Pre-sale trade-ins seem like they would be quite rare. That exchange usually does not occur until delivery day, else the buyer would be short a vehicle.
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Pre-sale trade-ins seem like they would be quite rare. That exchange usually does not occur until delivery day, else the buyer would be short a vehicle.
It can in terms of buyer's options/ ASP. The 7,500 credit gives people the option of going EAP for 'free' without impacting delivery timing. Or spending 5k on premium interior to get their car earlier.
1 Yes, provided they're not the shares he's pledged.
2 Yes, although if it was a very big order he and his broker are likely to have some rules on giving the broker prior notice
3 Possibly
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Tax credits (and taxes) relating to a transaction get shared between the buyer and the seller no matter which they are given to (imposed upon). The ratio of sharing depends upon the relative elasticity of supply and demand.
MacRocket
Faster than Falcon 9
Well? What are we all waiting for?
Surely some of our 61000 ordinary TMC members can get on over to twitter and fight some FUD with facts? Elon’s had a rough week, let’s give him a hand.
Get your facts from teslaFUD.com
The momentum on the bull side has surged in the last few weeks. Twitter is lit up with FUD fighters. It’s been incredible.
This is so important, because bears can easily discredit one or a few FUD fighters, but a diversified FUD Fighting Fellowship army of hundreds? No way. They are toast.
I say get out on the battlefield and enjoy the ride. Stay above the personal attacks. Support each other. Distinguish between a handful of FUDsters who want to just waste your time(block them) and the vast majority on the bear side who simply were misled (educate them).As you participate, others will be attracted to join you.
It’s gonna be a hot summer.
I'll agree that the tax credits can affect ASP and thus also affect profit margin. But it doesn't affect profitability, directly.
Tesla may have to make changes to pricing and option packages over time, to get the desired ASP and margin.
That doesn't mean we can't determine how robust demand is in a couple of quarters. In two quarters, Tesla will probably have delivered around 90,000 additional Model 3. If the reservations are at 400-450,000, that indicates robust demand, as no one reserving now can expect to get the full credit, and maybe not even a partial credit.
That's true, although a current conversion/deferral rate would help more, and sooner.
Not really, Tesla has to start trying to sell the Model 3 before we can judge demand to any real degree. There needs to be Model 3's in every store globally, with test drives for everyone. The full range of options should also be available, with detailed information on the website, including pricing info.
The closer we get to the above, the clearer the picture will become. Right now we are very far away.
Remember that a lot of the professional shorts are hedging with the convertibles so their downside is capped.
Yeah, it is not a guaranteed direct impact. If people purchase purely based on feature set, then the credit has no impact. If their choices are based on net cost, the credit helps Tesla (with EAP purchases helping the most)
bambam4171
Member
The tax credit is only for US deliveries. A large portion of those reservations are in places with no tax incentives, others in places like Norway with good tax incentives. What are the nationality breakdown of the current 400,000+ reservation list? We don't know but I'd guess half could care less about a US tax credit to begin with.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I think depends on just how large GF3 will be.
We know that GF3 will produce both batteries and vehicles. Moreover the Chinese market is at least as big as the US market for all products. So if the appetite is to satifisfy domestic demand plus substantial surplus for export, we are talking about an extremely large campus.
So perhaps the following is a minimal estimate of capacity, mostly sized to Chinese domestic demand:
1M/y autos paired with 75GWh/y batteries
100k/y semi paired with 75GWh/y batteries
150GWh/y stationary storage
Total 1.1M vehicles, 300 GWh batteries
So rough ballpark guess $40B to $50B capital needed.
Note that China's installation of solar is exploding, maybe 45 GW this year. The overwhelming majority of this is rooftop solar, in part because the grid has such difficulty keeping up with the expansion of wind and solar. Easily 100GWh could be added to the grid each year just to catch up with existing transmission challenges. But there is also huge opportunity with rooftop solar, certainly to pair with Powerwalls. Solarroofs may be an attractive upscale market too, but I'm not including that in my list above.
So last week Musk lifted the middle finger to Wall Street, knowing that huge opportunities were brewing in China. We are looking at $40B to $50B capital needed for China's domestic market. How badly do Street Banks want in on that action? Perhaps showing a little respect to Mr Musk and Tesla would be in order. How badly do Chinese banks want in on this capital raise? How badly does the Chinese government want this financing to be done in the Chinese yuan? Perhaps deals have already been struck.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Q: How long would it technically take to cover 10%, 50%, 75%, and 90% of the shorts?
Pipperger has a poll on his Twitter feed: should shorts be concerned about Musk’s warning, or should they throw a pie in the face of longs. Over 80% have chosen pie.
Wow, that's pretty amazing. Especially the focus on short selling, which seems an odd thing for someone working for a competitor to emphasize.
I am sure @SteveG3 will find this interesting.
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