TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

I'm with you here, sort off.
I sold large chunk of my leverage (added on the way down $320-$300) last couple of days and today.

I am tempted to buy back some between low $340 and $350, yet, I don't see any proof of ramp happening. Hence, I'm concerned current optimism has played out a bit too early, and that we will see $330 and possibly lower.

Technically though, it's very likely we don't see anything under $340, hence my temptation to load up again in low 340s, if we even see it...

To summarize, I expect disappointment short term, but I doubt it will change outcome for '19 leaps, and even less so for '20 leaps, and I have FOMO, so I'm torn.
Just thinking aloud...

My logic that we will see $330 again is based on the following thought sequence:

1) Tesla stock price is currently dominated by M3 ramp, or more importantly, perception of M3 ramp
2) M3 ramp has been perceived as disappointing, since the end of Sep 2017 when Q3 # came out, and the disappointment hasn't changed, if not intensified, after the 5K/wk target got pushed out twice
3) we're at least 5 weeks away from any significant real news that could alter the disappointment perception
4) given the recent seemingly flatlining of the ramp, the expectation of good news at the end of March is decreasing, adding to the existing negative perception
5) since end of Sep 2017 TSLA has not been above $360, and TSLA doesn't stay flat for long. We've almost always had a $30-$40 swing in any 5 weeks of trading, the only exception is from early Nov to early Dec, where it was depressed down around $300-$315 for a whole month.

so when TSLA crawls close to $360, at this point, the only way it can go, IMO, is back down to $330, before it goes up again. I think even $320 is possible. If some credible rumor comes out that ramp to 2.5k/wk by March end is looking likely, then we may not get that low. But I think the market won't become over-exuberant over TSLA at this point of M3 ramp until Tesla actually nails some big milestone, such as the 2.5k/wk or 5k/wk target.

 

[Waiting4M3]

A Bloomberg reporter - 12:31 EST: Tom Randall on Twitter

Benzinga - 12:32 EST: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Bloomberg Reporter Tom Randall Tweets (1/2): Our Tesla Model 3 tracker may be poised for downward revision. Production seems a bit shaky in both datasets.

I think that matches the sentiments on TMC. People are starting to get antsy about the flatlining. In the long term I'm confident about Tesla's ability to ramp to and past 5k/wk, but one definitely needs to keep an eye out for potential rough patches in the short term if one is leveraged. Just because the roadster can do 250mph it doesn't mean you should drive that fast over a speed bump.

 

[jhm]

A Bloomberg reporter - 12:31 EST: Tom Randall on Twitter

Benzinga - 12:32 EST: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Bloomberg Reporter Tom Randall Tweets (1/2): Our Tesla Model 3 tracker may be poised for downward revision. Production seems a bit shaky in both datasets.

I'm starting to think that Tesla needs to do something to undermine the information value of VIN tracking. I really doing like giving reporters the ability to yank around on the stock with inconclusive data like this. Tesla can start reporting monthly numbers or start pulling VINs in random order. Either way VIN tracking would be made useless and therefore harmless to the stock.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm starting to think that Tesla needs to do something to undermine the information value of VIN tracking. I really doing like giving reporters the ability to yank around on the stock with inconclusive data like this. Tesla can start reporting monthly numbers or start pulling VINs in random order. Either way VIN tracking would be made useless and therefore harmless to the stock.

Maybe VIN tracking is just the messenger, and what you don't like is actually the message.

 

[Tenable]

Someone intentionally dragging TSLA down? When everything else rebounded TSLA is still testing low of the day.

Are you trolling?

 

[dmckinstry]

Shorts fully in control today..the swing is huge...

I thought that was me. Bought 7 shares in pre-market (post market last night) at $355, even though the limit was set at $357.50. Now it should go back down so those of you with dry powder can buy. That's more than 10x what I'd ever paid up until March of 2013.
I'll have some more dry powder tomorrow.

 

[Curt Renz]

At this moment:

GM -2.05%
F -1.56%
TSLA -1.35%

 

[Richgoogol]

Are you trolling?

No pun intended

 

[NicoV]

I see now that my bank offers a 100% margin account. Now should I consider it...?

I couldn’t find any info about margin accounts on Keytrade. I wouldn’t do it.

 

[NicoV]

Well I'm long and prepared to wait 10-15 years, so short-term pull-backs don't bother me so much. However, it the bank were to pull a 007 on me with a margin call at that moment, forcing a sale of my initial capital, well that would be dissappointing.

I also think to use the 100% margin avaialble would indeed be risky, but I could see it being useful as a trading instrument, while leaving core shares untouched.

I think nobody told you yet (on this thread) that there is a cost associated with a margin account: it is basically a loan, so the bank will charge you interest on the loaned amount. So let’s say you use up 100% of your margin, and your stocks don’t move at all, pretty soon you’ll get a margin call to cover the interest.

 

[Manton]

New accounting rules trim Tesla deficit and promise faster future revenues

Just gave us a little pop. Been below 200MA most of the day, i think we'll get back to $358 or at least close to it by close.

 

[Tslynk67]

I think nobody told you yet (on this thread) that there is a cost associated with a margin account: it is basically a loan, so the bank will charge you interest on the loaned amount. So let’s say you use up 100% of your margin, and your stocks don’t move at all, pretty soon you’ll get a margin call to cover the interest.

Here you go, Nico: Keytrade Bank | Margin Accounts

I guess it's rather telling that not one person has come forward to tell me what a good idea it would be

 

[Tenable]

Here you go, Nico: Keytrade Bank | Margin Accounts

I guess it's rather telling that not one person has come forward to tell me what a good idea it would be

Margin is a very effective tool. However, if you're asking about it here its unlikely that its one that you should use. Many on this forum make use of it with varying degrees of frequency. It bears risks you need to be well aware of. Avoiding it is the easiest and safest course of action.

 

[NicoV]

Here you go, Nico: Keytrade Bank | Margin Accounts

I guess it's rather telling that not one person has come forward to tell me what a good idea it would be

Yes I found that. They link to their FAQ, and at first sight I couldn’t find any FAQ about margin. They also link to their ‘risks’ document, and I also couldn’t immediately find anything about margin. And on their tarifs page, I couldn’t find anything about their margin rates.

 

[Tslynk67]

Momentum gathering in Europe against diesel cars, and consumers have lost faith in them anyway, following diesel-gate. Given that petrol cars emit higher CO2 than diesel, and Europe still has strong environmental regulation, seems there's only one way out...

Diesel car ban approved for German cities

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes I found that. They link to their FAQ, and at first sight I couldn’t find any FAQ about margin. They also link to their ‘risks’ document, and I also couldn’t immediately find anything about margin. And on their tarifs page, I couldn’t find anything about their margin rates.

Ah, I thought it was just me... I emailed them to ask... Even though you've all done a great job of scaring me to death!

 

[NicoV]

Ah, I thought it was just me... I emailed them to ask... Even though you've all done a great job of scaring me to death!

Their application form doesn’t even mention the word margin account, it looks like it is a generic credit line application form, with one of the checkboxes allowing to indicate that you want to use the funds for buying stock.

(I’m also a Keytrade customer, not that I would want to open a margin account, I’m just curious).

 

[johnnybgood888]

But..I just wanted 360 so I can lighten up.,.

When it hits $360, you'd want to wait for $370 and so on and so forth.

Here you go, Nico: Keytrade Bank | Margin Accounts

I guess it's rather telling that not one person has come forward to tell me what a good idea it would be

The problem with margin is not the people who use it responsibly, ie. only using a small amount and only to tide you over until your own money gets into your account. It is like a credit card and it's easy to throw caution to the wind and use more than you are able to cover when times are going good. That was MY downfall. I was comfortably using about 15-20% margin (20% of my total equity) but then got greedy and before I knew it, I was at 75-80% margin and that is when things started getting hairy when stock price drops. Based on what TT007 was posting, I am guessing that he is probably in the 150-200% margin if not more, and I would never be able to sleep if I was using that much. You have absolutely no margin for error (pardon the pun) with that amount, not that 75-80% is much better. And to Nico's point, there is also a cost to using margin, which is usually about prime interest rate + 1-3%.

As I have mentioned, I'm going to start deleveraging, and hopefully not have any margin before Q1 ER (so that I have some room to manoeuver if ER is bad), but I think I personally will always be comfortable using 15-20% margin when I think there is a good deal and I cannot get additional money into my trading account in time. You will have to set your own comfort level.

 

[NicoV]

When it hits $360, you'd want to wait for $370 and so on and so forth.

The problem with margin is not the people who use it responsibly, ie. only using a small amount and only to tide you over until your own money gets into your account. It is like a credit card and it's easy to throw caution to the wind and use more than you are able to cover when times are going good. That was MY downfall. I was comfortably using about 15-20% margin (20% of my total equity) but then got greedy and before I knew it, I was at 75-80% margin and that is when things started getting hairy when stock price drops. Based on what TT007 was posting, I am guessing that he is probably in the 150-200% margin if not more, and I would never be able to sleep if I was using that much. You have absolutely no margin for error (pardon the pun) with that amount, not that 75-80% is much better. And to Nico's point, there is also a cost to using margin, which is usually about prime interest rate + 1-3%.

As I have mentioned, I'm going to start deleveraging, and hopefully not have any margin before Q1 ER (so that I have some room to manoeuver if ER is bad), but I think I personally will always be comfortable using 15-20% margin when I think there is a good deal and I cannot get additional money into my trading account in time. You will have to set your own comfort level.

Aren’t DITM LEAPs cheaper (interest wise) than using margin?

 

[elasalle]

Personally, I think I am ready to step into the world of margins. I used to until recently transfer a fixed amount into my trading account and have stopped it, planning on using margins instead. Need to keep it manageable (initially under 15%) ...