TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

I would actually like it if the share price didn't increase for awhile longer. I'm still accumulating! Give me more time!

 

[pdq]

Doesn't mean much to me.

If you are going to talk authoritatively on this subject, it'd be nice to know your credentials, such as the year when you passed your Series 7 and 63 exams and became a licensed professional capable of giving well grounded financial advice.

You did pass them, correct? Very tough exams, many times harder than those for MBA.

 

[ZsoZso]

That's if the conversion rate on reservations is 100%. If the conversion rate turns out to be 20%, results are different.

Well, the "conversion rate" so far exceeds 100%.
As in, the number of cancelations is negligible and far outweighed by the number of new reservations.

Please, stop repeating the boring bone-headed questions...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

thats a very narrow minded view i think. Shorts help to expose fraud and misuse of capital. Tesla has squandered billions and billions and has some 100k luxury cars to show for that do little to nothing for the environment on a big scale. If other, well functioning companies would have gotten that money, the world would be better for it.

Also, even if they do succeed with their plans, they are still wildly overvalued. And i like to profit from the bad decisions other investors make. Thats the fun, and so far it has been a joyride.

Well, you just go ahead and get your jollies. The rest of us will try to help build something worthwhile.

By the way, I think squandered is a complete misrepresentation. Those millions can be seen in the factories. The assembly lines, the hundreds of thousands of vehicles being enjoyed by customers, the willingness to change the industry, the grid saving power stations in Puerto Rico, South Australia and elsewhere, the infrastructure they have put in place to grow the adoption of reusable energy, and this is just off the top of my head. Yeah, squandered for sure.

Please accept my apologies if I don't jump up and down and applaud your "fun".

Dan

 

[kelevra]

If you are going to talk authoritatively on this subject, it'd be nice to know your credentials, such as the year when you passed your Series 7 and 63 exams and became a licensed professional capable of giving well grounded financial advice.

You did pass them, correct? Very tough exams, many times harder than those for MBA.

that says everything

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The "interesting" question Jonas wrote in the note shows he doesn't really understand Tesla. Jonas recently predicted Model 3 may have demand issue. That shows he didn't do proper research about the car, which is critical when analyzing Tesla.

I put him on my ignore list since long time ago. It's not that I don't read his views, I just don't give him much weight. I read every bull's and bear's views.

...

Jonas was more right on Model 3 ramp than any of us here

 

[Waiting4M3]

Jonas was more right on Model 3 ramp than any of us here

I disagree, I think TMC crowd sourced data on Q4 and Q1 are much more accurate than Jonas's estimates, 1k for Q4 and 8k for Q1.

 

[jhm]

I think a standard definition would be % of deposits ultimately applied to the purchase of the reserved product. Regardless of time lag. I agree you could define it otherwise, and the resulting rate would be different. I trust you would also agree that under any reasonable definition, it also makes a huge difference whether the conversion rate is 100% or 20% or something in between.

Ok, if you want to with an ultimate conversion formulation, then you have the problem of not being able to compute this rate for a really long time. You basically need to wait until some 450k reservation holders have had enough time to have taken delivery of whatever version of a Model 3 they may be interested in. Do you like actuarial problems? At best you can try to model the conversion process to try to estimate ultimate dispositions. Good luck getting that right. So if some bonehead asks Elon what that conversion rate is currently, how is Musk to respond to that? Is he supposed to give his projections of how the numbers will land some 18 to 24 months from now?

 

[Irishjugg]

In fact, Jonas has been quite prescient in his Model 3 production estimates to date. Does anyone know whether he updated his latest predicted production numbers?

Well considering his projection for all of 2018 is less than half of current weekly production, his guesses can go pound sand.

 

[Irishjugg]

That's if the conversion rate on reservations is 100%. If the conversion rate turns out to be 20%, results are different.

Yes, and if gravity suddenly reverses SpaceX job gets a lot easier.

These things are just about equally likely, so I'm not sure why your brightb yours up?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I disagree, I think TMC crowd sourced data on Q4 and Q1 are much more accurate than Jonas's estimates, 1k for Q4 and 8k for Q1.

I'm talking about his prognosis 12, 9 and 6 months ago, when we were all more optimistic than he was, even careful bulls like myself. We we were all thinking that he's hopelessly cautious, wrong and pessimistic.

 

[Dennisj00]

I’ll give you a good example of conversion rate. I made a reservation Day 1 in line around 11 am. In May of 2016, scraped together enough to order a 60S, delivered in July,2016 and cancelled our reservation. So -1.

Six months later, reserved a 3, so plus 1.

And I know 3 that have converted their 3 to an S or X, and still have their reservation.

Put that in your algorithm!

 

[dhrivnak]

thats a very narrow minded view i think. Shorts help to expose fraud and misuse of capital. Tesla has squandered billions and billions and has some 100k luxury cars to show for that do little to nothing for the environment on a big scale. If other, well functioning companies would have gotten that money, the world would be better for it.

Also, even if they do succeed with their plans, they are still wildly overvalued. And i like to profit from the bad decisions other investors make. Thats the fun, and so far it has been a joyride.

First Tesla has produced ove 300,000 cars 3x your claim. They also have three very large factories along with hundreds of robots. That is significant steel in the ground. And finally they are the ONLY company with the foresight to build a very useful and easy to use coast to coast charging infrastructure structure. So they are way ahead of any competition.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think a standard definition would be % of deposits ultimately applied to the purchase of the reserved product. Regardless of time lag. I agree you could define it otherwise, and the resulting rate would be different. I trust you would also agree that under any reasonable definition, it also makes a huge difference whether the conversion rate is 100% or 20% or something in between.

How about we have 450,000 reservation holders and the list grew by $130 million this quarter, totaling over $900 million as indicated by our earnings letter.

 

[anon]

This could be why it is down after hours - two Tesla Energy executives leaving. It sounds like they were probably asked to leave as part of Musk's new reorganization.
Tesla is reportedly losing two energy leaders amid Musk's reorganization

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm talking about his prognosis 12, 9 and 6 months ago, when we were all more optimistic than he was, even careful bulls like myself. We we were all thinking that he's hopelessly cautious, wrong and pessimistic.

He over-corrected after 1st predicting in Nov 2016 that M3 won't hit production until end of 2018. Now he is more and more obviously low on his 2018 estimate, 5 months into 2018, yet he has not adjusted. Why?

Edit, here is his complete history:

• Dec 2016, Jonas predicted that Model 3 delivery will start in late 2018 (not 2017!!)
• May 2017, after seeing a bunch of Model 3 RC cars, Jonas changed to 2K deliveries in Q4 2017, 90K in 2018.
• Aug 2017, after seeing 30 cars actually delivered at the July event, Jonas changed to delivery start in Q3 2017 (duh), and upped estimate to 10K in Q4, and 120K in 2018.
• Oct 2017, after seeing the Q3 delivery #, Jonas slashed his projection for Q4 down to 1K. I think this last guess will come in 1/2 of what Tesla will actually do.

He has varied by an order of magnitude for Q4 2017, from nothing to 2k to 10k and again down to 1k. And now that he's been shown to be low in 2018, yet he has not made another adjustment since Oct 2017.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

This was super informative. Thanks. I had assumed those were the same.

If you care about being right, look at Model 3 invites spreadsheet and you will see 100% is much closer than 20%.

Riiight, because those that defer and those that configure are equally enthused to go and enter data?

Good god, that just reminded me I need to go and report that I deferred...

Except I didn't really... Invite is just siting in my inbox until I see other powertrain/battery options, and Tesla Canada figures out how to facilitate my Model S trade in on Model 3. I've spoken with only 6 people that don't know how to make it happen so far; I'm bound to run into someone that knows, eventually...

 

[Paracelsus]

I wonder if Elon is waiting for the planets to align in order to hit the shorts, one announcement after the other, with a few days/weeks between each. There’s so much waiting in the wings, it’s incredible.

Interesting and very timely comment.............because if you have any interest in the alignment of the planets you may already know that today signals a very powerful move of Uranus (planet of change and awakening) out of ego-focused Aries (political ego struggles, human rights issues/concerns) into Taurus for the next 7-8 years, resulting in a disruptive change towards a more sustainable and healthy planet. Some have suggested that huge investments will accelerate the change of the existing fossil fuel, energy, and transportation paradigm into an era of planet-friendly fuels (solar, wind, storage), and cleaner transportation early in this process. Empowering this process will be a greater sense of community and connectivity.........the power of social media for good, etc. Its been fun to read about.

Elon may have more than just a huge fan following, large investors, and even China behind his efforts at the moment, for the universe wants to move in that same direction as well, and today was its first huge step.

Planetary reading for the shorts that didn't find the door by the end of May 15, 2018............Prepare for Flamethrowers from Uranus!

 

[sundaymorning]

This could be why it is down after hours - two Tesla Energy executives leaving. It sounds like they were probably asked to leave as part of Musk's new reorganization.
Tesla is reportedly losing two energy leaders amid Musk's reorganization

It’s business as usual on the installation side. Powerwalls will be back to normal by next week. All signs point to GF running efficiently with improvements here and there, but overall lots of progress since Musk took over. You don’t want this guy sleeping at the factory if you’re an executive, director, or supplier.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Riiight, because those that defer and those that configure are equally enthused to go and enter data?

Good god, that just reminded me I need to go and report that I deferred...

Except I didn't really... Invite is just siting in my inbox until I see other powertrain/battery options, and Tesla Canada figures out how to facilitate my Model S trade in on Model 3. I've spoken with only 6 people that don't know how to make it happen so far; I'm bound to run into someone that knows, eventually...

I think you should enter your info. I have my invite but still haven't configured. I'm too greedy and want to keep some trading share of TSLA for a while longer instead of buying the car, and now I'm also curious to see the price of AWD and P model before I decide what to configure. I entered my info in the sheet and show up as deferred but without any of the reasons that were listed in the sheet. I think that is still useful info to have for the community.