bdy0627
Active Member
I got the same impression about the wording on the M3 ramp guidance. They don't sound real confident about it at this point, which is a bit concerning.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
These two taken together..
- cash balance (3.4B)
- surprisingly low Semi/Roadster deposits
Could be more positive as the Semi reservations are going to be something that happens in chunks over the next year or so. Companies are less likely to give Tesla a free loan. It means the current cash on hand is not being propped up much by reservations and there is room for improvement.
In terms of the Roadster, maybe the price was just too high for the reservation, but with the performance numbers, that thing is going to get some love when it starts touring the shows.
Elon may have learned his lesson after previous overly confident predictions. Keep in mind his recent call for a 50-50 chance of Falcon Heavy success.
bdy0627
Active Member
I hope you're right, but I just don't see that happening from this ER. The M3 ramp continues to have targets but remains uncertain. I think we will see a lot of volatility in the near term.
stef
Member
My impression was that they deliberately tried to disconnect M3 ramp and company health for 2018. In this sense I take it as a positive.
I thought the shareholder letter was great. One minor concern though is cap ex is guided for slightly higher in 2018 than 2017. 2017 they spent $3.4B. So let’s say $3.7B in 2018. Might require a cap raise. But not big deal especially when they’ve guided for quarterly profits to being by end of year and be sustainable.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Assuming we get confident Elon on the CC I expect modest rise this week then blast off next week. MMs need to kill call premiums for Friday and shorts will hold on for a little bit in disbelief/denial.
If we get Elon pausing for 15 seconds again when asked about when 10,000/week happens or not being able to give any detail while 2,500 and 5,000/week Model 3 are on track still then no blast off IMO. From the letter it seems like they have concrete plans for this stuff now though so I am looking forward to hearing some details.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
no more Model S for me
back to second hand Honda Civic
back to second hand Honda Civic
powertoold
Active Member
Hopefully we get non-stuttering Elon like we did the last 2 days!
Yep, super important. I think Elon has learned his lesson to stockpile cahs when possible even if not needed at that moment.
If I'm reading this right, net loss for 2017 was a cool 2.2Bn. With 3.4Bn in the bank they should not have a problem in 2018 even if that was repeated... but that's very unlikely if M3 continues to ramp.
Am I reading this right?
TrendTrader007
Active Member
They expect cash burn to be higher in 2018 than 2017
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla: The New Atacama Debutante - Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile Inc. (NYSE:SQM) | Seeking Alpha
Tesla (TSLA) is reported to be in exploratory talks with the Nutrien Group (NTR) for the purchase of a 32% stake in Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) worth an estimated $5 billion, according to recent news report in the Financial Times (30 January 2018).
_____________________________________________________________________________
SQM is the world's largest and lowest cost lithium producer.
Might need $3.7B + $1.6B = $5.3B
Tesla (TSLA) is reported to be in exploratory talks with the Nutrien Group (NTR) for the purchase of a 32% stake in Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) worth an estimated $5 billion, according to recent news report in the Financial Times (30 January 2018).
_____________________________________________________________________________
SQM is the world's largest and lowest cost lithium producer.
Might need $3.7B + $1.6B = $5.3B
TrendTrader007
Active Member
stock is basically flatlined
i'll take that over anything in red
i'll take that over anything in red
If they are part owner, what does that do to their lithium purchase costs? (As an offset to the expense)
DurandalAI
Member
I will sell you my 94 Accord for $750 if you need it. I keep it as a backup in case my Leaf can’t go where I need it until I get my Model 3...
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I don't have time to listen to CC until later tonight
appreciate all the color on this board
appreciate all the color on this board
bdy0627
Active Member
"We are expecting a negative Model 3 gross margin in Q1, while generating positive operating cash flows."
I don't think this is a surprise but it's still disappointing gross margins in Q1 will not only be low but negative for the M3. I think that speaks to how low the production rate is up to this point. If they are able to hit the 2,500 rate by the end of March then presumably gross margins will be much much better in Q2 since the ramp growth affect on margins will be mostly realized in Q2. Thoughts?
I don't think this is a surprise but it's still disappointing gross margins in Q1 will not only be low but negative for the M3. I think that speaks to how low the production rate is up to this point. If they are able to hit the 2,500 rate by the end of March then presumably gross margins will be much much better in Q2 since the ramp growth affect on margins will be mostly realized in Q2. Thoughts?
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