TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ValueAnalyst]

Correct.

No. Please see twtr quarterly financials here: TWTR Income Statement

 

[CuriousSunbird]

“Tesla has roughly half a million reservations”
— 5/4/18
Elon Musk on Twitter

I believe I read a more exact number right around then, but that’s what I found with a quick search.

There was a more exact number released - "exceeding 450,000" released the day before in the shareholder letter, but it was referring back to end Q1.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I

I would emphasize working capital over cash balance

Working capital is expected to be negative for a company with negative cash conversion cycle, which in fact is highly positive for a growth company like Tesla.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

What time is the share holder's meeting tomorrow?

Dan

 

[larmor]

TSLA's rise today seems to be in line with the broader markets, not Tesla specific. So the market completely glossed over the earth-shattering news of a wholly-owned Gigafactory in China, breaking decades of policy, and 11,000 TE projects in Puerto Rico. I just don't get some people. Most of them, actually...

The market again ignores TE and inroads into the largest middle class consumer market around because it does not fit with the carefully crafted media narrative for Tesla.

 

[wipster]

Electrek: "Like Tesla said, that’s also without an important display fleet. I also think that demand is going to increase with deliveries as more people are going to see the vehicle on the road and in the hands of their friends and family. The Tesla community is known for being ambassadors."

That's exactly how my wife and I see ourselves, and we're living our lives as though we're Tesla embassy personnel. Anybody tired of hearing about Tesla had better run when they see us coming, because our mojo is on fire after receiving our Model 3 last week and driving it like we stole it around our part of the state. This car is truly an engineering and manufacturing marvel. That fact simply cannot be overstated. The Game is Over for ICE.

I concur wholeheartedly. Has there ever been a product or service that has established a respected brand name and almost unprecedented demand solely by publicity, word-of-mouth, and of course a quality product that substantially changes transportation, all without any advertising and minimal marketing? Not only that, but they're doing all of this while competing against two established industries that feel extremely threatened by them. The iPhone is similar of course, but it came from an established company and brand with considerable advertising as well. I honestly can't think of anything that compares. It truly is amazing that the best advertising tool Tesla has is the owners of their cars, as the couple above describe and it doesn't cost a penny.

Whether Tesla succeeds or goes the way of the Tucker, their story will make one hell of a case study for future MBA students. My bet is on unmitigated success...

 

[vinvin218]

Updated from thestreet.com Here's What the Chinese Government Just Said About Tesla's New Gigafactory

My tweet earlier about the same story : vincent on Twitter

 

[Zaxxon]

I know this was a discussion topic earlier, but no. Please see twtr financials here: TWTR Income Statement

Thanks for that. I've seen this topic bandied about over and over and never saw a link to the criteria from the horse's mouth. So I just grabbed it:

Financial Viability. Eligibility differs depending on the index:
• S&P Total Market Index. There is no financial viability requirement for index eligibility.
• S&P Composite 1500. The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally
Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations)
should be positive as should the most recent quarter. For equity real estate investment trusts
(REITs), financial viability is based on GAAP earnings and/or Funds From Operations (FFO), if
reported. FFO is a measure commonly used in equity REIT analysis

Source

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Thanks for that. I've seen this topic bandied about over and over and never saw a link to the criteria fun the source. So I just grabbed it:

Source

Yes, I had used the same link in July of 2017 for my article. Then a few members here were adamant about it being four consecutive profitable quarters, but now TWTR’s addition after only two profitable quarters proves, once and for all, that it is in fact TTM profitability that matters.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Y

No. Please see twtr quarterly financials here: TWTR Income Statement

You're right - it seems to be positive earnings for the aggregated previous 4 quarters.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Yes, I had used the same link in July of 2017 for my article. Then a few members here were adamant about it being four consecutive profitable quarters, but now TWTR’s addition after only two profitable quarters proves, once and for all, that it is in fact TTM profitability that matters.

Investopedia may be the source of the erroneous belief.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

There was a more exact number released - "exceeding 450,000" released the day before in the shareholder letter, but it was referring back to end Q1.

Which is why I cited the 5/4/18 tweet about roughly half a million reservations. Which means net reservations were stable between end of Q1 and 5/4/18.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Which is why I cited the 5/4/18 tweet about roughly half a million reservations. Which means net reservations were stable between end of Q1 and 5/4/18.

which seems to contradict the Second Measure data (depending on the meaning of "roughly")

 

[Dennisj00]

I don't think they "owe" it, but it would make the analysis easier.

And you’re an analyst for who?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

S&P 500 by March.

Place your bets accordingly.

 

[RobStark]

Whether Tesla succeeds or goes the way of the Tucker

Tucker delivered a grand total of 51 cars.

Years after going out of business collectors recovered a few more from inside the factory in partial build and completed them.

 

[Singer3000]

Working capital is expected to be negative for a company with negative cash conversion cycle, which in fact is highly positive for a growth company like Tesla.

Indeed. I thought the bear criticism was all about Tesla being a cashflow disaster? It’s a strong positive if Tesla can finance its aggressive growth from creditors and upfront customer receipts, rather than debt or fresh equity. I’ll be focused on the working capital numbers too, but seemingly for opposite reasons to Mr Sunbird.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Tucker delivered a grand total of 51 cars.

Years after going out of business collectors recovered a few more from inside the factory in partial build and completed them.

Good point, short's probably rather claim similarities between Tesla and Twentieth Century Motor Car Corporation (better known by the vehicle they never brought to market, the Dale)

 

[mongo]

Y

You're right - it seems to be positive earnings for the aggregated previous 4 quarters.

Even that is not a hard requirement (assuming the standard meaning of should vs must).

https://us.spindices.com/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf

 

[RobStark]

Good point, short's probably rather claim similarities between Tesla and Twentieth Century Motor Car Corporation (better known by the vehicle they never brought to market, the Dale)

Kaiser-Frazer later Kaiser Motors delivered a grand total of ~750k cars.

Henry J. Kaiser was one of the 20th Century's great industrialist. Brash and extremely confident he jumped from industry to industry. From camera shops,construction,paving streets,shipbuilding to automobiles. He just lacked Elon's scientific-engineering bonafides.

When he wanted to give employees healthcare benefits the local hospitals tried to "Russian" him.

He started his own hospital and bragged to other industrialist how much he was saving. They asked if their workers could join his plan aka HMO. Today the last surviving business of Henry J. Kaiser is Kaiser Permanente.