TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

I'm wondering about this $8K cost for FSD that he mentions. Right now, it is available off-menu for $5K; does this mean a price increase is coming in the future?

I was given details about this yesterday by a Tesla sales agent in Westmont, Illinois. That $5000 is the price for immediate activation of the software for the current version of Enhanced Autopilot (the only Autpilot type ow available). Without it you get no Autopilot at all, even though the hardware is already in your car.

When fully autonomous autopilot becomes available, to receive it would require an additional payment of $3000, which would include the software and any necessary hardware implementation. Hence the reference to $8000 for fully autonomous autopilot. The $3000 can be paid immediately, or more sensibly one can wait until full self-driving becomes available. I was told by the sales agent that virtually all customers choose to wait to pay the $3000 later.

One can first choose a 30-day trial of Enhanced Autopilot software, and then pay $5500 to keep it. If waiting longer than 30 days before deciding you want Enhanced Autopilot, the price would be $7000. Eventually an extra $3000 would be required to receive the software and hardware necessary for fully autonomous Autopilot.

 

[Tifighter]

When fully autonomous autopilot becomes available, to receive it would require an additional payment of $3000, which would include the software and any necessary hardware implementation. Hence the reference to $8000 for fully autonomous autopilot. The $3000 can be paid immediately, or more sensibly one can wait until full self-driving becomes available. I was told by the sales agent that virtually all customers choose to wait to pay the $3000 later.

So would I, but I don't think that's an option. When I go onto my account, it does give me the option to add FSD to my car, but the price is higher ($5K) than if you added it at the time of the original order ($3K). I already have EAP -

 

[MarcusMaximus]

'1000% more' is 11x as much. (10x + 1x) Nice to see even Elon muffs this one... #mathnerdniggles

I’ve had coworkers outright refuse to accept that there’s a difference. I’ve learned to give up on arguing that one.

 

[Fact Checking]

@Fact Checking Are those the cost or the MSRP? (As my understanding is that the MSRP gets large discounts in Germany, even larger than the US.)

They were prices from the BMW online configurator. I believe you generally don't get significant discounts on individually configured cars, unless you happen to luck upon a car in inventory.

The way you can get discounts in Germany, on the order of magnitude of 15%, is if you compromise on an inventory car and negotiate optimally. You can get better deals as well, sometimes in the 20-30% range, by helping the dealer move slightly stale inventory cars with high margin (well specced) trims at the end of accounting periods.

But this is a significant effort not everyone is willing to or capable to perform: women, the elderly and the young and inexperienced are often at a disadvantage in new car price negotiations.

While it's not as bad as the U.S. car dealership experience, it's still a significant effort that is a total waste of time if we think about it: it's partly an emergent property of the somewhat dated production and inventory management practices of the car industry, combined with the middleman price gouging skills of car salesmen.

 

[Curt Renz]

So would I, but I don't think that's an option. When I go onto my account, it does give me the option to add FSD to my car, but the price is higher ($5K) than if you added it at the time of the original order ($3K). I already have EAP -
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If was told by a Tesla sales agent that if you buy through a store rather than online, you can choose to pay the $3000 immediately. But virtually everyone postpones that decision, since there would be no added charge for waiting.

 

[HG Wells]

I thought you had to get EAP and FSD at the same time to get HW3 for free.

 

[MP3Mike]

The way you can get discounts in Germany, on the order of magnitude of 15%, is if you compromise on an inventory car and negotiate optimally. You can get better deals as well, sometimes in the 20-30% range, by helping the dealer move slightly dated inventory of cars with high margin (well specced) trims at the end of accounting periods.

Interesting I have seen other people say that it is an automatic 20-30% off with no haggling. And that nobody ever pays near MSRP. I'll have to go looking to see if I can find that.

 

[Fact Checking]

Interesting I have seen other people say that it is an automatic 20-30% off with no haggling. And that nobody ever pays near MSRP. I'll have to go looking to see if I can find that.

It's highly seasonal: the best new car sales in Germany are in the spring and summer. Fall and winter sales are lower, in part due to customers unwilling to drive an unfamiliar car in more dangerous winter conditions.

Combined with the model year switch and end of fiscal year inventory pushes, the best discounts are available in December: up to 20-30% on inventory units. You don't even have to haggle in that case - they will often be listed with the discount displayed.

I don't think there are significant rebates on individually configured, build to order premium cars - but maybe someone will correct me.

 

[mickificki]

So would I, but I don't think that's an option. When I go onto my account, it does give me the option to add FSD to my car, but the price is higher ($5K) than if you added it at the time of the original order ($3K). I already have EAP -
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I believe you’re correct. It was originally $5k for EAP and $3k for FSD. Buying FSD afterwards is $5k, which should include hardware upgrade if necessary.

I purchased EAP only as well.

I think the price of FSD will actually increase after it’s been proven out.

Time to line up and put your reservations in fellas.

Edit: crap I just re-read tifighters post and electreks article on the FSD internal email. I think FSD will be $8k when it rolls out. Ouch, time to sell a kidney.

 

[ChrML]

Steady buying pressure and good volume on the end of the day today when it found strong support at 300$. Rallying from 302 to 317, now consolidating on 315-ish. Making a higher low on the daily chart since yesterday.

Still correlating strongly with SPY suggesting the overall market is what's mostly been dragging it down. I think 302 was a good buy. Let's see if we get a continuation tomorrow or into the new year.

 

[Menifeer]

They have a far inferior battery, no battery supplier (for volume), no ability to fast charge, and the vehicles are a mish mash of OEM buttontopia and Tesla we-don’t-need-no-sticking-buttons-knobs-or-dials such that the user experience is adversely affected - that’s what I’ve heard.

So, I don’t highly recommend NIO shares. I’ve yet to decide if I’ll sell mine. Playing a bit of wait and see.

I've added more here in the low $6 range (shares and $3 Aug Calls). Also sold some $7 January Puts.

Covered Calls I wrote for December all expired worthless, so I'm ahead for now.

It's a crap-shoot, but maybe it will pan out. Fun to watch if nothing else.

 

[RobStark]

I went through current BMW pricing a couple of days ago:

'The Model 3 changes all that:

• LR AWD starts at around €58k, versus €108k for a 100D with similar range.
• Performance Model 3 at €68k versus €145k for a P100D.

I expect the addressable market of the Model 3 to be surprisingly broad.

The 2018 prices are no longer available on BMW Deutchland site.

Audi A4 Saloon/Sedan starts at ~30k Euro in Europe. Based on the premium model markup base Model 3 will start at ~43k Euro.

The breath of the market is defined by how far a model goes down market not the premium models. This is how we get big numbers and sales above 200k units per year.

I am told TCO has higher importance in the buying decision in Europe than the USA relative to price of the car. This tends to be the case in jurisdictions which have high vehicle taxes.More so in Denmark than say Switzerland. The price of electricity is also more expensive in Europe than the USA. A look at difference is gasoline/diesel prices doesn't realize the savings it would suggest.

Also I am told that most cars in the Model 3 class are purchased/leased as company cars where prices are negotiated optimally.

 

[brian45011]

He’s asking for $75k ... not worth paying the legal bills to fight this imho, especially since it’s clear that Elon was popping off with no proof ...

That's the jurisdictional thresh hold. The prayer is " in excess of".

 

[Chickenlittle]

The 2018 prices are no longer available on BMW Deutchland site.

Audi A4 Saloon/Sedan starts at ~30k Euro in Europe. Based on the premium model markup base Model 3 will start at ~43k Euro.
I AM TOLD no higher accuracy than statements with those references
The breath of the market is defined by how far a model goes down market not the premium models. This is how we get big numbers and sales above 200k units per year.

I am told TCO has higher importance in the buying decision in Europe than the USA relative to price of the car. This tends to be the case in jurisdictions which have high vehicle taxes.More so in Denmark than say Switzerland. The price of electricity is also more expensive in Europe than the USA. A look at difference is gasoline/diesel prices doesn't realize the savings it would suggest.

Also I am told that most cars in the Model 3 class are purchased/leased as company cars where prices are negotiated optimally.

 

[EVNow]

I.e. the Model 3 expands the addressable market much more in Europe than it did in the U.S., even at the current $66k+ entry price for the LR AWD."

I think the demand for 3 is mainly limited by how many people are willing to ditch ICE and get an EV. That is the part we don't know - and is difficult to predict.

When bears (and MSM) make an argument against rapid growth and sustainability of Tesla, they are thinking that EV is niche. The market won't expand much etc. That is also the reason they think VW or Audi entering the market will reduce Tesla sales. We have to just point to 2 facts
- Regulation will only increase (for eg. city centers banning ICE)
- EV total market is growing very fast

It is ironic that they think Tesla is not sustainable, but ICE makers are

 

[Analyst007]

Bought 150 shares @303

 

[EVNow]

It's a day-trader's wet dream! Crazy stuff...

Only in hindsight. You can easily get cought the wrong way.

 

[Kuhz]

Only in hindsight. You can easily get cought the wrong way.

Yup. Everything is 20/20 back there....

 

[30seconds]

Who are these Almington Capital idiots showing up in Twitter?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

New Tesla-internal email from Elon earlier today, about them expanding FSD beta testing:

Notes:

• The first wave participants back in September were about 100-200 employees. They are now expanding that to at least 600 I think - maybe as much as 1,000 employees.
• They only needed 3 months to grow confident enough to initiate the final wave of FSD beta testing.
• Elon doubled down on his previous performance claims: "over 10 times more capable".
• Just 4 days left from Q4: this $8k incentive to Tesla employees could generate a few more inventory sales.
• Introduction of HW3 will roughly coincide with the introduction of the Standard Range option. Both should significantly boost demand.
• EAP+FSD option pricing is unchanged at $5k+$3k = $8k.

My speculative guess: the first HW3 based FSD features will be released between March and July 2019.

(My not so speculative guess: in the following months the probability of occasional FSD progress leaks will go up by an order of magnitude. )

Source: Reddit thread.

We were told our cars were FSD hardware capable when we bought them, so I don't think we should be charged extra to swap out the computer.