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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Bad, if true.

Investopedia: Front Running

Definitely not true about IB, but true about virtually every other broker.

Just google “SEC 606 report and <any broker name>” and you can see the proof of where your broker routes it’s orders...IB is the only broker I know where it shows all exchanges and ECNs as where customer orders are routed. Every other broker sends your orders to HFT firms and ‘Internalizers’ (Citadel, Susquehanna, UBS Market Maker, Two Sigma, etc.) who buy the order flow from them to front run you in milliseconds as discussed very eloquently in Michael Lewis’ Flash Boys book...TD Ameritrade’s 606 report cleverly says it sends most orders to TD Clearing or something like that but then if you then google “SEC 606 and TD Clearing” then you will see where they really sell your orders...in fact, payment for orderflow I believe was disclosed on a TD 10k in 2017 for being 1/3 or 1/4 of their revenue or something like that...if that’s how much they get paid you have to imagine that these massively profitable HFT firms are making a lot more off of buying those orders than what they pay TD and other brokers.

Also, ask the question: WHY IS IB THE ONLY BROKER THAT LETS ANY CLIENT DIRECT ROUTE ANY ORDERS TO IEX IF THE CLIENT WANTS TO DO THAT? (AND AT NO EXTRA COST BY IB)

if IB was front running your orders or selling your orderow they would not allow customers to do that, this is why no other broker will allow its clients to direct route orders to IEX.
For anyone who doesn’t know, IEX is the Investor’s Exchange founded by Brad Katsayuma (sp?) who is the main character in the Flash Boys book.
 
From pre-recession to recession low years, Chinese vehicle production shot up from about 5-6 million to 18 million (in a global market of about 80 million vehicles). So, while, it may be that global sales were down only about 7% those years, it's worth thinking about how this massive differences between US and Chinese sales changes impacted the two companies that went bankrupt. GM and Chrysler were right at the top of those impacted by a 40% drop in vehicle sales in the U.S.. Though they both undoubtably benefitted from the growth in China, it wasn't of the same scale as the hit they took from the drop in US sales.

Total US Sales

2007........16,154,064
2008........13,245,718
2009.........10,431,510

Total US sales fall of 19% were part of the cause of GM and Chrysler bankruptcy.

Total sales fall of 36% in 2009 from 2007 was in large part caused by the turmoil of GM,Chrysler, and supplier bankruptcies.

GM and Chrysler didn't declare bankruptcy until June 1, 2009 because the Bush administration wanted to punt the ball to the next administration. By June 2008 it was clear Detroit needed a bailout but the Bush administration only gave stop gap temporary relief. That GM and Chrysler had disproportionate sales losses is because they had crappy cars. This is not analogous to Tesla in the near future if we enter a Great Recession.

Chrysler had very little sales in China. They went bankrupt in large part because they were perpetually near bankruptcy for decades.

GM went bankrupt because they did not have the foresight of Ford to either save or borrow a rainy day fund before the Great Recession.
 
Total US Sales

2007........16,154,064
2008........13,245,718
2009.........10,431,510

Total US sales fall of 19% were part of the cause of GM and Chrysler bankruptcy.

Total sales fall of 36% in 2009 from 2007 was in large part caused by the turmoil of GM,Chrysler, and supplier bankruptcies.

GM and Chrysler didn't declare bankruptcy until June 1, 2009 because the Bush administration wanted to punt the ball to the next administration. By June 2008 it was clear Detroit needed a bailout but the Bush administration only gave stop gap temporary relief. That GM and Chrysler had disproportionate sales losses is because they had crappy cars. This is not analogous to Tesla in the near future if we enter a Great Recession.

Chrysler had very little sales in China. They went bankrupt in large part because they were perpetually near bankruptcy for decades.

GM went bankrupt because they did not have the foresight of Ford to either save or borrow a rainy day fund before the Great Recession.

Agree, this has little relevance to Tesla when considering their products vs. GM and Chrysler's. In fact, my post was actually written to try to assuage any concern about Tesla's level of vulnerability, and point out that GM and Chrysler were impacted by far more than a 7% drop in the markets where they did the bulk of their business. Basically, I'm quite confident a 7% drop in across the board vehicle sales in the markets where Tesla does business would be a non-issue for Tesla, and so nothing any Tesla investor needs to have concern about.
 
Falcon Heavy inaugural flight Tuesday... 2017Q4 earnings report Wednesday... busy week for Elon. But he is tweeting space travel posters, so he must be relaxed... I take it as a good sign.

On the contrary, relaxed Elon has meant horrible quarterly reports. But historically, horrible quarterlies have also meant Tesla stock rallying. I expect roughly the same. If so pretty numbers but a resilient stock price.
 
2008 was a near epic collapse driven by bad debt that had been securitized.

Do you see any factors in the macro economy that could have similar substantial effect? In the US, student loans are at record levels and consumer debt via credit cards is pretty high, but is the risk in this debt positioned to damage the structure of the economy?

I don't think there will be similar damage to the structure of the economy but I think 2 things are risky :

- 1 : the level of citizens dissatisfaction and nationalism in the world is at records highs, given the good economy we're experiencing that's dangerous. Imagine what will happen, politically, if unemployment rise a bit, and wage stop growing....

-2 : We already had 9 years of good time (i mean expansion), we will experience a drop in the stock market. 30%+ . When the interest rates will rise at a faster pace than what is already discounted.
 
Pulitzer had some good analysis from his weekend video. Bull markets don't die out of old age. They die when there is a recession. We are not heading for a recession. Economic indicators continue to improve. This drop is a painful but healthy market correction.

I'm not talking now btw.
2018 is going to be a huge year for market I think. A lot of cash is still on the sidelines.

I'm talking 2-3 years out.
 
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50000. Solar plus battery installations is mind blowing.

It really is impressive. I would like to see the details of how Tesla is charging for these and how many homes they are targeting to complete per day/week/year.

South Australia (SA) is blazing trails here. I am hopeful SA electricity prices will soon start showing the benefits of the big battery and this initiative.
 
It really is impressive. I would like to see the details of how Tesla is charging for these and how many homes they are targeting to complete per day/week/year.

South Australia (SA) is blazing trails here. I am hopeful SA electricity prices will soon start showing the benefits of the big battery and this initiative.


I read it was a 800 million dollars project over 4 years (until 2022). Not sure if it's correct or not though.
South Australia, Tesla partner for $800 million virtual power plant
 
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I believe its over 4 years with the first year being a test for 1000 homes. Its a great proof of concept, however, over 4 years its a drop in the bucket.

It is also only one project, apparently worth almost a billion dollars.

I expect there will be more like this. And as the old expression goes, a billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.
 
It is also only one project, apparently worth almost a billion dollars.

I expect there will be more like this. And as the old expression goes, a billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.


Exact.
But people still have to understand that even if a project this size would happen every day for an entire year. This wouldn't even represent 1% of what's needed to power the world electricity consumption.


So we need to step up the efforts to raise awareness.

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Over the course of the next decade, we need thousands upon thousands of similar projects, and even bigger ones.
 
Exact.
But people still have to understand that even if a project this size would happen every day for an entire year. This wouldn't even represent 1% of what's needed to power the world electricity consumption.


So we need to step up the efforts to raise awareness.

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Over the course of the next decade, we need thousands upon thousands of similar projects, and even bigger ones.

Well, 1% of global energy consumption is a big number ;-)
Regarding raising awareness, I tried to do my miniscul part yesterday, publishing this.

I am very enthusiastic about Tesla Energy and I think that everyone should know and understand what we can achieve when innovative companies like Tesla and sage goverments want to do stuff together.
Unfortunately, sometimes Musk is too good a PR and people misinterpret him, thinking he's really some sort of Tony Stark/mad genius playboy billionaire (he's a bit of that, but not only).

Anyway, every project like this will decrease costs for the next ones.
Remember that we had the giant Sout Australia batteries in few months, from tweet to finish.
 
The wacko start to today's market may be returning, I hope not. Further, whether this intelligence explains today's market manager's risk assessment I doubt. But I can anticipate the possibility, possibility only, that another big political shock to the market will come if Rick Gates is flipping for a plea deal with the Moeller investigation. Evidence: According to Rachel Maddow, Gates, the business partner of Manafort, has let go his old lawyers and hired a new one who has success negotiating high profile peoples' plea deals. She based her report on a Wall Street Journal story (which I have been unable to confirm).

Edit: Sorry for the political inference and for seeking a rational explanation for current market behavior. Not an advice, just an idea to keep in mind as things move forward.
 
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