I screwed up today. The problem is that Puts I sold last month went so negative in value that they were going to cause a margin call. I was watching the stock yesterday when it was 324, and thought about selling a bunch of shares I had bought at 307 to have cash in the account, but I didn't think it would keep dropping. Today as we were falling off the cliff again, I sold the shares at a loss at 297, afraid the stock was going to go lower when I would be forced to sell. Cost me about $30k in losses. I might leverage with LEAPS the next couple weeks to make up for it, or just take my lumps and buy back fewer shares. I'm mad because I never buy high and sell low, but knowing a margin call was coming if the stock kept dropping forced my hand a little. Selling Puts can become a problem if you sell too many and the stock goes down too much....
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They just posted an 8-K clarifying Elon's comments on the earnings call. Their Q1 target of 2.5k/week is NOT dependent on the new Grohmann line arriving in March. The new Grohmann line will add 2-2.5k of additional module capacity.
Just added some more after hours...
Just added some more after hours...
This new 8-k filing puts a very different color on Q1 production and the likelihood of achieving 5k/week at end of Q2. It looks much, much better now. Yesterday, I was thinking 10k Model 3's for Q1 given a late ramp, almost non-existent ramp from the current ~1k/week to 2-2.5k/week. Now 15k+ in the quarter is still possible. Plus, if the ramp was that late, then Tesla would be trying to ramp from 1k to 5k/week in a single quarter, which seemed very unlikely. With this, 5k/week looks far more plausible for end of Q2. We can go back to thinking Tesla will set single month plug-in sales records in the U.S. for every month in 2018.
bdy0627
Active Member
I've been shifting some of my J19s to ITM JUN calls. I am also building up some April calls, but there is higher risk there. I think the risk that the stock continues to drop through April is low whereas the potential for a rise even to $350 is high. On the December dip, I shifted some of my J19s to ITM March calls, which worked well. No guarantee we go up but when the stock is in the $290s, I feel really good about the likelihood it will rise within a month or two.
Dennisj00
Member
Everybody needs to chill. Starman had a great hint with ‘Don’t Panic’. Most of this week has no relevance to TSLA.
If you’re totally upset with Tesla and Elon, I’d suggest you invest in Nissan, after all I made a $100 deposit in 2010 to reserve a 2011 Leaf EV with a range of 85 miles (on a good day). Lots of promises of a charging network, etc.
Updated in 2014 to a Leaf with the same range because we couldn’t afford a T. No charging network unless the crappy third party or ‘Tour de Nissan Dealers’. Did a M3 reservation.
Started looking at a MS realizing a 3 wouldn’t be 35k (when was the last time you bought a No options car- they don’t make them!
Scraped together enough to get a 60S -never looked back AND started buying TSLA in 2016. Nothing fancy, just shares and Long.
Nissan has had 7 years and their 2018 offering is 40k and 150 mile range (again on a VERY good day) - no charging network and certainly flying off the shelf! And their stock has varied $5 or so in the 7 years.
Also, realize that in the month of January, T delivered more long range EVs than Nissan or Chevy. And will continue for MANY months combined ! And soon more than all combined.
And I’ll be happy to buy all of muns shares for $140 to get him to sleep at night!
If you’re totally upset with Tesla and Elon, I’d suggest you invest in Nissan, after all I made a $100 deposit in 2010 to reserve a 2011 Leaf EV with a range of 85 miles (on a good day). Lots of promises of a charging network, etc.
Updated in 2014 to a Leaf with the same range because we couldn’t afford a T. No charging network unless the crappy third party or ‘Tour de Nissan Dealers’. Did a M3 reservation.
Started looking at a MS realizing a 3 wouldn’t be 35k (when was the last time you bought a No options car- they don’t make them!
Scraped together enough to get a 60S -never looked back AND started buying TSLA in 2016. Nothing fancy, just shares and Long.
Nissan has had 7 years and their 2018 offering is 40k and 150 mile range (again on a VERY good day) - no charging network and certainly flying off the shelf! And their stock has varied $5 or so in the 7 years.
Also, realize that in the month of January, T delivered more long range EVs than Nissan or Chevy. And will continue for MANY months combined ! And soon more than all combined.
And I’ll be happy to buy all of muns shares for $140 to get him to sleep at night!
bdy0627
Active Member
Don't kid yourself, anyone in the stock market is gambling. Some take higher risks for greater reward. Others take much higher risks for much greater reward. I don't think you can truly say that some are gambling and others are not.Options are a gambling mans sport anyway
From Wikipedia:
Gambling is the wagering of money or something of value on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning money or material goods. Gambling thus requires three elements be present: consideration, chance and prize.
“The “2,000 to 2,500” units per week cited in this comment refers solely to the capacity of the additional automated battery module manufacturing equipment that is currently located in Germany, and not to Tesla’s total Model 3 production run rate or to the capacity of the automated battery module equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1. Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018. With respect to battery module production, Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is dependent only on the equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1, as well as the incremental capacity that is currently being added through the semi-automated lines that were also discussed during the conference call.”
Tesla clarifies comments about Model 3 production ramp – no need for new battery line for 2,500 units per week
The fun part is that me as a non native speaker did not read out of the CC what all you heard. My view was and is that 2,500 give and take is a safe target in Q1 and on track for Q2 as well. As a result I added at $302 considering the situation much better than predicted from most people here. Would not be surprised if we see a nice run early next week if Marcos allow it.
Tesla clarifies comments about Model 3 production ramp – no need for new battery line for 2,500 units per week
The fun part is that me as a non native speaker did not read out of the CC what all you heard. My view was and is that 2,500 give and take is a safe target in Q1 and on track for Q2 as well. As a result I added at $302 considering the situation much better than predicted from most people here. Would not be surprised if we see a nice run early next week if Marcos allow it.
bdy0627
Active Member
It seems this is a near universal experience for "the crazy ones" who decide to get into options. Most, if not all, lose a substantial amount during the learning curve. After that...it's probably a mixed bag, but I don't think there are many old, bold, options traders.Thank you for the kind words! I have been pretty much reading this forum since early last year, and finally decided I should contribute a bit the last day or two.
By the way, I believe you were one of those that were burned in the past by over leveraging either on options or just in general, right? I believe you have written about that in the forum, I should've heeded your advice, but human nature being what they are, you throw caution to the wind when times were good, and then double down when they go bad, right...
bdy0627
Active Member
Well the stock rose from $295 to $313 in about 40 minutes. I figured some smarter shorts were covering when we bounced off of $295 adding fuel to the rapid rise. They'll be back next week.
bdy0627
Active Member
Why not go with J19s or even June or Sep calls if you are confident we will rise over the next few months?
bdy0627
Active Member
Whoa. This is not minor news.
If we revisit 300 on monday, I'll add some shares. Today I added some NFLX instead.
For the first time, I'm trying to diversify a bit. My TSLA position is down from ~200% two years ago to ~95% now.
For the first time, I'm trying to diversify a bit. My TSLA position is down from ~200% two years ago to ~95% now.
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bdy0627
Active Member
Well, I guess I wasn't the only one who interpreted it that way. Glad they clarified it with this new statement. I like it!You were saying?
bdy0627
Active Member
I'm the exact opposite.If we revisit 300 on monday, I'll add some shares. Today I added som NFLX instead.
For the first time, I'm trying to diversify a bit. My TSLA position is down from ~200% two years ago to ~95% now.
He's likely on a private island somewhere celebrating the post ER gap up to 380 he predicted.
Seriously? When has Elon ever "over delivered" on a production target? Listen to CC, even Elon has his doubts. There will be another excuse when this target is not met and there will be fewer folks willing to prop up this loss making enterprise with New money.
Tesla NEVER under delivers. They deliver more than they promise and years ahead of competition.
Dennisj00
Member
We may quibble over delivery dates but they are still years ahead.
Lol, I love this company and have quite a bit of my net worth invested into it. But do you own a tesla? They do amazing things, but I have yet to feel as though they've given me exactly what I was promised. The only "more" might be the occasional Easter egg.
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