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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I don't know, I assume each cell builder has some standard sizes.
Do cell makers take input from automakers about what cell size they need? Who gets to call the shot? What if some automaker wants to have multiple sources of the same cells? Would 2 cell makers align between themselves for one customer? Would automakers align among themselves? This seems like herding cats to me, and I don't think anyone even knows who's doing the herding, and who are the cats.
 
I'd guess at this point most NMC pouch cells are of similar density so for any particular amp hour rating you'd find similarly sized cells. If I were designing an EV I'd figure out my desired pack energy storage and then look at the existing products which would best fit the type of vehicle I was designing.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: MacRocket
Lucky you. In Belgium we pay a fixed amount (arond 10$) plus 0,27% tax on the value of the transaction. So just buying and selling one share would cost you 20$.

If I had 0$ transaction costs I'd get into day trading. Now it's just not worth it.

Who are you using, @jeewee? I'm with keytrade and I think it's around €25 for a NASDAQ trade + stamp duty.

Still, no capital-gains tax, so we win-out in the end, considerably :D
 
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Reactions: madodel
Pretty much, yes. Toyota hasn't even designed a car yet -- they're still building these gasmobile things. VW is promising large production in 2 years, but they have to build a factory first.

Sure, there are a few pieces they know how to design and build, but not the battery, motor, charger, controller, main computer, body, or frame... (do you realize how long it took incumbents to start using the skateboard design? ...)
Toyota is waiting to see if their solid state battery works
 
And free protection from the United States Armed Forces.

You are welcome.
Do you really think the US would be offering "free" protection if they didn't reap more than the cost? The military allows the US to receive favourable terms in almost every way. Better trade terms, becoming the global reserve currency, access to markets it otherwise wouldn't have, shaping the political landscape.

How big do you think Google, Amazon, Facebook et al would be if other countries treated them like China does?
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: Drax7
Absolutely possible but will be very short lived. Same probably goes for $300+ for now. Ping pong seems to be the order of the day until fear or FOMO ratches up on one side or the other. What will that take? For us bulls, we have to try to factor in the market as well, which makes things just a wee bit challenging these days.
Has someone turned autopilot on? ;)
 
Something I do from time to time is compare articles and press coverage of Tesla to other periods of time in its history. The google news search function makes this pretty easy to do. Few interesting things I noticed...

The amount of bankruptcy talk now versus any time in the past 5 years. This is a new phenomenon as of late that I think really tells you something about the short-selling situation as of this moment.

It seems like we entered a new phase of goal post moving...

- First it was, "they can only build 1 model, they can't scale up".

- Then it was the Bob Lutz "unbuildable car that can't be built", that is now being made on a massive scale.

- Then it was the "Elon Musk can't make a lower priced car like other companies on a massive scale".

But now we are morphing into a "Tesla isn't building the cars the way we want it, investigate them and see where they are sending their car parts to" and "Tesla is making cars faster, make sure they are following all the rules, OSHA investigate!" and "Investigate their autopilot, make sure they aren't breaking the rules" and "SEC, look at their accounting, something must be wrong!". This is new.

I truly believe we have entered the 3rd phase...

First they ignore you...

Then they laugh at you...

Then they fight you...

Tesla was ignored up until the Model S was being produced.

Tesla was laughed at since 2013 as being nothing more than a niche car maker for cultists and hippies.

Tesla is now, as we speak, becoming a competitor to every established car company in the world. With every model that comes out, another group of companies are losing their easily-won market share. Tesla is now being fought. Competitors want to see unionization. Competitors want to see investigations. Competitors want to see bad publicity. It is not a coincidence that as Tesla is morphing into a major automaker, the negativity has increased tremendously.

Notice how there is a hedge-fund manager of a few million dollars, going around publicizing that he has 98% of his fund in a Tesla short position? That is new. Since when do people pay a guy to put all his client's money into 1 position?

Notice how you are seeing Tesla shorts attempting to defame SpaceX and claim their accomplishments are scams because Elon is involved? That is new.

Notice how many articles are telling Tesla reservation holders that we are running out of patience? Notice how they all speak to delays and disappointment and how mad we are? I haven't been disappointed, but I'm sure told to be disappointed almost every day...hmmm...

I know in today's world I'll be labeled a conspiracy theorist. But you know what...if I was an investor in GM, or a bond holder of Ford, or a part owner of a huge car-dealer chain...I'd be hoping my company would be doing everything to ensure its business model is maintained. They would be doing a disservice to their shareholders if they didn't. What is Ford going to do...admit they accumulated $100 billion dollars in debt by spending it on PP&E that will soon become obsolete? Admit they cost their customers thousands by using middle men to peddle their cars? No...they are going to fight back against anything that threatens their business, by any legal means necessary, which includes using the press.

This is a war and it is just beginning.

Another thing I like to do? Check new inventory listings of German cars on dealership websites...curious how I can find so many cars with asymmetrical panel gaps..but I don't see articles written about that...hmm...

Not a coincidence. None of it is.

WAR!
 
Isn't that the cause of Samsung Galaxy phones exploding, battery cell was packed too tightly?
No Samsung finally explained what caused the Galaxy Note 7 explosions

. Batteries from “Company A” malfunctioned due to a design issue, said Samsung. It did not name the suppliers in the presentation, though it is likely that Company A refers to Samsung SDI—whose batteries were fitted in phones shipped to the US and most other countries. The negative electrode components in the upper-right corner of the battery deflected, leading to a short circuit, Samsung said. Batteries from “Company B”—likely ATL, a third-party battery vendor that supplied phones shipped to China—malfunctioned due to manufacturing issues. During welding, bumps formed that poked through barriers in the battery and made direct contact with the negative electrode.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Waiting4M3
Something I do from time to time is compare articles and press coverage of Tesla to other periods of time in its history. The google news search function makes this pretty easy to do. Few interesting things I noticed...

The amount of bankruptcy talk now versus any time in the past 5 years. This is a new phenomenon as of late that I think really tells you something about the short-selling situation as of this moment.

It seems like we entered a new phase of goal post moving...

- First it was, "they can only build 1 model, they can't scale up".

- Then it was the Bob Lutz "unbuildable car that can't be built", that is now being made on a massive scale.

- Then it was the "Elon Musk can't make a lower priced car like other companies on a massive scale".

But now we are morphing into a "Tesla isn't building the cars the way we want it, investigate them and see where they are sending their car parts to" and "Tesla is making cars faster, make sure they are following all the rules, OSHA investigate!" and "Investigate their autopilot, make sure they aren't breaking the rules" and "SEC, look at their accounting, something must be wrong!". This is new.

I truly believe we have entered the 3rd phase...

First they ignore you...

Then they laugh at you...

Then they fight you...

Tesla was ignored up until the Model S was being produced.

Tesla was laughed at since 2013 as being nothing more than a niche car maker for cultists and hippies.

Tesla is now, as we speak, becoming a competitor to every established car company in the world. With every model that comes out, another group of companies are losing their easily-won market share. Tesla is now being fought. Competitors want to see unionization. Competitors want to see investigations. Competitors want to see bad publicity. It is not a coincidence that as Tesla is morphing into a major automaker, the negativity has increased tremendously.

Notice how there is a hedge-fund manager of a few million dollars, going around publicizing that he has 98% of his fund in a Tesla short position? That is new. Since when do people pay a guy to put all his client's money into 1 position?

Notice how you are seeing Tesla shorts attempting to defame SpaceX and claim their accomplishments are scams because Elon is involved? That is new.

Notice how many articles are telling Tesla reservation holders that we are running out of patience? Notice how they all speak to delays and disappointment and how mad we are? I haven't been disappointed, but I'm sure told to be disappointed almost every day...hmmm...

I know in today's world I'll be labeled a conspiracy theorist. But you know what...if I was an investor in GM, or a bond holder of Ford, or a part owner of a huge car-dealer chain...I'd be hoping my company would be doing everything to ensure its business model is maintained. They would be doing a disservice to their shareholders if they didn't. What is Ford going to do...admit they accumulated $100 billion dollars in debt by spending it on PP&E that will soon become obsolete? Admit they cost their customers thousands by using middle men to peddle their cars? No...they are going to fight back against anything that threatens their business, by any legal means necessary, which includes using the press.

This is a war and it is just beginning.

Another thing I like to do? Check new inventory listings of German cars on dealership websites...curious how I can find so many cars with asymmetrical panel gaps..but I don't see articles written about that...hmm...

Not a coincidence. None of it is.

WAR!

We need to organise and fight back any way we can. Great post Time
 
Something I do from time to time is compare articles and press coverage of Tesla to other periods of time in its history. The google news search function makes this pretty easy to do. Few interesting things I noticed...

The amount of bankruptcy talk now versus any time in the past 5 years. This is a new phenomenon as of late that I think really tells you something about the short-selling situation as of this moment.

It seems like we entered a new phase of goal post moving...

- First it was, "they can only build 1 model, they can't scale up".

- Then it was the Bob Lutz "unbuildable car that can't be built", that is now being made on a massive scale.

- Then it was the "Elon Musk can't make a lower priced car like other companies on a massive scale".

But now we are morphing into a "Tesla isn't building the cars the way we want it, investigate them and see where they are sending their car parts to" and "Tesla is making cars faster, make sure they are following all the rules, OSHA investigate!" and "Investigate their autopilot, make sure they aren't breaking the rules" and "SEC, look at their accounting, something must be wrong!". This is new.

I truly believe we have entered the 3rd phase...

First they ignore you...

Then they laugh at you...

Then they fight you...

Tesla was ignored up until the Model S was being produced.

Tesla was laughed at since 2013 as being nothing more than a niche car maker for cultists and hippies.

Tesla is now, as we speak, becoming a competitor to every established car company in the world. With every model that comes out, another group of companies are losing their easily-won market share. Tesla is now being fought. Competitors want to see unionization. Competitors want to see investigations. Competitors want to see bad publicity. It is not a coincidence that as Tesla is morphing into a major automaker, the negativity has increased tremendously.

Notice how there is a hedge-fund manager of a few million dollars, going around publicizing that he has 98% of his fund in a Tesla short position? That is new. Since when do people pay a guy to put all his client's money into 1 position?

Notice how you are seeing Tesla shorts attempting to defame SpaceX and claim their accomplishments are scams because Elon is involved? That is new.

Notice how many articles are telling Tesla reservation holders that we are running out of patience? Notice how they all speak to delays and disappointment and how mad we are? I haven't been disappointed, but I'm sure told to be disappointed almost every day...hmmm...

I know in today's world I'll be labeled a conspiracy theorist. But you know what...if I was an investor in GM, or a bond holder of Ford, or a part owner of a huge car-dealer chain...I'd be hoping my company would be doing everything to ensure its business model is maintained. They would be doing a disservice to their shareholders if they didn't. What is Ford going to do...admit they accumulated $100 billion dollars in debt by spending it on PP&E that will soon become obsolete? Admit they cost their customers thousands by using middle men to peddle their cars? No...they are going to fight back against anything that threatens their business, by any legal means necessary, which includes using the press.

This is a war and it is just beginning.

Another thing I like to do? Check new inventory listings of German cars on dealership websites...curious how I can find so many cars with asymmetrical panel gaps..but I don't see articles written about that...hmm...

Not a coincidence. None of it is.

WAR!
Great post indeed! To say Tesla is a disruptor is an understatement. They have taken on some of the largest and most entrenched industries that exist (oil, autos, utilities,...), so the fighting shouldn’t be a surprise. I’m afraid the skirmishes and battles to date are nothing compared to what we could see. Like all wars, it’s going to be ugly, but that Tesla grin will be there every time I accelerate and see the ”dino” machines in my rear view mirror, no rear view camera, screaming and struggling to catch up. Go TSLA!
 
Timely post Time. IMHO the fight has already been won (with the introduction of the M3) and there is no turning back. The alternative EV is here and will soon be in a driveway near you (if not your own). With every new EV delivered the educated base of Consumers will grow. The actions by mass media to preserve their advertising revenue come too little, too late. Big auto is on idle for now, set in their ICE world and their ICE profits. The war between ICE and EV will be fought with our hard earned currencies. Customers will demand EVs. Most on this forum do. I do.

It's like when smoking in the '60s & '70s was considered cool. By the mid '90s smoking was not only uncool, it was banned in most public spaces in countries like Canada and USA. Somebody forgot to mention it was a killer. Sound familiar? Norway, UK, France and China have a timeline for banning ICE.

Still evolution does not happen overnight. It will take time and EVs' time will soon approach critical mass. How does this reflect TSLA short term SP? I haven't a clue, nor do I worry. My currency is with Elon for as long as it takes.

Daniel
 
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Timely post Time. IMHO the fight has already been won (with the introduction of the M3) and there is no turning back. The alternative EV is here and will soon be in a driveway near you (if not your own). With every new EV delivered the educated base of Consumers will grow. The actions by mass media to preserve their advertising revenue come too little, too late. Big auto is on idle for now, set in their ICE world and their ICE profits. The war between ICE and EV will be fought with our hard earned currencies. Customers will demand EVs. Most on this forum do. I do.

It's like when smoking in the '60s & '70s was considered cool. By the mid '90s smoking was not only uncool, it was banned in most public spaces in countries like Canada and USA. Somebody forgot to mention it was killer. Sound familiar? Norway, UK, France and China have a timeline for banning ICE.

Still evolution does not happen overnight. It will take time and EVs' time will soon approach critical mass. How does this reflect TSLA short term SP? I haven't a clue, nor do I worry. My currency is with Elon for as long as it takes.

Daniel
This strikes a chord here. I was recently in Italy and wondered at the amount of smoke generated both by ICE vehicles, including and especially 2-stroker scooters and Apes, and by people of all generations burning tobacco everywhere. o_O During almost two weeks I saw exactly one Tesla, an X. At the same time I'm glad I didn't bring my own S to those narrow and winding roads carved out of the Amalfi coast and the intense traffic there. :eek: Naples was much like a computer game -- our taxi driver honked 4+3 times when the first car hadn't moved 0.6 seconds after the light turned green. :rolleyes:

"Other than that, Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?" Oh, a very nice vacation in very nice places and very nice people and exceptional food, as expected. :D
 
Do you really think the US would be offering "free" protection if they didn't reap more than the cost? The military allows the US to receive favourable terms in almost every way. Better trade terms, becoming the global reserve currency, access to markets it otherwise wouldn't have, shaping the political landscape.

How big do you think Google, Amazon, Facebook et al would be if other countries treated them like China does?

I don’t know man personally I’d be happier if the souls of some other country were paying to subsidize my security so I could spend my tax dollars and/or my life doing other profitable adventures.
 
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