TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

TSLA is climbing like a champ. This is the TSLA I know and love.

@CuriousSunbird, you're my favorite short because I think you're authentic. C'mon. Join the good guys. Let's make some money together.

 

[Causalien]

I'm going to throw this out there with regards to cash.

SO WHAT if Tesla needs to raise capital ? It may happen but if it does do you thing a company with 500,000 (roughly) orders for a groundbreaking new product is going to have that much trouble finding money? Yes, it may cost quite a bit but that's business ... long term people are throwing around some pretty lofty projections, so overpaying for short term capital to get them through is the cost of doing business.

For now I'm going to take Elon at his word and let's see what happens ... if they do have to raise I'm sure it won't be good for the stock short term but it may actually be great for the stock long term.

Frankly, I don't like the idea of letting the Semi and the Y sit around while we wait for the capital situation to get better .... How about Elon taking Tim Cook to lunch ?? Get the two talking ... Apple wants very badly to be in the car space in some fashion, having Apple bankroll the operation takes all the pressure off and lets Tesla get a jump on infrastructure (Charging stations everywhere, Service centers everywhere) as well as gets the Semi and Y into production quicker. It could (Yes it could also be an unmitigated disaster) be a great joint venture ..... perfect timing as Apple has a TON of money they are repatriating.

Lunch is on me ... anywhere .... you can even super-size it

Just throwing that out there.

Cheers to the longs.

Tim cook is too shrewd and scary to partner up with.

 

[Causalien]

Cup and handle on the interday chart?

The gap will always be closed. .

 

[gtrplyr1]

Tim cook is too shrewd and scary to partner up with.

Not at all.

Shares many of the same values as Elon ... Apple is now 100% energy independent all over the world. He's a man of vision and seems to care deeply about this issue, I would think they have way more in common than differences. Not naive here .... but both companies could profit from each others assets.

 

[SteveG3]

Here is what I see:

[snip]

Something has changed.

-Jim

I think there's been a shift from ~always breakneck speed racing forward~ visible even from outside the company for at least 6 months.

I don't remember precisely, but,

2 or 3 calls ago (so, 6 or 9 months ago), Elon described how he'd been talked down within Tesla re doing Model Y on a new improved platform vs. off of TM3. He basically said he'd been saved from foolishly trying to do to much by other voices within Tesla.

2 calls ago, possibly just 1 call back (so, probably 6 months ago), Elon described how the timeline for the ramp for TM3 from 5K/week to 10/K per week was not so clear. He indicated that following the ramp to 5K/week, they would need to evaluate what could be done by more slowly getting more out of existing equipment, and what would be done by the simpler, quicker, but more expensive choice of buying new equipment. He described a balance to be considered between speed and keeping expenses down. That was in contrast to the "reckless growth" sort of approach of the past.

fwiw, I agree with some others that Deepak (and quite possibly JB) may be having more influence on Elon. The experience with the battery pack ramp in Nevada has clearly had an impact. Many times I've heard Elon say, ~"we do not want to go through that kind of pain again." Experience may well have opened Elon to what those close to him have probably been saying for years re pushing limits (i.e., he was probably offered contrary advice re pushing forward by nearly 2 years the goal of getting to 500K vehicles per year).

 

[Todd Burch]

Sheesh. We gonna hit $300 again today kids?

 

[Unpilot]

Sheesh. We gonna hit $300 again today kids?

Yep

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm finding lately that a lot of my serious posts are getting "Funny" responses. Is it me?

Edit:

<serious>I'm going to start writing my posts like this.</serious>

 

[justvisiting]

Why do people keep asking me if I'm serious?

Of course I'm fricking serious. Don't confuse a growth company with a company at maturity.

PE is only a reasonable evaluation when a company has reached maturity. C'mon dude. It's common sense. People invest for the future. Massively growing companies (i.e. Amazon, Tesla) show profit later, but stock rise often precedes it.

You said:

"The very question implies EPS should be tied to share price. Old school."

that is an absurd statement. If you mean you ignore EPS now because you expect future EPS to be great, that is a legit investment approach. Simply stating that EPS and share price being connected is "old school" is a laughable statement.

 

[elasalle]

I'm finding lately that a lot of my serious posts are getting "Funny" responses. Is it me?

Edit:

<serious>I'm going to start writing my posts like this.</serious>

"300" was Like, "kids" was Funny

 

[Todd Burch]

You said:

"The very question implies EPS should be tied to share price. Old school."

that is an absurd statement. If you mean you ignore EPS now because you expect future EPS to be great, that is a legit investment approach. Simply stating that EPS and share price being connected is "old school" is a laughable statement.

Please read again, more slowly and carefully. I'll help you with emphasis [mine].

PE is only a reasonable evaluation when a company has reached maturity.

 

[Kuhz]

Shorts who didn’t cover yesterday: AAAAAAGGGHHH, Whyyyyyyyy!?!?!? (While screaming pointlessly at the sky)

 

[Todd Burch]

"300" was Like, "kids" was Funny

<serious>Sheesh. We gonna hit $300 again today</serious><funny>kids</funny>?

 

[Todd Burch]

I smell covering. And it smells good.

 

[Ugliest1]

Point, but don't stare. "Burning daylight" is going to take on a whole new meaning when I get my Model 3. Come on VIN! Where are you? We're burning daylight here!

Why am I so happy today? Elon gives a major smackdown to analysts. Crammer stands behind him in it. Stock price takes a dive. And it's another sunny day in Arizona. Go figure.

Completely off topic, but I'm reminded of the probably 20-30 year old absolutely hilarious Arizona Tourism commercial about Arizona's "Cloudwatch" efforts, where people in AZ were panicking because someone spotted a single tiny cloud somewhere over highway X, and they were worried it might actually turn into rain.

[EDIT: This aired in BC Canada, trying to drag tourists into the state... probably didn't air in AZ for obvious reasons. Too bad. It was hilarious.]

 

[Todd Burch]

$296 now! Notice how price is starting to arc upward. It's accelerating.

 

[SteveG3]

You said:

"The very question implies EPS should be tied to share price. Old school."

that is an absurd statement. If you mean you ignore EPS now because you expect future EPS to be great, that is a legit investment approach. Simply stating that EPS and share price being connected is "old school" is a laughable statement.

people, of course, can do whatever they want, and while I wouldn't use the term "laughable," I basically agree with you "justvisiting."

fwiw, use of the approach you mentioned (forecasting forward EPS) convinced me to put ~25% of my assets into a core TSLA position in 2012 based on weighted averaging several EPS scenarios I modeled for 2017 (with a lot of help from a report by Adam Jonas) that led me to a $175 target price. I had no idea then how the rest of the auto market would be so focused on kicking the can down the road on getting into EVs, so I had forecasted profits, rather than massive reinvestment into torrent growth for another decade plus.

Using a conservative version of this method (very conservative on the early stage businesses it's far harder to know what reasonable assumptions would be), I forecast a price of $1200-1800 c.2026.

 

[Jayjs20]

$296 now! Notice how price is starting to arc upward. It's accelerating.

You jinxed it Todd. You totally jinxed it.

 

[TheMrX]

Tesla just registered 535 more VINs. Would be cool if they're using that to send a message that 535 is their current daily production level (that would be 3,745/wk).

535 in the old calculator language also translate to ''SES''.

So while there are many, many meaning to this acronym, see :
SES

My favorites of the moment are : ''Service Engine Soon'' regarding ice car and ''Self Efficacy Scale''

maybe Value Analyst could do a pooling on '' what is your best guest on SES meaning?''

disclaimer : just having fun

 

[Todd Burch]

You jinxed it Todd. You totally jinxed it.

I thought Elon told you short-term guys to get outta his stock!