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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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In my military mind, we all need to take a step back and allow Elon his space.
Elon to Tesla is where the rubber meets the road; while as an investor and owner of a Model X, I am on the periphery looking in/commenting. Analysts are no different than bean counters ~ is the jar half-full or half-empty ~ none of them work for Elon/Tesla.
We just saw Elon vent Wednesday ~ bottom line; I am surprised he did not vent sooner. And, I have no trouble with his venting.
Thursdays downer day, for me was to be expected. Today's, Friday, action is satisfying/gratifying (crossed my fingers it would go this way). I will not post this until the closing bell ~ not to jinks this puppy.
While none of us have ever day-dreamed of putting together something from someone else's failed dream; Elon has and is doing just that here and now with Tesla, SpaceX and. . . Ford, while wildly successful with his Model T; I am doubtful he could have repeated it today because the press would have wiped him off the floor (today) with his paying employees a living wadge that would allow them to buy a Model T.
Again, while most of us have never been in Elon's shoes, I have on a one billionth of the scale lived through a pressure cooker and lived to talk about it; which is why as a long, I will go to the ends of the earth for him. Was I successful? Hell I do not know, I was promoted, and given additional jobs of increased responsibilities ~ while in the military.
We have seen on what seem too many occasions where top/key players have jump ship. On a typical storm day, that would be a concerning question, why are they jumping ship? Let me remind you, we can not all work 24/7 under extreme stress for infinity. Elon is still there as the catalyst, cattle prod, whip, and driving force trying against all odds to make this Tesla dream a stand up reality. God knows what would happen if Elon did. . . That is one hell of a lot of pressure ~ just guessing.
Back in my day, I had a Jonas of my own. He was a Marine Corps officer and since I was US Army OCS as opposed to the Army or Naval Academy and in the bottom 10% of military schooling; he hated me with a purple passion (just trying to be polite). To help you and him at this point in my story, I graduated from high school in the bottom 10% too because I had only just begun to learn to read in the seventh grade. Oh, and I was in the bottom 10% of the US society too having enlisted (not drafted) in the army in 1969 ~ that was a foolish thing to do, but, I can now laugh with my retirement check in the bank). . . Hell, I would have had to stay in college (I now have five college degrees), or get married (now 44 years married and the same woman kept me too), or receive a 4-F (physically unfit) rating, or be a criminal, or run away to Canada to name of few ways to avoid the draft. Once we were both Majors, at a military wide conference (1991), I stood to ask a question as the European Commander's Field Artillery representative, and my friend Major Jonas jumps up and yells "he does not know what he is talking about." Surprised the poo out of me, I managed to rise to the occasion, rattled off my resume' and then calmly and professionally turned to face the moderator and asked the question again, on behalf of the US Army Commander of Europe, a four star general, q u e s t i o n. . . I was not bankrupt, nor was I going bankrupt:)
In my second battery command, I was supposed to have received the very first HUMMVs in Europe back in 1983, but some blow-hard missed the manufacturing deadline ~ did not stop the former governor of California from buying seven of them later though:) The brand new, first to arrive in Europe rocket launchers did arrive in time though:) Unlike Flinn, that is how the Russians came to know me by my name and rank at the time.
Had Elon said yesterday that Tesla was closing the Fremont factory, or the gigafactory one and two, and China did not like his attitude, then yes, I would have been three sheets to the wind by now ~ but instead he (Elon) rose to the occasion and blew off some steam.
If Elon had wasted our time by answering the questions, then some would be complaining that it was "same-o-same-o 1Q18 report." Now, we will always remember it as the time Elon blew off the big guys. If you really think about it, Elon/Tesla has been blowing off the big guys since the beginning:) Just another day in the stride of Tesla:)

Me, I'll be here till the cows come home:) Oh, and FYI ~ the chickens do come home to roost every night!
 
Not at all.

Shares many of the same values as Elon ... Apple is now 100% energy independent all over the world. He's a man of vision and seems to care deeply about this issue, I would think they have way more in common than differences. Not naive here .... but both companies could profit from each others assets.

GTAT's lessons bear remebering. Also Samsung.
 
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Was I successful? Hell I do not know, I was promoted, and given additional jobs of increased responsibilities ~ while in the military.

My first boss used to always tell me, "The only reward for work well done is more work."

As far as being in a pressure cooker, I think there is something about Elon that thrives (possibly need to be) in one. Yet, I acknowledge I'm sure he does need a break, most likely the one he really wants is in a spaceship. I hope he realizes that dream as soon as it is clear his missions here on Earth are realized.
 
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Update Tesla China News : More evidence about Tesla China
1f1e8-1f1f3.png
sales is increasing rapidly— 2000 extra positions opening for campus hiring in Q1 2018, position include Product Specialist, Delivery Experience Specialist, Inside Sales Advisor, Customer Support Specialist

here is my tweet : vincent on Twitter
 
If I remember correctly, both Philip Fisher and Peter Lynch talked about this. I think there are reasons behind this phenomenon. It often works.

However, as Tesla grows larger, when they are producing large numbers of Model S, X, 3, and energy products, the MaxQ for Semi and Model Y will be less significant. I would rather sit through them.
That's what I thought about the Model 3 launch. Boy was I wrong!
 
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Wow, this sentence caught my eyes:
"Today with rates on the existing 40 million shorts at 3.69%, it is costing short sellers $1.2 million/day to finance their short Tesla positions."

If that is not the very definition of cash burning, then I cannot imagine what could fit better!
So, the race is on: who can burn cash faster ? Tesla or the shorts ? ;)
 
Wow, this sentence caught my eyes:
"Today with rates on the existing 40 million shorts at 3.69%, it is costing short sellers $1.2 million/day to finance their short Tesla positions."

If that is not the very definition of cash burning, then I cannot imagine what could fit better!
So, the race is on: who can burn cash faster ? Tesla or the shorts ? ;)

That's a big spend, but they would break even on a $0.03 drop per day... (if it 1: stayed down, and 2: they closed position)
 
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Yeah, but wouldn't the shares available to short go up as the borrow rate went up? Just because institutions don't currently hawk out their shares doesn't mean they wouldn't in the future should daily borrow interest rates get high enough.
Another likely outcome is if some good news comes out, and the stock pops, it won't come back down. Usually in other stocks, good news occurs, price pops, then people sell to cash in, and price comes back down again. In TSLA's case, if almost all shares have been borrowed, then if anyone wants to sell some shares after a pop, that would trigger a recall of those shares from some short who borrowed them, the short has to cover, thus creating an equal size buy, canceling out the effect of the sell.
 
My first boss used to always tell me, "The only reward for work well done is more work."

As far as being in a pressure cooker, I think there is something about Elon that thrives (possibly need to be) in one. Yet, I acknowledge I'm sure he does need a break, most likely the one he really wants is in a spaceship. I hope he realizes that dream as soon as it is clear his missions here on Earth are realized.

Haha. I've always had this idea of taking Elon to a meditation retreat once his mission is accomplished.
 
Guys, I usually just update latest Asia Tesla News, but I would like to share some of my view about this CC
, Elon being so confidence ( media called him Jerk ), that I have feeling about something is just happening.

All of us knew China GGF location will be announce Q3-Q4, 90% of ppl think about building batteries and cars in China, demand will be huge, plus M3 showcase happening over there. But quietly, Tesla also having a Tesla Energy showcase this year from March - Dec in different location of China, show Chinese customers about Solar Roof and Powerpack. Here is the link : 『Tesla的可持续生活方式』- 全国巡展 | 特斯拉中国 - Tesla. To me, this will be EPIC in the future.

About the the reaction of Elon from the CC also tweets from today, seems like he already have a solution of the capital issues:

My guess:

1/ Possible Tecent increase position news will be announce

2/ Possible new Chinese Companies become new Tesla shareholders ( will benefit Tesla China sales )

3/ Possible new Partnership establish with Chinese Giant Company for GGF China ( for sure not Auto Markers ), for example Alibaba who also own Ant Financial ( Ant Financial - Wikipedia ) will benefit for more capital raise if necessary, also benefit with their current media network over there in China.

Thats my wild guess.

His confidence is in fact beaming right now. According to Elon, the battery module bottlenecks at the GF seems to be resolved. The next bottleneck to get us to 3,000/ week is at Fremont, and appears to be an easy software fix that Tesla can implement. With his emphasis on “no capital raise”, it makes me wonder if the China Tesla partnership has already been worked out, and they are only awaiting government approval before making an announcement.
 
My guess:

1/ Possible Tecent increase position news will be announce

2/ Possible new Chinese Companies become new Tesla shareholders ( will benefit Tesla China sales )

Is it possible for Tesla to sell company bonds or anything to a company/bank/government in China? Maybe this China deal is taking so long because the Chinese government wants ownership rights but will build the factory and Tesla would rather take money and only offer a payback with interest like the US Fed loan years ago. Maybe this kind of deal is almost signed?
 
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I was just musing what if the delay on Model Y is more due to plans shifting to produce it in an as-yet-unbuilt plant in China? The "buy American" in me doesn't really care for it, but it would almost certainly help margins. Heck, based on those auto shows that have been posted all Chinese production might stay in China!

I'm not even sure what kinds of cars are in demand in China right now, I'd assume closer to Japan/Europe tastes than the SUVs of North America.....

The whole point of European GF and Chinese GF is to locally produce the low cost car because shipping and even low tariffs eat significant margin or require you to raise prices vs competitors.

American Model Ys will be made in North America, almost certainly in the US.

And Chinese automotive taste are closer to American than Europe/Japan. Maybe even more "American" than America. Chinese prefer big very bold aggressively styled vehicles. Not subtle or understated. Model X is the only non-Chinese car on the Chinese Top 20 EV Sales list. Model S is nowhere to be found. Because Chinese like big flashy( Falcon Wing doored) SUVs.
 
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