TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SunCatcher]

Advertising is the lifeblood of the media. Tesla does not advertise. The other automakers and their dealerships advertise heavily. Unlike with Tesla's competitors, there is not much need for media outlets to think twice about disseminating doubtful FUD about Tesla. Meanwhile, they lack much motivation to spread good Tesla news, especially if it might be hurtful to their advertisers.

I think this is so spot on Curt. Large automakers pay more for advertising than any other product makers that I can think of. It could almost be seen as protection money as well as money for publicity. Tesla pays no protection money, so gets no protection. In fact, just the opposite. What we're seeing is the symbolic equivalent of the media sending their thugs after Tesla with baseball bats. "If you want us to stop, you might consider paying up, the way these other guys do. And yes, we do see you as a threat to our cash cows."

 

[YasB]

@Reciprocity and @bdy0627 thanks for the detailed answers.

I'm pretty sure you are underestimating the incumbents as much as i may underestimate Tesla. Regarding volumes of EVs, i hope we'll see them earlier than you think. The only company i have some more detailed numbers at hand is VW Group, since i still own some of their shares. They seem to be aiming for something like 250k+ EVs in 2020 and 500k+ EVs in 2021 ramping further to 2 or 3 million by 2025, depending on how well they do and how battery technologie develops. Of course I do acknowledge that they'll mostly operate in another market segment than Tesla, except maybe the Audi and Porsche brands. Guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

 

[bhtooefr]

May I suggest using a virtual private network (VPN). Not only does a VPN provide a secure tunnel for your traffic from your device to websites (so you can safely use the free Starbucks Wi-Fi) but, at least the one I use, allows you to select what area of the world your computer "appears" to be accessing the internet from. Now I'm not suggesting that you should use it to get around sports "blackouts" or to spoof your Netflix. However, increasing your portfolio without extra fees seems like an appropriate use.

It's not geolocation, you actually have to have a Social Security Number, US address, and US citizenship or residency status.

(Also, hi, I'm basically here to keep an eye on these threads for now. Interested in electrification and renewable energy, and figured TSLA would be a good buy to invest in that, especially when it fell below $250 a few weeks ago.)

 

[EVMeister]

@YasB

Say you're right about VW et al. ramping up very successfully. Why should this adversely affect Tesla? The EV segment is a massively growing segment, whiilst ICE is shrinking. It is a fundamental shift in the market and one which existing manufacturers are being forced to adapt to. I think it's myopic to think that VW's potential success in the marketplace would be detrimental to Tesla. In reality, I think quite the opposite - they need a bigger market to thrive in.

 

[Duffer]

Advertising is the lifeblood of the media. Tesla does not advertise. The other automakers and their dealerships advertise heavily. Unlike with Tesla's competitors, there is no need for media outlets to think twice about disseminating doubtful FUD about Tesla. Meanwhile, they lack much motivation to spread good Tesla news, especially if it might be hurtful to their advertisers.

I would also include the media outlets owner(s) or majority stockholders on the list of groups they wouldn't want to hurt.

Though to be fair, Tesla isn't the only apparent victim of an agenda. Pick any topic (environment, race relations, politics, etc.) and FUD/clickbait reigns supreme.

 

[Richgoogol]

Bought 50 shs @ 290.1 & 290.64...not the close I wanted, I was thinking it'll get pegged @ 295 like this morning, but then again the macro was really bad..Hoping for a better week next week...

 

[NicoV]

Service notice: this was the last trading day that Tesla was at 4K/week (2K S/X+ 2K 3). As of the next trading day (monday), please account for 1K-2K additional Model 3’s.

 

[Big Earl]

It's not geolocation, you actually have to have a Social Security Number, US address, and US citizenship or residency status.

(Also, hi, I'm basically here to keep an eye on these threads for now. Interested in electrification and renewable energy, and figured TSLA would be a good buy to invest in that, especially when it fell below $250 a few weeks ago.)

Welcome, friend.

 

[Big Earl]

Picked up another share just before close at $289.98.

 

[bdy0627]

Bought 50 shs @ 290.1 & 290.64...not the close I wanted, I was thinking it'll get pegged @ 295 like this morning, but then again the macro was really bad..Hoping for a better week next week...

Ugly day. I thought I was getting some good buys earlier but should have waited until close as it turns out. I seem to be on a roll of making the wrong short term moves. But, that'll change soon enough. It's the long term I really want to get right.

 

[Duffer]

It's not geolocation, you actually have to have a Social Security Number, US address, and US citizenship or residency status.

(Also, hi, I'm basically here to keep an eye on these threads for now. Interested in electrification and renewable energy, and figured TSLA would be a good buy to invest in that, especially when it fell below $250 a few weeks ago.)

Hmm. I remember reading comments from non-citizen shareholders about being able to vote on Musk's compensation package. IRRC, some were European.

 

[JRP3]

The only company i have some more detailed numbers at hand is VW Group, since i still own some of their shares. They seem to be aiming for something like 250k+ EVs in 2020 and 500k+ EVs in 2021 ramping further to 2 or 3 million by 2025, depending on how well they do and how battery technologie develops.

Read their plans carefully, many claim "X number of EV's" but include plugin hybrids in those totals.

 

[dc_h]

6) Battery performance: Why do you assume the new battery packs in cars like the I-Pace, E-Tron or the newer Leafs are performing worse? Is there any provable advantage Tesla has? That is, if we leave aside all the assumptions about the amazing things Jeff Dahn is supposed to have done. IP on Panasonics side will probably be used for whomever they produce cells.

Probably answered elsewhere, but leaf batteries and Volts are losing capacity much faster. Tesla batteries are much more stable, losing less than 10% over 150,000 Miles, vs I think about 20% for leaf/Bolt after 20-30,000 Miles.
Recent elektrec articles. I’m not at pc.

 

[Richgoogol]

Ugly day. I thought I was getting some good buys earlier but should have waited until close as it turns out. I seem to be on a roll of making the wrong short term moves. But, that'll change soon enough. It's the long term I really want to get right.

I got carried away with actions from yesterday and seeing this morning's action it seemed to be that it was going to be a smooth sailing day with a close above $301, so I went pretty aggressive this morning and got burnt again by macro. I'm kicking myself again

 

[dc_h]

So jealous of that Robinhood app. Can't access it from Belgium.

Oh well, I'll just be a long term investor and enjoy my almost free health care.

If you use a vpn app can you get there?

 

[dc_h]

I got carried away with actions from yesterday and seeing this morning's action it seemed to be that it was going to be a smooth sailing day with a close above $301, so I went pretty aggressive this morning and got burnt again by macro. I'm kicking myself again

Could rally any day, but could be after May 2 eRnings, after deliveries are sustained over 4-5000 or not until Q3 earnings come out profitable.
Stay long and unleveraged.

 

[MacRocket]

Somebody tell me something tesla related that I can look forward to over the weekend

Visit a Tesla Showroom, talk to the staff, ask questions, buy a Tesla hat. Look at some model 3. Forget about the sp (one day you will wake up and it will be $600)
Tesla staff are so alive and happy I have found. You will head home in high spirits after doing some or all of the above.

 

[Reciprocity]

@Reciprocity and @bdy0627 thanks for the detailed answers.

I'm pretty sure you are underestimating the incumbents as much as i may underestimate Tesla. Regarding volumes of EVs, i hope we'll see them earlier than you think. The only company i have some more detailed numbers at hand is VW Group, since i still own some of their shares. They seem to be aiming for something like 250k+ EVs in 2020 and 500k+ EVs in 2021 ramping further to 2 or 3 million by 2025, depending on how well they do and how battery technologie develops. Of course I do acknowledge that they'll mostly operate in another market segment than Tesla, except maybe the Audi and Porsche brands. Guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

You get me wrong. I hope the incumbents do compete. I have zero doubt that they can do something. These are juggernauts of companies, they can do almost anything. The problem is that they dont have the will, they dont want to rock the boat and they dont want to admit a failure. More EVs will only help Tesla. Because looking at the competition, its well, how you say.. lacking. They are small, slow, ugly, low range and no charging infrastructure while being more expensive.

There is almost zero chance that VW will make 250k EVs in 2020. I would be shocked if they made over 50,000 (beyond the eGolf) by 2021, including Audi and Porsche. You have mission E, at 10,000 at most and that is a stretch. You have Audi eTron, about the same and again that is pushing it. That is 40k max for 2019 and 2020. It wont matter what demand is, because they want their customers buying ICEv variants not EVs. I can assure you the demand for those EVs will be huge, but supply will be absurdly limited. People like Tesla's, but they also like choice. They wont have a real choice until 2022 at the earliest. And I for one, welcome the competition. It will be great for consumers. Competition always is.

You have to explain to me where the 250,000 customers are going to come from. If they sell 250,000 cars and then 500,000. Who are the customers? You clearly have not thought this out. What vehicles will they have and at what price points and what segments. Are these going to be $35k cars or $95k cars? Where the holy heck are they going to get 75 Gigawatt hours of batteries in 2020 and 2021? You have them selling cars that will consume that many batteries. Mind you, VW is one of about 20 companies that will have upwards of 200 models by 2020. Each of them S3XY Killers. They want to kill S3XY. You must sell your shares asap and buy TSLA.

 

[YasB]

There is almost zero chance that VW will make 250k EVs in 2020. I would be shocked if they made over 50,000 (beyond the eGolf) by 2021, including Audi and Porsche. You have mission E, at 10,000 at most and that is a stretch. You have Audi eTron, about the same and again that is pushing it. That is 40k max for 2019 and 2020. It wont matter what demand is, because they want their customers buying ICEv variants not EVs. I can assure you the demand for those EVs will be huge, but supply will be absurdly limited. People like Tesla's, but they also like choice. They wont have a real choice until 2022 at the earliest. And I for one, welcome the competition. It will be great for consumers. Competition always is.

By summer 2019, initially one of two production lines in Zwickau shall be completely modified to manufacture the I.D. with operation kick-off planned end-2019. By modifying and starting also the second production line in 2020, VW is going to run its Zwickau site exclusively as electric mobility plant. The carmaker states that it targets a production output of all in all 1,500 EVs daily.

Those won't be behemoths like Audi SUVs or Model Xs, but mostly compact cars like the I.D. (They now call it Neo, which is a pretty sh.tty name) They'll distribute that over several other brands. With 1500 cars per day they should end up with 350k-400k at that plant. That and some other plants, for Audi, Porsche, Skoda and so on and it should be enough to get to 500k or more by 2021.

VW to produce 1,500 EVs daily in Zwickau plant in Saxony - electrive.com

Edit:

You have to explain to me where the 250,000 customers are going to come from. If they sell 250,000 cars and then 500,000. Who are the customers? You clearly have not thought this out

If they want sell 500k cars, they seem to be assuming that 5% of their customers may be ready to buy an EV by 2021. It's really not me, that thought this out. I swear it wasn't my plan!

 

[bhtooefr]

Hmm. I remember reading comments from non-citizen shareholders about being able to vote on Musk's compensation package. IRRC, some were European.

This is specifically about the Robinhood app, and eligibility for it, not voting rights on the stock.