It’s anyone’s guess but the general consensus is that it will dip further tomorrow. Hopefully everyone backs up their truck once the market settles after open
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bdy0627
Active Member
Yes, a bottom has not been established with the markets yet, and that goes for TSLA too. Everything is below recent supports, so anything goes for tomorrow. I thought about buying SPY puts for tomorrow, but I'm guessing the premiums are now through the roof, so it wouldn't be worth it unless there is another HUGE drop. All we can do at this point is to tighten seat belts and brace for impact. This is a wild ride with no ending in sight yet. When the bottom does come, though, there will be some HUGE opportunities for those who have the resources and willingness to be contrarian.
There's tons of cash on the sidelines that's going to be invested when they'll feel it.
Ray Dalio: Recent market declines are just 'minor corrections,' still lots of cash to buy the dip
The fundamental economy is going really strong.
The question is when will investors feel it ? Whether it's tomorrow or when the market will have lost 20% ? It's anyone guess.
Apparently Krugman agrees although he worries about the stewardship of a new Fed chair because Yellen was a known quantity able to handle a very volatile situation. His comment on others in the administration is less sanguine.
Opinion | Has Trumphoria Finally Hit a Wall?
sundaymorning
Active Member
After seeing the market tank -1500 and then rebounding 50% back to about to -750 I thought the worst was behind us, so I bought some at around 336s (boy was I wrong). Looks like tomo will be another red day, but I doubt it will be as bad as today. As mentioned above, the feds will likely take this dramatic pullback into consideration and tighten less.
I made the mistake and tried to buy the bottom, looks as though I'll have only compounded my losses. Fingers crossed that this is short lived. For now, tomorrow looks like its going to be rough.
I’ve made the exact same mistake. Bought more shares at 335.5, thinking that this is the end of the drop, only to see that it closed at 333.25. It’s literally impossible to call the bottom especially in a market like this.
bdy0627
Active Member
I'm guilty too. Added some calls today and in hindsight, kinda wish I still had the dry powder. That Algo ETF flash drop, or whatever it was, was crazy. In hindsight, we always wish we had gotten out near the top. Later, we wish we had increased leverage near the bottom. My feeling is that in 4 months, we will wish we had added more TSLA anywhere along here if we could have. As TSLA investors, we see this kind of volatility frequently, so it's not really that out of the ordinary for us. But the rest of the market is definitely not used to this. It's pretty scary for many investors, especially those who are retired or dealing with near term calls.
Here's a good post I came across on TMF:
Careful now, we may not be done. A good flash crash ends in a day and with a big drop AND big comeback, we finished at the lows for most indexes (bad) and futures show DOW opening 1000 down Tuesday. Don't be too confident. If you have cash, maybe move in, in thrids and over time. It is highly unlikely to jump to new highs in a day or two, leaving you sad that you didn't catch the knife.
Here's a good post I came across on TMF:
Careful now, we may not be done. A good flash crash ends in a day and with a big drop AND big comeback, we finished at the lows for most indexes (bad) and futures show DOW opening 1000 down Tuesday. Don't be too confident. If you have cash, maybe move in, in thrids and over time. It is highly unlikely to jump to new highs in a day or two, leaving you sad that you didn't catch the knife.
I wonder if the Trump Bottom will be lower than the Speigle Bottom.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Boy, I thought I was bad:-( This article headlines executive compensation and ultimately takes a pot shot at “Autopilot.” New Executive Compensation Plan A Signal To Sell Tesla
Disappointing:-(
Disappointing:-(
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Yes, the world is in a different place today on so many levels, but two years ago, almost to the week, the Stock market made a massive dive. Unfortunately, it was at the same time my wife was retiring, so decisions at that time were less than stellar. Bottom line, within a very short time, once the correction bottomed, it rebounded quickly.
I am not an advisor, nor is this trading advice ~ just sayin’ “look B4. . .” Me, I am scrabbling to find some of that dry powder
I am not an advisor, nor is this trading advice ~ just sayin’ “look B4. . .” Me, I am scrabbling to find some of that dry powder
The Shorts currently do not have much, if any, ammo available to take advantage of the market correction so somebody has to step in and "help".
I too pulled the trigger a touch early today. Oh well, it's not the end of the world. Hopefully, I'm able to add more before the rebound.
That being said I am positioned with a buy limit around 332* or so... which would fit with a possible opening of 340-341 and 8-9 dollar drop to close at 332.
BTW took advantage of the drop to add more shares today. Will continue to add if the price is right...
*announcing as a courtesy for my fellow TMCers who asked to know where my buy limit is, so they can set theirs a bit higher...
A bit of an older post, but I had kept that buy limit in place, until this weekend. I did the same thing you did and raised it to 335.xx. Then again I did want to get some more shares...
FWIW, my next buy limit is 323.xx
I’ll keep you posted for the next one after that.... if it keeps going.
PS—I don’t count after hours, since I don’t trade around those times.
Could be worse, imagine you'd bought BitCoin when it was up around $19k
Interesting that this market correction is coming right when we get the 17Q4ER, will this amplify any potential drop if the ER is perceived negatively, will it nullify a potential TSLA rally in case the ER is very positive, will the wider market rally in the coming days counteracting a poor ER or would a good ER ride the wave upwards with interest?
Of course, regular observers will point out that TSLA SP often defies all logic following major news...
Of course, regular observers will point out that TSLA SP often defies all logic following major news...
bdy0627
Active Member
I think it's probably safe to say that any positive reaction to the ER will be limited by the overall very fearful/negative market sentiment. In this environment, I don't think there is much chance that the stock suddenly takes off on Thursday. I think it also mutes a negative response since we have been falling for about a week now, plus short interest is down substantially apparently for the vote on Musk's comp plan. I think this adds up to a pretty minimal response to the ER this week. On the other hand, I could be wrong.
bdy0627
Active Member
I plan to add some more TSLA today. Splitting my adding into thirds has served well in the past. I added yesterday, will add today, and possibly tomorrow. Since you can't time the bottom perfectly, that strategy usually suffices. So far, I have not regretted this approach. Later, I have only wished I had added more.
I’m considering the opposite strategy. I may sell most of my TSLA share today and wait to see how the earnings go first. I feel like either way the earnings go, the stock will tank and it’s highly likely that the earnings won’t go as well as expected as usually. Any thoughts on this?
There has been a record breaking bull market for the entire life of the TSLA stock. TSLA traders have been constantly rewarded with the "buying the dip" approach. That is not normal. That shouldn't be expected to be normal. And it should be assumed that it will eventually end. Therefor, it should also be assumed that this kind of trained instinct with respect to trading this stock will need to be retrained for a market that trades in a more normal way... with consistent volatility instead of zero. Meaning, if you maintain the same tactics you've been using on TSLA, you will eventually get burned.Yes, the world is in a different place today on so many levels, but two years ago, almost to the week, the Stock market made a massive dive. Unfortunately, it was at the same time my wife was retiring, so decisions at that time were less than stellar. Bottom line, within a very short time, once the correction bottomed, it rebounded quickly.
I am not an advisor, nor is this trading advice ~ just sayin’ “look B4. . .” Me, I am scrabbling to find some of that dry powder
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