-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
The Model 3 delays and market turbulence appear to have awakened some dormant FUDster accounts. When all kinds of bitter and angry people arrive to attack Elon and sow doubts about production, I take that as another sign that the investor sentiment is hitting a floor.
Sorry but did you read the 8k ? Tesla doesn't need any equipment from Germany to get to 2500/w.
Recall that a month ago, Elon claimed it had hit a pace that "extrapolates" to more than 1000 vehicle per week (Model 3). Real result: InsideEV's estimate January production a little under 1900 units. On the CC, despite repeated requests for current production, Elon refused to answer. He's getting concerned about running afoul of the SEC: "It Is important to note that while these are the levels we are focused on hitting and we have plans in place to achieve them, our prior experience on the Model 3 ramp has demonstrated the difficulty of accurately forecasting specific production rates at specific points in time."
I'll just point out the InsideEV's estimates have proven to be low for the first two months of a quarter, and they always play catchup later.
Um, yes I read the 8k. The post on my site was made before the 8k.
Also, regarding the 8k... you say “Tesla doesn't need any equipment from Germany to get to 2500/w“, but more accurate to say “Tesla claims...” because Tesla’s credibility with production ramp guidance is completely shot at this point. They need to earn back trust by actually doing what they say they will do. Not sure many people believe at this point, and rightfully so, that Tesla will actually reach 2500/week by end of Q1 and 5000/week by end of Q2.
Last edited:
Reciprocity
Active Member
True, but this is more of a reflection of how Tesla does production and deliveries throughout the quarter. They basically clear the decks at the end of the prior quarter with most of the deliveries late in the quarter hitting at the same time because of how they queued up production and shipping so that cars are for Europe and China first, then the East Coast, then finally the West Coast so that basically the bulk of the vehicles are being delivered in the last month of the quarter. They produce cars from farthest to closest so that back loads deliveries. This has a much smaller impact on Model 3 as all the cars are being delivered in the US, though there is till an impact from East Coast vs West Coast, but I expect that lag to be much smaller then China and Europe. I would imagine that the InsideEV numbers are fairly accurate, but does not include cars in transit and also the plant was shut down for the first week. This could account for as many as another 1800 cars.
Also, inside EVs numbers show that Tesla had its best Jan ever by about 2x the number of deliveries and dominated deliveries for all EVs by a very large margin. This does not even take into consideration the ASP, which is probably 2-3x the average of the top 5 Evs that are not Tesla's on that list. I expect this trend to continue and to expand quickly to 3x, 4x, 5x and so on. At some point in the near future the 3 Tesla models should double all other models combined, then all other models combined comparing 1 Tesla year to the last 10 years for all other EVs and so on and so on.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Did I miss something.. wasnt it supposed to be 2500/w by the end of Q1 and then 5000 by the end of Q2?
From the recent 8K said:
Elon's has never been shy about announcing progress, wonder why he won't reveal current production numbers?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Yes, thanks. Typo. Or maybe it's when I think Tesla will be reaching those goals.
At this point, I think this is a serious question. Adam Jonas, who was uncannily the most accurate analyst regarding Q4 2017 production number predictions, is saying he doesn't see Tesla reaching 5000 cars/week until 2019. Hmmm. I guess we'll have to see.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Up to Elon & Team to disprove the skeptics, who have so far been 100% right on Model 3 ramp. It really is shameful.
It's hard to fathom that the potential of Elon being awarded tens of billions of dollars is even on the table right now as this nonsense continues. The Board should delay the vote until at least 5,000 per week is achieved, sustainably, with none of the "burst rate" crap. If he can grow the market cap 10x from that, then fine, but the starting point should not be less than 20% ramp speed of what was originally predicted.
Last edited:
sure, but hitting ~2/3rd of their stated goal (1700 by end of Q1 and 3300 by end of Q2) would still be transformative. Doubling revenues from 2017 to 2018 would require ~200k Model 3.
At this point I'm hoping for something like this:
Q1 15,000 (1250/week)
Q2 35,000 (2800/ week)
Q3 60,000 (5000/ week)
Q4: 80,000 (7500/ week)
Along with flat S + X sales and growth in energy that should put the company at $22-$25B in revenues with a Q4 revenue run rate of $6-7B. There wont be much with respect to earnings given all the expansion opportunities, but they may be "GAAP profitable" while spending a few billion in R&D.
Yeah, I was thinking this delay in production ramp is quite a big deal and that Elon probably should just take responsibility for it. Sure, the supplier dropped the ball, but Tesla dropped the ball by not being more proactively engaged with the supplier. They should have tested earlier and more comprehensively earlier. Management dropped the ball by letting this slip. And Elon, ultimately, dropped the ball for letting management not be on top of things like they should of. Maybe a competent COO might have avoided this. Elon is great at strategy, product design, engineering, marketing, etc. But not so great at operations. Empower someone very competent at the COO level to manage operations, and I think Tesla will benefit greatly.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Why.. Elon has the right to buy the stock at what $350 a share.. If they are not producing 5k a week by the end of Q2, then the stock price will be $250 or less. I think the incentive package is just fine.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Buying the stock with his own money is not the same thing as being awarded a comp package with a starting point that is so low due to his own mistake. He should take responsibility, not just in words on a stupid conference call, but by delaying the starting point to 5,000/week, as was guided for exit-2017.
This is so fundamental to the company and its shareholders, and it's shocking to me that shareholders are getting ready to vote for this nonsense. The fact that he talks about how other automakers do not see the manufacturing efficiencies around air drag, when he can't produce even 20% of his own goal and at the rate others are manufacturing today, is baffling. He seems completely detached from today's reality.
I think running Tesla like other companies with a very cautious investment cycle and lots of short term compensation goals would be an absolute disaster. The company's growth rate is astronomical given the amount of manufacturing that they do.
Plus Elon and others have also been very clear on the risks, especially timing risks, with respect to their production goals. I don't know how many times he has told us that production ramps are very hard to predict and they have no way of really estimating when the rapid ("exponential") part of the ramp occurs.
As a long term investor I am delighted that the company looks to have produced another run-away winner with the Model 3, spending the time to get it right, and can now shift to operational focus. I would much rather the company be in this position than overweight near-term operational targets and ended up with something like a "Bolt plus."
Listening to the skeptics is a fool's errand. Running a company is not about controlling the short term narrative on twitter or in the financial medial.
Its the middle of Q1 2018 and there is still not a SINGLE competitor to the Model S available for sale anywhere in the world. Elon was wrong on that prediction as well.
I also don't believe they will reach 2500/w by end of Q1.
I think they'll barely get to 2000. And still it will be similar to Q4 : "last days of March we reached a production rate that translate to ... " type of thing.
But I believe it when they say they don't need anything from Germany to reach 2500.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
