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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Very curious times. I realise that many of us are somewhat bullish, but I see nothing but positive news and catalysts coming from Tesla right now, and yet the SP reduces. It’s very odd. Either:

A) I’m totally misled by my rosy-specs and kool-aid
B) Some people actually get taken-in by the hyped crash stories and FUD
C) The shorts are shorting like hell with the belief that the cash will run out before the ramp

As that bloke said, place your bets...

Seriously, no long with any comprehension of the state-of-play would sell right now, only if they had to for whatever reason.

I wonder if Elon is waiting for the planets to align in order to hit the shorts, one announcement after the other, with a few days/weeks between each. There’s so much waiting in the wings, it’s incredible.

I don’t care too much about the SP right now, Tesla’s dominance is virtually guaranteed from here, it’s just how long it will take.

I say B)... hopefully I'll earn a million dollars!
 
Ok, if you want to with an ultimate conversion formulation, then you have the problem of not being able to compute this rate for a really long time. You basically need to wait until some 450k reservation holders have had enough time to have taken delivery of whatever version of a Model 3 they may be interested in. Do you like actuarial problems? At best you can try to model the conversion process to try to estimate ultimate dispositions. Good luck getting that right. So if some bonehead asks Elon what that conversion rate is currently, how is Musk to respond to that? Is he supposed to give his projections of how the numbers will land some 18 to 24 months from now?

I don't know why you're looking for nits to pick here. I simply pointed out that Reciprocity's cash flow analysis relied on an assumption that 100% of reservations convert to orders, and that his results would be impacted by the use of a different assumption. Defining conversion rates and computing them are really beside the point. I took no position on what response Elon should make to boneheads.

As it happens, I have been a professional actuary for the past several decades. Small world, eh?
 
...Finally, as always, Morgan Stanley attributes zero value to Tesla Energy.

I'm glad you mentioned that. M3 production is all anyone seems to be talking about, but battery packs and solar panels/roofs are going to go nuts in the next year or two, especially with California's new requirement for new homes. Tesla Energy has proven how much they can save institutional customers, especially down under and now California is giving them the opportunity to show how much they save homeowners on their power bills, way more than the cost of the panels or roofs themselves.

While I live in Washington State, it's on the desert side where the sun shines 300 days a year and if I ever have the opportunity to build a new home, it will definitely have a Tesla solar roof installed, along with a Powerwall and a charger for my Model 3 (hey, I am talking the future here). Tesla Energy will have a significant impact on their bottom line in the fairly near future and that needs to be taken into consideration, as they have no significant competition there and probably won't for several years.
 
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If you are going to talk authoritatively on this subject, it'd be nice to know your credentials, such as the year when you passed your Series 7 and 63 exams and became a licensed professional capable of giving well grounded financial advice.

You did pass them, correct? Very tough exams, many times harder than those for MBA.

pdq,

This is just a message board, I'm here to express my view for fun. Not to give financial advice or to convince anyone. If my words seem to be irritating to you, please do add me to your ignore list, that's what that button is for. Life is short, don't wast time on my posts. Take it easy.
 
I hope the sale-price is not over yet and we get another morning dip tomorrow as I just got some dry powder to invest.
Let's see if I can still catch the low 280s tomorrow.
I would aim for high $270s. 2 past dips in Apr/May have both reached into that range. Also lower BB is at $277s, we may need to touch it before reversing. Have fun taking shorts' monies
 
I’m curious what people here think about the “reorganization” part. Are those people really being fired or they just decided to quit because Elon is micromanaging? Or is it because Tesla is trying to cut down expenses. I honestly do not have a good feeling about this “reorganization” since it’s really bad for the morale. And I have never heard a corporation that has this many high level people being shown to the exit in such a short time span.
 
I’m curious what people here think about the “reorganization” part. Are those people really being fired or they just decided to quit because Elon is micromanaging? Or is it because Tesla is trying to cut down expenses. I honestly do not have a good feeling about this “reorganization” since it’s really bad for the morale. And I have never heard a corporation that has this many high level people being shown to the exit in such a short time span.

Elon has talked about this a couple of times in the past few months. He is getting rid of under performing and useless contractors, and trimming middle management. I am guessing he thinks Tesla has undergone a “bozo explosion” (Guy Kawasaki - How to Prevent a Bozo Explosion)
 
I’m curious what people here think about the “reorganization” part. Are those people really being fired or they just decided to quit because Elon is micromanaging? Or is it because Tesla is trying to cut down expenses. I honestly do not have a good feeling about this “reorganization” since it’s really bad for the morale. And I have never heard a corporation that has this many high level people being shown to the exit in such a short time span.

Tesla is rated 5th on LinkedIn's list of the top companies professionals want to work for.

Tesla has no trouble attracting the very best -- people like JB Straubel, Franz von Holzhausen, Jerome Guillen and Andrej Karpathy.

It is also an extremely demanding place to work. That will lead to some attrition, some voluntary some not. I don't see that changing any time soon.

1. Amazon

2. Alphabet

3. Facebook

4. Salesforce

5. Tesla

6. Apple

7. Comcast NBCUniversal

8. The Walt Disney Company

9. Oracle

10. Netflix

LinkedIn's top companies of 2018 include Amazon, Facebook and Tesla
LinkedIn Top Companies 2018: Where the U.S. wants to work now
 
I’m curious what people here think about the “reorganization” part. Are those people really being fired or they just decided to quit because Elon is micromanaging? Or is it because Tesla is trying to cut down expenses. I honestly do not have a good feeling about this “reorganization” since it’s really bad for the morale. And I have never heard a corporation that has this many high level people being shown to the exit in such a short time span.

Musk is back and he’s micromanaging. There’s been reports of him walking around the GF with his team/entourage holding notepads/clipboards (as he points, they write). Although he’s solved many GF bottlenecks while there, he is the very last person you want hanging around in your zip code; this goes with suppliers as well. If you were an employee or supplier that he’s looking into, you want him out of the factory and away from your city as soon as possible. The guy is willing to cut ties with you in a heartbeat if things aren’t done right. My friend tells me that he always knows when Musk is in the building, because the air is turned down to unusually cold atmosphere. He could be a warm and fuzzy guy and all, but at the end of the day, he’s a businessman, a first principled kind of guy. Dead weight during times like these won’t be tolerated. I’m glad he didn’t fire anyone, instead he let them leave with dignity.
 
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