TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[vinvin218]

Shanghai Lingang Administrative Committee: "The Shanghai gov is very supportive of innovation & development of EV. Also very optimistic about the development of Tesla in China and around the world. Tesla recognizes Shanghai's excellent investment environment and advantages"

here is my tweet with news link: vincent on Twitter

 

[K_Dizzle]

Just my model 3 vin assigned in Canada, White paint, 19s, vin# 30222!!!! I’m so pumped

 

[bobinfla]

i personally think it's kind of strange how many short sellers are lately in this forum and how many short comments we lately see on sites like electrek. i don't mind hearing the opinions of short sellers if they are somewhat sophisticated. But stuff like "If other, well functioning companies would have gotten that money, the world would be better for it." is obviously crap. It's almost as if someone is paying you to spread negative sentiment.

Whenever it feels like the short comments, fear mongering and stupid slanted articles are getting especially out of control, I take that as a sure sign it's time to add to my position because they can only keep the lid on for so long. Added 500 more shares this morning at $282.

 

[Richard007]

Bouht 25 more shares @$28x.xx

Own 742 sh. Someday this will be a great story about buying when out of favor. All my friends think I’m nuts. They only know what’s in mainstream press and think co. is on last legs.

Not sure if it’s courage, blind faith, or just a gamble.

I’m in for the long run.

Richard

 

[phil0909]

He probably thinks Tesla cannot push the production rate higher without a capital raise.

But Jonas says he is assuming there WILL be a capital raise of $3.0B in Q3 this year. So, I assume his reasoning must be something else - production, demand, both?

I'm a pessimist on this ramp, but even I figure on a substantially higher number.

 

[phil0909]

To me the shorts today sound just like the shorts over the years.

Of course. What would be surprising is if they sounded different today. They are short, after all.

 

[Unpilot]

thats a very narrow minded view i think. Shorts help to expose fraud and misuse of capital. Tesla has squandered billions and billions and has some 100k luxury cars to show for that do little to nothing for the environment on a big scale. If other, well functioning companies would have gotten that money, the world would be better for it.

Also, even if they do succeed with their plans, they are still wildly overvalued. And i like to profit from the bad decisions other investors make. Thats the fun, and so far it has been a joyride.

More than twice that and growing rapidly.
At least post factual info.

 

[Waiting4M3]

But Jonas says he is assuming there WILL be a capital raise of $3.0B in Q3 this year. So, I assume his reasoning must be something else - production, demand, both?

I'm a pessimist on this ramp, but even I figure on a substantially higher number.

Jonas is trippier than Trip Chowdhry, IMO. With Trip at least I see where he's coming from. With Jonas, most of the time it's

 

[Waiting4M3]

More than twice that and growing rapidly.
At least post factual info.

300,000 as of Feb 2018
Tesla confirms having produced its 300,000th electric car

 

[sundaymorning]

A bit of good news.

First Tesla Model 3 safety test results released, IIHS says ‘superior rating for front crash prevention’

 

[Off Shore]

On the lighthearted side of life/Tesla

Tesla SUV earns a Guinness World Record for towing massive airplane

Did I say that wrong? Lighter towing an airplane. . .

And BTW what is the 0-60?

 

[kelevra]

Whenever it feels like the short comments, fear mongering and stupid slanted articles are getting especially out of control, I take that as a sure sign it's time to add to my position because they can only keep the lid on for so long. Added 500 more shares this morning at $282.

good point. it's a short term measure. What's new is that it's now also on electrek and this forum (At least i haven't seen it on this scale before). Wouldn't be surprised if those guys aren't really shorts but instead on the payroll of a big short. Would make a ton of sense for a big short seller to invest some pocket money trying to spread fud and bring the SP down. Bitcoin and co proved how well influencing people with social media works.

 

[jhm]

That's if the conversion rate on reservations is 100%. If the conversion rate turns out to be 20%, results are different.

How would you define a conversion rate on a reservation? What goes in the numerator and denominator and how do you deal with the timing lag between issuing a reservation and ultimate disposition? For example, if a reservation holder orders a Model S instead of the Model 3, does that count in the denominator and not the numerator? If a reservation holder is waiting a Performance Model 3, when does that count in the numerator and denominator? I hope you appreciate that there is an incredible amount of ambiguity in the idea of conversion rate and how it is operationally defined make a huge difference. People throw this around as if everyone understands what it means, but that is by no means true.

 

[K_Dizzle]

Bouht 25 more shares @$28x.xx

Own 742 sh. Someday this will be a great story about buying when out of favor. All my friends think I’m nuts. They only know what’s in mainstream press and think co. is on last legs.

Not sure if it’s courage, blind faith, or just a gamble.

I’m in for the long run.

Richard

Just show your friends this article and ask them if they really believe everything the mainstream media says.

The man who predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2012 has said who will win on Tuesday

 

[CorneliusXX]

i personally think it's kind of strange how many short sellers are lately in this forum and how many short comments we lately see on sites like electrek. i don't mind hearing the opinions of short sellers if they are somewhat sophisticated. But stuff like "If other, well functioning companies would have gotten that money, the world would be better for it." is obviously crap. It's almost as if someone is paying you to spread negative sentiment.

Agreed. One would assume TMC was created for fans of the company and yet there seem to be many people openly stating they think it is terrible. Why would they bother if they don't like the company.

Constructive criticism is wholly welcome though.

 

[avoigt]

Anyone know if or when the third shift for Model 3 started? If I remember correctly, it was just a few weeks ago that Elon had mentioned they would be hiring 400 employees per week to get to a total of 1200 between Fremont and Giga 1.

If the third shift started the increase would seem to be from that new shift. If not, then should a bump in production not occur due from the additional shift coming online?

(...) In order to meet the goal, Musk said last month that all Model 3 production would begin working around the clock. Reuters learned that the teams working on general assembly have already switched to three shifts, a schedule that helps maximize capacity and flexibility.

Teams working on the body of the vehicle - where the external shell of the car is assembled - are working in two 12-hour shifts. (...)

Tesla plans six-day stoppage at factory for assembly line fixes -...

 

[jhm]

Shorts help to expose fraud and misuse of capital.

It's actually doubtful that shorts help to make capital allocation more efficient. Experimental economists have studied bubble and crash phenomena that occur where the value of the stock is constructed and known by all participants to decline. This experimental bubble are replicable. What is interesting is that they are able to vary the design of the market to include or exclude short trading. The hypothesis many would like to believe is that the presence of short traders would reduce the peak of the bubble and lessen the severity of collapse. But these experience have failed to show that the presence of short traders makes any difference in price dynamics. Short trading fails to reduce risk to other traders, but even though they may cash in on an entirely predictable decline in value.

So if short trading really does not reduce volatility and the risk of bubbles, how is it that capital is better allocated. In fact, short traders must deploy substantial capital for their operations, while longs must deploy incrementally more capital to counter the position of the shorts. So ultimately the market is tying up incrementally more capital for a given stock than would be needed without the side bets of the shorts. Thus, we've got more capital deployed with no real improvement in accuracy of pricing or reduction of volatility. This is seems to be a very inefficient use of capital.

The basic problem is that in an efficient market long have just as much motivation and information upon which to sell shares when they are over priced. The presence of shorts does not really add any new information or improve upon motivation to act that would not otherwise be there. Ultimately, shorting is just a side bet against an efficient market that add no real value.

Moreover, the reason why shorts engage in misinformation is that an efficient market works always against them. That's why they have to keep fighting real information and sound reasoning with a whole lot of propaganda.

 

[phil0909]

How would you define a conversion rate on a reservation? What goes in the numerator and denominator and how do you deal with the timing lag between issuing a reservation and ultimate disposition? For example, if a reservation holder orders a Model S instead of the Model 3, does that count in the denominator and not the numerator? If a reservation holder is waiting a Performance Model 3, when does that count in the numerator and denominator? I hope you appreciate that there is an incredible amount of ambiguity in the idea of conversion rate and how it is operationally defined make a huge difference. People throw this around as if everyone understands what it means, but that is by no means true.

I think a standard definition would be % of deposits ultimately applied to the purchase of the reserved product. Regardless of time lag. I agree you could define it otherwise, and the resulting rate would be different. I trust you would also agree that under any reasonable definition, it also makes a huge difference whether the conversion rate is 100% or 20% or something in between.

 

[GBleck]

And BTW what is the 0-60?

A stern talking to by ATC ground control over the radio.

Anyone have an idea when the details for the China Gigafactory are going to drop?

 

[22522]

Tesla is shutting down Model 3 production for six more days

Positive for share price