TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Do you honestly think aapl wouldn't pay $60B for Tesla right now if they could do a deal?
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Let me answer Mule's question this way:
If I thought it possible to acquire Tesla for $60bn, I would raise that in a heartbeat. Might disrupt my duties as Chief Toilet Scrubber at my lodge, but, you know, sacrifices...
Bought a few options today. It will work out quite nicely by next month. This thing couldn't go down any further. It seems like 250 is a good support.
you should read the 10k or at least the balance sheet in the shareholder letters. there are not 25 billion in real liabilities and a lot of assets.
furthermore: most of the bonds are convertible, so there will be a dilution but no debt payment if the share price is high enough (similar to a capital raise at the conversion price of the bond). there is not even a need to raise cash in the near term. if model 3 is not a complete failure it will generate cash. only reason why tesla may consider raising cash is to accelerate model y/semi or china factory.
larmor
Active Member
Think of all the charging cable they could sell...
You're right about the convertibility - the major issues have conversion prices of $360 and $320 roughly, as I recall.
I took another look at the b/s, but (with the possible exception of the $1 billion in deferred revenue) I am having trouble finding the unreal liabilities.
More likely after the market close tomorrow. As I posted yesterday, after the three-day holiday weekend ending January 1, the numbers were reported after the market close on January 3. April 1 was the end of another 3-day holiday weekend. Personnel at the headquarters, factory and delivering cars worldwide were returning today from a long weekend, and need some time to get the figures right. Also in Europe today is another holiday. Meanwhile, this afternoon Elon's focus would have been on the SpaceX launch.
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
I expect them to announce tomorrow after getting today's production total to confirm what was said in Elon's (alleged) 3am email, that they will be "comfortably" over 2000 produced in a 7 day period if today go as planned.
yep. until march 2019 (first 920 million) we can totally be at 360 again in my opinion. In the meantime there is at first glance only a 230 million 1.11.2018 solar city major note that has to be paid.
read the email, too. there was no date on it. do we know that it is from today (second april)? are there multiple sources (employees) confirming that email or only one source reporting it?
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Bears will just say why pay $60B when aapl can just wait for Tesla to go bankrupt and get it for basically nothing....
the real deal for tesla is elon musk. large portions of it's brand value, hiring capabilities, ability to raise money, strategical and operational excellence and therefore also of the market value are connected to him. i highly doubt he would like to work for anyone else and would instead use the money from the sell of his shares for mainly spacex and also other projects. therefore it's highly unlikely that anyone would pay anything close to the current market cap without the insurance that he continues operations as today. the hole concept of tesla getting sold is far off anyway.
Ok... let's see where this forum is? Chance of Tesla bankruptcy- 0.01% or 0.1%. or 1% or 10%
I know where the smart money is, where are we?
I know where the smart money is, where are we?
2virgule5
Member
Less than 1%, basically a black swan event.
0.01%. Two reasons: EM has deep pocketed friends IF he does not want to go to WS for $. Second, Tesla would be bought up if the market value fell to 20b. Pocket change for Apple/Google types
According to Moody's Tesla is at the worst level of their "high default risk" group and further downgrade would move it to the better end of the "very high default risk" group.
CNBC - after the close today: Gene Munster weighs in: The worst still to come for Tesla?
Whenever a headline ends with a question mark, the answer is almost invariably "no". They are nefariously designed to draw clicks.
Whenever a headline ends with a question mark, the answer is almost invariably "no". They are nefariously designed to draw clicks.
Several VIN assignments being reported around 13,xxx.
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