxury SUV sales.

True, but I don't think the Model X is necessarily a valid example, SUVs are growth markets, which might be masking many of the countering trends.

 

[Fact Checking]

That's true, but there's these additional factors you keep not acknowledging:

@CorneliusXX:
Too late to edit my reply but that was unwarranted, got carried away with the argument there, my apologies. Your arguments are entirely reasonable and I agree with everything you wrote about 2008-2009 - it was different and in many ways worse than today's environment.

I do think there are car industry specific risks today, but the magnitude of them is hard to quantify.

I'd also add an additional counter-argument against my own points: 2008-2009 car OEM bankruptcies were all about their inability to react to fast drop in demand. It seems unlikely that just 10 years later they wouldn't be significantly more resilient against a similar scenario - and you cited a few aspects that make it less likely.

The same kind of recession rarely repeats, partly because institutions and market participants are much more aware of the reasons of the last recession. It's the drivers of recessions long ago that tend to get cleared from institutional memory ...

So I agree with you in two points: same magnitude of drop of demand is very unlikely today, and the car industry is probably also more prepared to intelligently react to lack of demand than in 2008-2009. This is probably going to make the EV transition a rather interesting and possibly protracted affair ...

 

[Fact Checking]

TeslaOptimist‏ @TeslaOptimist
VW ID 2020 specs released: 0-62 mph in ~9 seconds. Top speed will be limited to 99 mph. Two range options - 206 miles and 312 miles. Both have DC charging speeds of “up to 125 kW.” So these #TeslaKillers will have worse specs in 2020+ than Model 3 has today. $TSLA

Also note that VW cited WLTP range standards which are obsolete even today. EPA ranges are 30-40% lower - so the real I.D. range is probably 120-140 miles and 190-220 miles.

I believe the only thing the I.D. is going to compete on is entry price and the smaller form factor, as Tesla is unlikely to be offering a Model 3 variant with just 130 miles of range. The Standard Range Model 3 might even beat the higher specced VW I.D. on price, while offering similar or higher (220 miles) EPA range.

 

[Fact Checking]

You are basically saying that ignoring their fiduciary duties and running the companies to ground is not stupid. It might make narrow personal sense to the executives - but obviously from the company as a going concern POV, that is stupid.

Note that "fiduciary duties" are interpreted pretty narrowly when it comes to running public companies, because shareholders always have the option to overrule executives and there's usually annual shareholder meetings where shareholders can exercise their control over the company if they disagree with the direction.

BTW, to get back to the original point, I'm saying it makes more sense to make & sell EV versions of popular models than to spend a lot of money making special EVs that don't sell much (i3 for eg).

The problem is, there's no such thing as 'EV versions of popular models', in reality Teslas only look like regular cars, there's surprisingly little technology overlap. An ICE car has thousands of moving parts, a Tesla less than a few dozen, including doors, windows and motorized seats.

You cannot just 'convert' an ICE factory to making EVs. What you have to do is to build entirely new factories, using a technology that is in large part alien to you.

No wonder ICE carmakers are not rushing to do this - they are used to building out maybe 5% of new capacity per year and 'transition' their factories after a good 10 years of draining all the profits from existing production lines.

The EV transition is disrupting those capital expenditure practices and plans, and I question whether many of the car OEMs are actually financially able to perform this transition - or are already set on a path of steady decline.

 

[HG Wells]

To: Boss Short

I have a really HUGE idea, to lower sales of the Model 3 in Europe.

We get people to refer to the model 3 as the TRUMP CAR.

Make owning anything made in America, a true embarrassment.

Can definitely cut sales and keep the price of the stock down by 10 or 20 points.

Would you buy a TRUMP car ?

Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[NicoV]

I was about to write a pro and con post but this twitter post does summarize nicely what I was thinking.


TeslaOptimist‏ @TeslaOptimist
VW ID 2020 specs released: 0-62 mph in ~9 seconds. Top speed will be limited to 99 mph. Two range options - 206 miles and 312 miles. Both have DC charging speeds of “up to 125 kW.” So these #TeslaKillers will have worse specs in 2020+ than Model 3 has today. $TSLA

I like the charging rate and that it will be affordable. Its still a development model so although the claim to have driving assist systems, over the air updates a.o. talk is cheap and VW does not have a positive track record to fulfill promises really.

All other specs and points are really falling behind what Tesla did years ago and if you subtract overpromising then it looks grim.

If the SR with affordable price comes out I ask myself why you would buy the VW? Maybe because its a VW or because you dislike the interior of the 3 e.g. Display but beside of that I wonder how this product can attract millions of consumers.

The only feasible way I do see is to be around €10k lower in price than Tesla with the lowest 3 variant. Making the math that would mean more losses for VW and they have tight margin already if any on the early I.D.s.

Elon has talked about releasing a compact car around 2020. That will be the real competition of the VW ID, and I fear (for VW) that the result won’t be pretty.

 

[JRP3]

I would rather have free people make informed decisions.

People are often short sighted and mostly uninformed.

 

[JRP3]

Also note that VW cited WLTP range standards which are obsolete even today. EPA ranges are 30-40% lower -

I thought WLTP was more accurate than the old NEDC and closer to EPA?

 

[sweter]

I was about to write a pro and con post but this twitter post does summarize nicely what I was thinking.


TeslaOptimist‏ @TeslaOptimist
VW ID 2020 specs released: 0-62 mph in ~9 seconds. Top speed will be limited to 99 mph. Two range options - 206 miles and 312 miles. Both have DC charging speeds of “up to 125 kW.” So these #TeslaKillers will have worse specs in 2020+ than Model 3 has today. $TSLA

I like the charging rate and that it will be affordable. Its still a development model so although the claim to have driving assist systems, over the air updates a.o. talk is cheap and VW does not have a positive track record to fulfill promises really.

All other specs and points are really falling behind what Tesla did years ago and if you subtract overpromising then it looks grim.

If the SR with affordable price comes out I ask myself why you would buy the VW? Maybe because its a VW or because you dislike the interior of the 3 e.g. Display but beside of that I wonder how this product can attract millions of consumers.

The only feasible way I do see is to be around €10k lower in price than Tesla with the lowest 3 variant. Making the math that would mean more losses for VW and they have tight margin already if any on the early I.D.s.

€10k makes a huge difference to many buyers (actually make it €15k as European SR is estimated to be ~€40k).
0-60 time does not make any difference to many buyers.
Top speed does not make any difference to many buyers.
206 miles is plenty for many buyers.

I expect this car to have a lot of success, especially in Europe. I might even consider it my second car if the final look is nice (although I'm still waiting for viable electric Mini, convertible ideally).

There are dozens of nicer cars than Fiat Panda (even in the same bracket) and yet it sold 187,049 units in Europe in 2017.

No, it won't be a #TeslaKiller, but it won't do bad either. And that's good for everyone.

Also note that VW cited WLTP range standards which are obsolete even today. EPA ranges are 30-40% lower - so the real I.D. range is probably 120-140 miles and 190-220 miles.

EPA Model 3 LR is 310 miles = 499 km
WLTP Model 3 LR is 544 km = 338 miles

WLTP is higher by 9% and we know that Tesla lowered their EPA range on purpose and people have been getting 330+ miles in their Model 3's. In this case WLTP is pretty accurate. Are you maybe confusing WLTP with older NEDC standard which indeed was horrendous?

And OT:

Now with panel gaps no longer an issue, another huge problem has just emerged. Tesla might need to rethink their car external design to better serve these typical users...

This video has been EVERYWHERE recently, but I'm 90% convinced this is a prank / fake.

 

[winfield100]

Video published on YouTube Dec 8, 2017.

Original article pulished on PopSci website June 24, 2017:

So, you want to terraform Mars? Here's one way to do it.

Cheers!

Ok. The spacesuits are reminiscent of the 1950’s ones I disremember foggily. The timelines are way too slow. 100,000 years!
But this is a bit OT.
They should have interviewed a bunch of science fiction nerds and writers first, especially old fartz and younguns

 

[winfield100]

Video published on YouTube Dec 8, 2017.
Original article pulished on PopSci website June 24, 2017:
So, you want to terraform Mars? Here's one way to do it.
Cheers!

More OT
Far better quality and similar but different

 

[avoigt]

4 Minutes ago I have seen that the e-tron is on display in the Munich airport.

After security Terminal 2 at the duty free area.

Nice car.... too bad about range and efficiency.

 

[neroden]

You are basically saying that ignoring their fiduciary duties and running the companies to ground is not stupid. It might make narrow personal sense to the executives - but obviously from the company as a going concern POV, that is stupid.

The conflict between the interests of the execs and the interests of the company has been a big issue for most of the history of corporations. This conflict of interest is quite severe in pretty much every US company, and one of the major problems for minority stockholders.

At least at Tesla, the CEO and the company share an overriding *mission*, which reduces the conflict of interest substantially.

 

[Hock1]

Thats interesting.

Sample rate for Troys modeling is falling significantly and with it I predict the accuracy. Not saying right or wrong but having less data points increases the risks of less accuracy.


55m55 minutes ago
The explanation that I think is most likely is that the trackers are underestimating production. We can see that the sample rate has been falling for @TroyTeslike's spreadsheet. This is to be expected as the marginal M3 buyer is less connected with Tesla social media. /11

51m51 minutes ago
If we look at the VIN data, we will also see that the production estimated by the models might be too low. Based on the same VIN efficiency as Q3, we should be looking at around 62k produced. /12

48m48 minutes ago
In summary, the Bloomberg and Troy trackers have shown accuracy in the past, but they do not match up with qualitative factors. My estimation is 62k produced and 66k delivered for Q4. /end

ThreeFives Investments on Twitter

Q4= 100,000 cars delivered------71K, Model 3, 29K Models S and X

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon has talked about releasing a compact car around 2020. That will be the real competition of the VW ID, and I fear (for VW) that the result won’t be pretty.

No the Tesla Compact Car will not be released by 2020, but aspirationally within 5 years (2023) before allowing for "Elon time".

Here's Elon's source quote: (from the 2018 AGM, Elon brief answer to this question)

Audience Question: "I wanted to ask is there going to be a time, you know, perhaps in the next few years, and Tesla's going to produce compact and/or subcompact vehicles. Such a huge segment, and it seems like that would be necessary to fulfill the Master Plan - Part Deux mandate."

Elon Musk: "Yeah, I think we'll do a compact car in less than five years. Yeah."​

This question was the first one asked in this Q&A Session from the June 2018 AGM:

My take on this is it's a shot across the bow to VW et.al: Either get some quality small EVs on the market within 5 years, or Tesla will move down into that Market too and eat your lunch.

They have been warned.

Cheers!

 

[neroden]

OT

It would be nice if car companies could make the cars they see fit to make and how they wish to make them without millions of pages of government regulation.

And then fail or succeed in the market place without government intervention.

But we don't live in that world.

The epidemic of deaths in and around cars led to the government regulation.

National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act - Wikipedia
Drunk driving in the United States - Wikipedia
Tetraethyllead - Wikipedia

I'm glad we don't live in the unregulated world. It would be nice if we could make the regulations shorter and sweeter, and with current technology we probably can. For instance, nowadays we could simplify a lot of the regulations to:
-- no driving with any detectable alcohol level in your blood
-- no fuel-burning cars at all
-- cars must have sensors to detect things in front of them and must safely stop rather than crashing into things

 

[scaesare]

Last week showed that Tesla keeps investing in charging stations worldwide: in 7 days they opened 18 new 120 kW supercharger stations with 148 stalls and 3 new 72 kW stations with 58 stalls.

Wow... almost 30 stalls per day...

 

[Vitold]

No the Tesla Compact Car will not be released by 2020, but aspirationally within 5 years (2023) before allowing for "Elon time".

Here's Elon's source quote: (from the 2018 AGM, Elon brief answer to this question)

Audience Question: "I wanted to ask is there going to be a time, you know, perhaps in the next few years, and Tesla's going to produce compact and/or subcompact vehicles. Such a huge segment, and it seems like that would be necessary to fulfill the Master Plan - Part Deux mandate."

Elon Musk: "Yeah, I think we'll do a compact car in less than five years. Yeah."​

This question was the first one asked in this Q&A Session from the June 2018 AGM:

My take on this is it's a shot across the bow to VW et.al: Either get some quality small EVs on the market within 5 years, or Tesla will move down into that Market too and eat your lunch.

They have been warned.

Cheers!

Tesla just had pencils down for Y. They are working on truck and semi still. Probably will finish that next year. So they will start working on next model end of 2019, will have finished design in 2021 and begin production in 2023.

 

[NicoV]

No the Tesla Compact Car will not be released by 2020, but aspirationally within 5 years (2023) before allowing for "Elon time".

Here's Elon's source quote: (from the 2018 AGM, Elon brief answer to this question)

Audience Question: "I wanted to ask is there going to be a time, you know, perhaps in the next few years, and Tesla's going to produce compact and/or subcompact vehicles. Such a huge segment, and it seems like that would be necessary to fulfill the Master Plan - Part Deux mandate."

Elon Musk: "Yeah, I think we'll do a compact car in less than five years. Yeah."​

This question was the first one asked in this Q&A Session from the June 2018 AGM:

My take on this is it's a shot across the bow to VW et.al: Either get some quality small EVs on the market within 5 years, or Tesla will move down into that Market too and eat your lunch.

They have been warned.

Cheers!

Thanks for finding that quote! That was the one I was referring to.
Anyway, what I wanted to say is that the ID will get competition from Tesla (but maybe not the first few years the ID is on the market), and since Tesla doesn’t artificially restrict the capabilities of its cheaper cars to protect the market share of its more expensive cars, I expect the compact Tesla car to be above and beyond the ID.

 

[neroden]

OT

IF Ford wants to make cool unsafe cars let them.

IF Volvo wants to make uncool safe cars let them.

Sure, as long as they're not allowed to drive the unsafe cars on the public roads, which are the public property of all the people, managed by the government on our behalf, and devoted to the public good of transportation.

Unsafe cars on the public roads were and are killing passengers, pedestrians, bicyclists, and drivers of other cars -- people who chose NOT to buy the unsafe cars. Not OK.

And in fact, cool unsafe cars ARE legal as long as you only drive them on private property which you own. As it should be! There are unsafe car rallies out in the Arizona desert every few years, featuring insane rocket cars and stuff.