TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ClimateOptimst]

In addition to the many presents the OC temporarily living in the people’s blanco casa gives us (/s), he’s given us one last golden buying opportunity to end the year when Tesla hit its stride for the big time. A year hence, we’ll shake our collective heads in disbelief to think TSLA was sub 300 as recently as the end of 2018. Buying more, merry xmas to all, and excited for 2019…

 

[Opus BC fan]

OT

Q: So Kevin, you just lost a boatload of cash (on paper) in December. What are you going to do next?
A: Glad you asked, I'm holding and going to Disney World!

I wish you all some Warm & Wonderful Holidays !!

 

[mongo]

This post was rated 'disagree'? You disagree that this is what I did and plan to do? *boggle*

Makes sense based on this exchange from less than a week ago:

@KarenRei, I feel I was patient enough by not saying anything until now. But could you please stop with your specific money moving challenges and car insurance challenges in market thread action?
Please and thanks. Aren't you moderator now?

Nobody has talked about taxes at all in the past half hour, the post you responded to was from before the market opened today, and I haven't written a thing about Tesla's inconsistent policy toward insurance since yesterday evening after-hours where it was a relatively brief mention - but if you want to resurrect topics in order to say don't resurrect them, sure, do that.

And no, I'm not.

 

[Ocelot]

Ok. Thanks for all the clarification.

I had presumed the customer was on the hook for the import duty. So "price" would be constant, and if Tesla lowered it, that would be on them, but the "tariff/duty" would remain to be applied post purchase at whatever per cent the government has it set at.

What I am reading is that Tesla pays these import duties, and hence benefits directly form the lowering of them?

Chinese tariffs were raised to 40% during the trade war, Tesla had to increase its pricing to reflect the tariffs. Then with recent developments after Trumo met with Xi, tariffs were reduced to 15%, hence Tesla reduced the price of the cars to reflect the new pricing.

It isn’t a demand issue, it’s Tesla being fair to its customers. Shorts have been recycling the “demand” question since 2012. Demand is strong, hence Tesla has been on an expansion spree.

 

[AudubonB]

When Trump was inaugurated the Dow was at about 19,800 points, it’s around 22,000 today. I think the market is over reacting and will recover in 2019.

I'm going to use this part of your post to admonish any investor: NEVER use the DJI as any indicator of anything at all. Best is not ever to look at it even for your own purposes. It is a staggeringly flawed algorithm that Dow Jones uses to create the index. Here is just one example: General Electric, an original component of the Index from the mid-Cretaceous - decreases by too much? Drop it out of the Index!
If anyone cares to redetermine the current level of the DJI by re-inserting GE, I promise that is one post I will not excoriate.

 

[KarenRei]

Makes sense based on this exchange from less than a week ago:

So it's not "disagree", but rather "I don't want to hear from you"? Even though most people here right now are discussing their investment strategies?

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Ok. Thanks for all the clarification.

I had presumed the customer was on the hook for the import duty. So "price" would be constant, and if Tesla lowered it, that would be on them, but the "tariff/duty" would remain to be applied post purchase at whatever per cent the government has it set at.

What I am reading is that Tesla pays these import duties, and hence benefits directly form the lowering of them?

Tariff are paid ordinarily by the importer (Tesla China). Tesla China then sets its prices with reference to its costs (including the tariff) and its competition.

 

[JRP3]

Just want to say, I miss some of the 'shorts' viewpoints around here. even on a day like today, I am mostly reading 'great buying opportunity'. things seem out of balance.

Also, China price cuts have me concerned. I have long felt a sedan over CUV/SUV was not the right move. There is no way you cut prices, hence cutting profit, with huge debt repayment upcoming if demand was strong, or even good.

Still all in, but also realizing still have a choice about that, where I do not want to see a day, I don't.

SUV popularity becomes entrenched in Chinese auto market - USA - Chinadaily.com.cn

Your post shows a fundamental misunderstanding about what's going on. Maybe that's why you value the "viewpoint" of the shorts.

 

[anthonyj]

Hoping for Tesla to announce the 2 new independent directors this week.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I'm going to use this part of your post to admonish any investor: NEVER use the DJI as any indicator of anything at all. Best is not ever to look at it even for your own purposes. It is a staggeringly flawed algorithm that Dow Jones uses to create the index. Here is just one example: General Electric, an original component of the Index from the mid-Cretaceous - decreases by too much? Drop it out of the Index!
If anyone cares to redetermine the current level of the DJI by re-inserting GE, I promise that is one post I will not excoriate.

Yes, Wilshire 5000 is much better. 23,743 on Inauguration Day to 24,151 today.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Missed my chance to initiate a transfer from personal funds to my IB account today. Will probably have to wait until the 26th to do it, then who knows how long of a wait. Who knows how long low prices will hold...

Looking to get some $300s to pair with my $330s and $360s for Q4.

I hope your transfer finally comes through. So this drop will end.

 

[SteveG3]

OT

fwiw, while Tesla is getting close to -25% from its 52 week high, and markets generally are -20%, Panasonic is getting close to -50% (looking quickly, I don't see a drastic change in currency rates behind this). I never looked into Panasonic in any depth, but, like a few more of us here, I've had some curiosity. Trailing PE is 9.4 and it has a 2.9% dividend yield. Again, have not done a deep dive on Panasonic, but, I do think there's going to be a battery shortage for over a decade.

 

[Buckminster]

Happy Christmas ?
Happy Christmas ?
What the BLEEP is that.

Trump won the war. Its MERRY Christmas !


/Sarcasm in case you don't know me.

Well I for one am finding all of your Merry Christmas wishes very rude. Not all forum members are alcoholics surely....

 

[sundaymorning]

Ok. Thanks for all the clarification.

I had presumed the customer was on the hook for the import duty. So "price" would be constant, and if Tesla lowered it, that would be on them, but the "tariff/duty" would remain to be applied post purchase at whatever per cent the government has it set at.

What I am reading is that Tesla pays these import duties, and hence benefits directly form the lowering of them?

When tariffs are increased, the new price is passed onto the consumer immediately, not after purchase. For example, if a TV cost $1,000 to buy, a 25% increase in tariffs would mean it now cost the consumer $1250; unless the TV manufacture was so generous they’ve decided to foot the $250 tariff bill (which would cut into profits). This generosity often times never occurs. So when the tariffs were raised clot 40%, Tesla’s became more expensive for the Chinese to buy, when it was reduced to 15%, Tesla’s became less expansive to buy. The reduction in price is a demand generator, it’s good for Tesla. Which is why we’re seeing news of demand for Tesla’s in China increase as reported by Chinese media, posted by Vincent:

The demand FUD will continue even when Tesla surpasses 10 million cars per year.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Not all forum members are alcoholics surely....

Today may have increased the proportion.

 

[M3Rider]

Well I for one am finding all of your Merry Christmas wishes very rude. Not all forum members are alcoholics surely....

I think I spent all my booze money on TSLA. Will have to stay sober until after ER

 

[Ocelot]

Your post shows a fundamental misunderstanding about what's going on. Maybe that's why you value the "viewpoint" of the shorts.

Just was saying this place is a bit echo-y, lately. But its obvious from your post, that we treat all people with dignity and respect in this place, right? So no reason, why anybody who constantly gets barraged would leave, even if they had some valid points to make.

You know you can learn things from all different viewpoints? For example you can learn about displaying kindness and compassion from someone who treats you without those things.

As i posted downstream to the post you disagreed with, I admit I might be misunderstanding things. That why I am clarifying. I have only imported one car in my life. The price was the same, and I was responsible for the duty/tax as the customer. I paid this as the car crossed the border , after buying the car. The seller was non-involved in that. Maybe for a new car Tesla pays the government directly its import fees? Not sure. Hence was worried.

Thanks @sundaymorning for clarifying.

 

[sundaymorning]

I'm going to use this part of your post to admonish any investor: NEVER use the DJI as any indicator of anything at all. Best is not ever to look at it even for your own purposes. It is a staggeringly flawed algorithm that Dow Jones uses to create the index. Here is just one example: General Electric, an original component of the Index from the mid-Cretaceous - decreases by too much? Drop it out of the Index!
If anyone cares to redetermine the current level of the DJI by re-inserting GE, I promise that is one post I will not excoriate.

Should I use the SP 500 instead?

The S&P 500 rose 34% from its closing level of 2,139.56 on Election Day - November 8, 2016 - to a high of 2,872.87 on January 26, 2018.

Here's how much further stocks would have to fall to wipe out their gains since Trump's election

Today the S&P is at 2,351.

Most analysts I read about use the S&P as an indicator. The Dow info posted above was a headline that was easier to find. Despite being “down” recently, stocks have been largely up since inauguration. This post isn’t meant for being political btw.

 

[sundaymorning]

What I am reading is the customer pays tesla a price, and Tesla pays the government. If this is the case obviously when import duties go down, Tesla can pass those savings along. If this is not the case, ie. customer pays the duties directly to government, then obviously lowering the price would be a negative to Tesla with respect to margins.

When a vehicle lands in China, Tesla has to pay for the tariffs immediately, whether it be new or used it will be tariffed. Then the price of the tariffs gets passed onto the customer.

If you’re buying a used vehicle from another consumer, chances are there are no tariffs involved as the individual didn’t import the vehicle themselves to be sold as a profit, it’s seen as a regular transaction deemed to be taxed on whatever your country/state charges for sales tax.

The fact that an investor such as yourself isn’t aware of tariff laws is quite common; hence, shorts tend to capitalize and use these sorts of FUD to distort data and sow confusion. Most investors don’t get the same clarification they do here. I sometimes make the same error in judgement and members here help straighten me out.

 

[tivoboy]

Nasdaq closes down 2.21% (below 6,200) and Tesla 295.39 (down 7.62%).

The best market ever, I tell you ! Great job, Mr Trump.

Even more records broken! WORST Christmas Eve trading result in HISTORY, we’ve never had more than a 1% down day on the day before Christmas. Well we broke that record by more than 2x. Winning!