TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[CyberDutchie]

Am I missing some bad news? The tanking is nutz this morning.

What the hell is wrong with TSLA

1.5 shares dumped in one trade

 

[sundaymorning]

Good to hear from JB

Tesla CTO JB Straubel reveals 1 GWh milestone in energy storage projects

 

[Tslynk67]

Am I missing some bad news? The tanking is nutz this morning.

Perfectly normal TSLA price movements. Should smooth-out once this M3 ramp is better defined.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Am I missing some bad news? The tanking is nutz this morning.

Probably the “Tesla refunded 1/4 of all Model 3 reservations” BS. Good day to buy since the news that Porsche and BMW can’t sell their cars in Europe until Spring 2019 hasn’t hit the news cycle yet. Nor has the Tesla energy news.

 

[Drax7]

A break of this magnitude is accompanied with information.
Could be many things including An analyst downgrade report
we are not aware of
Bullish meeting tonite preempted by bearish analyst

 

[Lessmog]

We should also be a bit worried about the ability of a third party to snoop into "anonymized" data and be able to spy on as specific vendor, Tesla in this case. These data should be used only for general research purposes, not to reveal non-public information on any specific counterparty. So basically this whole report is a violation of Tesla's privacy. As a bank employee, I would be fired immediately for this sort of data breach (summarizing transactional activity of a named client).

This is a regular occurrence in finance and market research. Banks and retailers sell their anonymized databases for big buck so that agencies can create reports and sell them for even bigger buck. There are companies that gather anonymized databases from multiple big retailers and then merge them together trying to identify buying behaviours of customers. Those are worth millions.

I'm not surprised, but this largely confirms my belief that government has been way too lax regarding private corporations collecting data on their customers. A crackdown is necessary, with broad bans on this kind of thing.

Maybe US should start following the Old World of EU in this respect? I'm referring to the EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) which was late out of the gate but still several laps ahead.

Nah, that would be bad for big bizniz. Or maybe the old geezers are starting to fall off? Dave Koch just quit.

 

[rameshbende]

Baught some shares in the morning. May be its 300 resistance level was not breached so technicals kicked in or bears are defending 300.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Probably the “Tesla refunded 1/4 of all Model 3 reservations” BS. Good day to buy since the news that Porsche and BMW can’t sell their cars in Europe until Spring 2019 hasn’t hit the news cycle yet. Nor has the Tesla energy news.

My initial reaction to the BMW/Porsche news is for Tesla to send as many MS/X to EU ASAP. But consider US tax incentive phase out, Tesla will likely keep as many MS/X as possible (esp. higher priced configs) for US market in Q3 and Q4. Maybe they can do a Q1'19 push in EU with MS/X, and also sell lots of M3D/P. It would allow them to dial down the $35K M3 mix in Q1'19, increase the ASP/GM, increase the chance of Q1'19 being profitable, and trailing 4Q (Q2'18-Q1'19) being profitable, SP500 inclusion, more CapEx to spend on next GF in China, all that good stuff.

 

[Irishjugg]

Apparently Whitney Tilson thinks $TSLA is a decent short right now
This is the guy who shorted $TSLA at $30 in 2013 and covered at 500% higher in 2014
Great contrarian indicator
I would be going super long on this news alone
Plus the 2 hourly charts look fabulous
I bet tomorrow is the last day sub $300
Shorts had their chance and they blew it
$TSLA longs will take over now

So far this has aged poorly.

Just a reminder to new people here, predicting the short term movements of a volatile stock is basically impossible most of the time, no matter the conviction and excitement in the person making the prediction.

Long term is much more doable

 

[JRP3]

All of us on this forum should try to be nice to each other.

I am being nice by pointing out to those who may not know the history of his bad calls and over the top bullishness. He starts posting his "TSLA to the moon" garbage and starts getting a bunch of thumbs up and hearts and some newer members and lurkers may get caught up in his enthusiasm and make some bad decisions, as has happened in the past. I think he's worse than the bears for this very reason and I feel a responsibility to point it out.

 

[Causalien]

All of us on this forum should try to be nice to each other. It's obvious everything posted is opinion, not advice. Even if it were advice, it's each individual's responsibility to decide taking the advice or not. When we hear something, try to think if the reasoning makes sense, not blindly follow someone else's opinion/action. Nothing is 100% sure in investment or trading, anyone who think he can repeatedly predict price movement with success will be humbled in the end, this is especially true for short term predictions. Anyone can get wrong, at various degree.

If we start to treat others harshly, some people will leave and not come back. It's unfortunate over the years I saw quite a few smart investors/traders left the forum. I guess some of them got frustrated. It's a loss for the forum.

TT007 made good calls in the past too. He was very bullish in 2016, especially in late 2016 when the stock was between $180~$200. Also, I remember in March 2017, the stock was pulling back ~$40 from 280. Many people were worried. One day TT007 posted something like "the stock made a intraday double bottom just above 240, this could be the turning point for the next leg up." He was precisely right, both the timing and the move. It moved from $241 to $386 in 3 and half months.

I used to say don't use leverage, buy and hold shares, keep adding on every pullback. Now I hesitate to say that again. Because I think there is a good chance we get big rally in the next few years, will those people blame me for missing the leveraged gain? On the other hand, every time the members on this forum pile up on short term options, we get a disappointing result. So I hesitate to say anything.

The most important part is to keep learning, make yourself a better investor and/or trader. Everyone's situation is different, someone with a lot of other assets and constant cashflow can use an aggressive approach. Some others should be very conservative and stay diversified. Each investor should honestly assess his/her own situation and personality. Write down the proper action you should take, and follow it. If you have questions, ask, members on this forum will try to help. There are quite a few very experienced/intelligent members on this forum. In the end, make your own decisions.

Let's keep this forum a great place. I genuinely hope everyone get great investment results while supporting Tesla.

Just to point out that using leverage on stock this late in the business cycle is the wrong thing to do from book management perspective. It is however, a good idea to use leverage on interest bearing products.

You can still use leverage and hit it bigif you time it right, but that's a small percentage reserved for ppl with oracle like prescience.

 

[dmckinstry]

I am being nice by pointing out to those who may not know the history of his bad calls and over the top bullishness. He starts posting his "TSLA to the moon" garbage and starts getting a bunch of thumbs up and hearts and some newer members and lurkers may get caught up in his enthusiasm and make some bad decisions, as has happened in the past. I think he's worse than the bears for this very reason and I feel a responsibility to point it out.

This is one of the reasons we need more options in our voting. Sometimes I like what is being said, but don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. This is the case with some/many of TT007's posts. I'm stuck with choosing like or disagree, or having to reply to clarify my opinion. Likewise, there are posts that I don't like with which I have to agree.

 

[W84M3]

Just bought in @ 288 for first time in 2 years (buy and hold). I also bought at the start of Feb 2016 so this must be the bottom

Go TSLA

 

[Chickenlittle]

I am being nice by pointing out to those who may not know the history of his bad calls and over the top bullishness. He starts posting his "TSLA to the moon" garbage and starts getting a bunch of thumbs up and hearts and some newer members and lurkers may get caught up in his enthusiasm and make some bad decisions, as has happened in the past. I think he's worse than the bears for this very reason and I feel a responsibility to point it out.

Not all his fault. I walked under ladder at the open and pet two black cats this am. Your concern for others is admirable but everyone makes their own decisions.

 

[Tslynk67]

This is one of the reasons we need more options in our voting. Sometimes I like what is being said, but don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. This is the case with some/many of TT007's posts. I'm stuck with choosing like or disagree, or having to reply to clarify my opinion. Likewise, there are posts that I don't like with which I have to agree.

The thing is, when you know the truth behind the FUD, then 007's predictions aren't at all unlikely. On several occasions when he's posted a big cheer-leader post, I've totally agreed with it and fundamentally is should be the case, but then inexplicably the SP heads south instead.

 

[JRP3]

Not all his fault. I walked under ladder at the open and pet two black cats this am. Your concern for others is admirable but everyone makes their own decisions.

Of course, I just prefer them to be informed decisions.

 

[Starno]

Tesla is just still " concerning " for most investors right now, thus this volatility and pretty much overall negative sentiment.

" The market " is concerned about Tesla.

Don't think you need to look much further, or any specific news.

 

[larmor]

The thing is, when you know the truth behind the FUD, then 007's predictions aren't at all unlikely. On several occasions when he's posted a big cheer-leader post, I've totally agreed with it and fundamentally is should be the case, but then inexplicably the SP heads south instead.

Not sure if I agree with this. it is amazing that the market totally ignores the paradigm shift that Tesla presents. Every time some article downgrades it is really an opportunity to buy. Think about it changing the Paradigm of automobiles who is at threat, oil and traditional car manufacturers.
Changing the Paradigm of energy with solar and storage products i e a stationary battery is such a good product to sell it is by definition stuck in one place. It can timeshift Peak loads of the current outdated grid system and peaker plants.
Development of fully self-driving cars using narrow AI if it was any other company such as GM Uber excetera they get huge Market approval but Tesla it's no acknowledgement.

Compared to other companies in the past five to ten years changing the Paradigm of Telecommunications, TV, DVDs, and online selling.

Tesla is selling a product, Tesla is selling the future and changing how we use and understand energy.

They are not selling advertisement spots on their webpage...

 

[tander]

The only way to beat the game is to hold long term. If an ordinary person trades on weekly or monthly time horizon, and the hedge funds know things a week or month in advance, guess who's getting his pocket picked. If he holds for a few years, then the advantage of knowing some news a week or month in advance would have much smaller influence.

If an ordinary person is willing/able to spend 40+ hours a week researching/running numbers or maybe less/more time depending on their experience, they certainly can beat many of the hedge funds and the market. Most hedge funds are not that impressive or as competitive as they sound. And the amount of good and free information you can get with an internet connection today is pretty amazing if you can sort through the bad info. But then again if a person spends that much time trading then they pretty much have started their own little hedge fund. However it is a lot easier, more practical, and less time consuming for most to just go long term, it is much easier to watch big slow waves build on the horizon than predict little ripples that are gone in a moment.

 

[Starno]

If an ordinary person is willing/able to spend 40+ hours a week researching/running numbers or maybe less/more time depending on their experience, they certainly can beat many of the hedge funds and the market. Most hedge funds are not that impressive or as competitive as they sound. And the amount of good and free information you can get with an internet connection today is pretty amazing if you can sort through the bad info. But then again if a person spends that much time trading then they pretty much have started their own little hedge fund. However it is a lot easier, more practical, and less time consuming for most to just go long term, it is much easier to watch big slow waves build on the horizon than predict little ripples that are gone in a moment.

I'd say it's also the only viable way for the majority of people.
99,99% of "private day traders" don't make money, or not in an efficient way (they don't beat the market) or they do but barely beat it by a few percents while spending massive amount of hours.
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