TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[joefee]

Good ER ..... but status quo until TSLA turns cash flow positive ... then the jump to $500+

 

[Electrifying]

" Diagnostics architecture has been substantially redesigned for Model 3 in order to reduce physical service visits by more than 50%." Big auto just can't compete with Silicon Valley, at every stage of car's life cycle.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I will sell you my 94 Accord for $750 if you need it. I keep it as a backup in case my Leaf can’t go where I need it until I get my Model 3...

I got a MX 75D in August and just bought a brand new Model S 100 D 10 days ago and crashed it
currently in repair shop with over $3k estimate

 

[TrendTrader007]

will be buying 2 M3s as soon as AWD available
already got invites on both
plus another M3 reserved
so by end of 2018 will have a MX, a MS and 3 M3s
now only if the stock complies

 

[TrendTrader007]

I guess I will have to keep my day job
sigh!

 

[DurandalAI]

I got a MX 75D in August and just bought a brand new Model S 100 D 10 days ago and crashed it
currently in repair shop with over $3k estimate

No, don’t go crashing them! I mean, we just had a Roadster get blasted into space... We are supply constrained enough as is!

 

[bdy0627]

I guess I will have to keep my day job
sigh!

At least maybe for another 2-3 months.

 

[RobStark]

If they are part owner, what does that do to their lithium purchase costs? (As an offset to the expense)

If you read the article it looks like a complex negotiations between Nutrien Group,SQM, The Chilean Mining Regulatory Agency and Tesla.

It looks like they get "favorable terms" on up to 25% of production in turn Tesla refines the lithium in Chile for export to Nevada. My guess would be low cost government loans for such refining facility.

 

[mongo]

"We are expecting a negative Model 3 gross margin in Q1, while generating positive operating cash flows."

I don't think this is a surprise but it's still disappointing gross margins in Q1 will not only be low but negative for the M3. I think that speaks to how low the production rate is up to this point. If they are able to hit the 2,500 rate by the end of March then presumably gross margins will be much much better in Q2 since the ramp growth affect on margins will be mostly realized in Q2. Thoughts?

Simple thoughts, still recovering from FH launch.

Line costs X to own and run. Each car makes Y profit. So if volume is less than X/Y then negative margin.

 

[mrdoubleb]

"We are expecting a negative Model 3 gross margin in Q1, while generating positive operating cash flows."

I don't think this is a surprise but it's still disappointing gross margins in Q1 will not only be low but negative for the M3. I think that speaks to how low the production rate is up to this point. If they are able to hit the 2,500 rate by the end of March then presumably gross margins will be much much better in Q2 since the ramp growth affect on margins will be mostly realized in Q2. Thoughts?

Someone calculated here once, that we need to hit 2k+/wk for M3 to be in the black. Their expectations for Q2 seem to support this.

 

[dc_h]

no more Model S for me
back to second hand Honda Civic

I’m changing the oil on the old yugo now

 

[Reciprocity]

With the current cash on hand and the rate of cash burn, It seems to me that Tesla will not need to raise funds for Model 3 in 2018. Meaning, they will have enough cash to get model 3 to 5,000/w with the current cash levels and any additional capex would be used to go from 5K to 10K or some other program. Certainly there are a lot of other programs to be launched, including various vehicles and expanding Gigafactory from 30% currently to something closer to 100%. I am fine with raising more money if it is for progress, but I would be less happy if it was to put duct tape on the model 3 problems. I sure hope they provide more color on the production ramp as it is still the only thing that really matters.

 

[bdy0627]

Someone calculated here once, that we need to hit 2k+/wk for M3 to be in the black. Their expectations for Q2 seem to support this.

Thanks! I didn't realize it needed to be that high for positive margins.

 

[JRP3]

it has been a long time since TSLA made a 10% plus move after ER and tonight may be that time
on a side note I'm making a killing on my TWTR march 2018 calls
I got tons of out of money calls on TSLA
if TSLA ramps up after ER then I am quitting my day job

the way TSLA is ramping up into earnings is super exciting and I revise my earlier estimate of gap up after hours from $360 to $375 to $380

15 minutes to go
can't wait
this evening could be a life changing event for me from a financial standpoint

Down in aftermarket at the moment. Classic

 

[Reciprocity]

If you read the article it looks like a complex negotiations between Nutrien Group,SQM, The Chilean Mining Regulatory Agency and Tesla.

It looks like they get "favorable terms" on up to 25% of production in turn Tesla refines the lithium in Chile for export to Nevada. My guess would be low cost government loans for such refining facility.

FUD take.. Tesla goes all in on 25 year old battery tech as new non-lithium batteries are just around the corner.

 

[Hogfighter]

With the current cash on hand and the rate of cash burn, It seems to me that Tesla will not need to raise funds for Model 3 in 2018. Meaning, they will have enough cash to get model 3 to 5,000/w with the current cash levels and any additional capex would be used to go from 5K to 10K or some other program. Certainly there are a lot of other programs to be launched, including various vehicles and expanding Gigafactory from 30% currently to something closer to 100%. I am fine with raising more money if it is for progress, but I would be less happy if it was to put duct tape on the model 3 problems. I sure hope they provide more color on the production ramp as it is still the only thing that really matters.

I expect an analyst to ask that very question

 

[dc_h]

I guess I will have to keep my day job
sigh!

Wait, what? Day job?

 

[avoigt]

Comparing this letter with all other I did read its the best I have seen so far. Way more sun than shadow.

Outlook is strong given 25% margin this year expected for M3 and more important income sustainable positive. Cash looks good too.

With flat expected MS and MX numbers its all about M3 as TE even when they tripple is to small for a substantial impact on numbers.

Therefore I assume that the market wants to still see prove of claim that they achieve the 2.5k end of March. If that happens investors may understand that the stock is cheap and go in. Until then I expect the stock to bounce between $389 and about $310.

Statements in the CC may make a difference dependent if they give hard numbers about weekly production rates as of today that impress.

 

[RobStark]

FUD take.. Tesla goes all in on 25 year old battery tech as new non-lithium batteries are just around the corner.

Super battery is always just around the corner. Kinda like low cost fuel cells.

 

[Jayjs20]

Getting flashbacks of Q3, November 2016