TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[kelevra]

Or is it actually super bad and take rate is much lower than expected?

I mean, either they magically jumped to 10k/wk or they were totally wrong in their original estimates which assumed 5k/wk by end of Q2... Hmmm....

I guess it's very bad news.
How could anyone without a reservation possibly get a standard battery car within 6 month??? From my understanding production capacity is quite fixed at 5k/wk for the time being. Even if we would produce an average of 5k/wk starting from now and all deliveries go to US costumers this would mean Tesla thinks it's possible to get just 130,000 orders from current US reservation holders.
If we factor in Canadian costumers and a lower average production rate this number could drop to 100,000. Of course this is a worst case scenario. In the best case scenario it takes 12 months with an production rate higher than 5k/wk in this period. This could give us a number like 280,000. If we assume that US deliveries are heavily prioritized we could have as much as 250,000 orders from US costumers.
If we further assume that of the 450,000 reservation holders about half let's say 230,000 are from the US and 30,000 cars have already been produced this would mean Tesla would ADD 50,000 new orders in this time.

The reason i think it's bad news is that we now know for a fact that Tesla thinks the conversion rate COULD be bad. (And Elon refused to answer the question about the conversion rate during the CC)
The numbers from the bullish scenario are actually uneducated guessing. Do we have any data like knowing how many reservation holders are from the US or how strongly Tesla is prioritizing US costumers (would at least make sense because of the Tax credit)?

 

[kelevra]

I guess it's very bad news.
How could anyone without a reservation possibly get a standard battery car within 6 month??? From my understanding production capacity is quite fixed at 5k/wk for the time being. Even if we would produce an average of 5k/wk starting from now and all deliveries go to US costumers this would mean Tesla thinks it's possible to get just 130,000 orders from current US reservation holders.
If we factor in Canadian costumers and a lower average production rate this number could drop to 100,000. Of course this is a worst case scenario. In the best case scenario it takes 12 months with an production rate higher than 5k/wk in this period. This could give us a number like 280,000. If we assume that US deliveries are heavily prioritized we could have as much as 250,000 orders from US costumers.
If we further assume that of the 450,000 reservation holders about half let's say 230,000 are from the US and 30,000 cars have already been produced this would mean Tesla would ADD 50,000 new orders in this time.

The reason i think it's bad news is that we now know for a fact that Tesla thinks the conversion rate COULD be bad. (And Elon refused to answer the question about the conversion rate during the CC)
The numbers from the bullish scenario are actually uneducated guessing. Do we have any data like knowing how many reservation holders are from the US or how strongly Tesla is prioritizing US costumers (would at least make sense because of the Tax credit)?

besides a shift in strategy to highly prioritize US costumers another very simple explanation could be that long delivery times scare potential new costumers to make a reservation and Tesla wants to change that + have a longer line of costumers just in case conversions are not so good. And of course there is still the holy grail of a very strong production like electrek suggests but i think they would need a whole new line for this and therefore it's not likely at all. (In some leaked Mail Elon suggested the production rate of all vehicles could be 8k/wk at the end of 2018 therefore 6k/wk model 3)

 

[kelevra]

besides a shift in strategy to highly prioritize US costumers another very simple explanation could be that long delivery times scare potential new costumers to make a reservation and Tesla wants to change that + have a longer line of costumers just in case conversions are not so good. And of course there is still the holy grail of a very strong production like electrek suggests but i think they would need a whole new line for this and therefore it's not likely at all. (In some leaked Mail Elon suggested the production rate of all vehicles could be 8k/wk at the end of 2018 therefore 6k/wk model 3)

for the LR, rear wheel drive option the range of possibilities is not thaat wide. The new timeline suggests that Tesla think they will get 60,000 (4 month, weak production - worst case)- 130,000 (6month, strong production - best case) orders from existing US reservation holders.

 

[TheMrX]

I guess it's very bad news.
How could anyone without a reservation possibly get a standard battery car within 6 month??? From my understanding production capacity is quite fixed at 5k/wk for the time being. Even if we would produce an average of 5k/wk starting from now and all deliveries go to US costumers this would mean Tesla thinks it's possible to get just 130,000 orders from current US reservation holders.
If we factor in Canadian costumers and a lower average production rate this number could drop to 100,000. Of course this is a worst case scenario. In the best case scenario it takes 12 months with an production rate higher than 5k/wk in this period. This could give us a number like 280,000. If we assume that US deliveries are heavily prioritized we could have as much as 250,000 orders from US costumers.
If we further assume that of the 450,000 reservation holders about half let's say 230,000 are from the US and 30,000 cars have already been produced this would mean Tesla would ADD 50,000 new orders in this time.

The reason i think it's bad news is that we now know for a fact that Tesla thinks the conversion rate COULD be bad. (And Elon refused to answer the question about the conversion rate during the CC)
The numbers from the bullish scenario are actually uneducated guessing. Do we have any data like knowing how many reservation holders are from the US or how strongly Tesla is prioritizing US costumers (would at least make sense because of the Tax credit)?

I think it's not THAT bad ; assuming the new reservations rate is a lower number than the output rate (backlog dimishing) at 5000/week and climbing to 10 000/week, they only have to prioritize type of product delivered just as they are doing now with FWD big battery.

Once that FWD big battery backlog is almost depleted, they will switch to AWD and AWD performance. At that point it will give some time to the FWD big battery backlog to replenish. Once AWD and AWD performance is depleted, they can switch to small battery while the AWD and AWD performance backlog is replenishing. And it goes like that all again as time goes by.

Now all that happens while the output pace of production is still increasing over time. They could also extend the delivery delay estimate if things don't turn out the way they hoped.

But I'm beginning to think that from 5000/w to 10 000/week, the gap is going to be a lot easier than from 0 to 5000/w. When every problem is addressed in the 0 to 5000/w in a single line, all you need is to copy/paste that line, the code for the robots is done and there will not be a second fluffbot mistake.

And of course they can copy/paste anywhere in the world to keep Fremont's output just for north america....

So I'm curious about where did you get that '' fact'' ? : ''The reason i think it's bad news is that we now know for a fact that Tesla thinks the conversion rate COULD be bad.''

 

[bdy0627]

Oh boy, the shorts are going to spin this as saying the waiting list conversion rate is tanking. Which is fine for me as I’m going to write some puts tomorrow and I don’t want an up market. But just for tomorrow, the stock price can climb after that.

This is undoubtedly how they will interpret this shortened delivery estimate. I think it's a bad mistake on their part unless they happen to be correct, which seems very unlikely to me. More and more this appears to be setting up to be a very intriguing next 6 months.

 

[bdy0627]

This is HUGE.

As I transfered some cash to my investment account over the weekend I hope I'm not 1 day too late to buy SP on the dip

Here is the bull...

 

[bdy0627]

Or is it actually super bad and take rate is much lower than expected?

I mean, either they magically jumped to 10k/wk or they were totally wrong in their original estimates which assumed 5k/wk by end of Q2... Hmmm....

and here is the bear... It can be taken at face value or spun in some interesting ways.

 

[sundaymorning]

Lots of problems at BMW. Their car stalls while moving.

BMW recalls 312,000 vehicles in U.K. over stalling risk

Mercedes Smart for two engine fire risk.

Mercedes-Benz recalls roughly 43,000 Smart ForTwo cars

The most dangerous f^re risks are the ones that ignite spontaneously.

How dangerous is this, apparently you can drive a Mercedes and if the oil leaks it can catch on fire.

https://www.cars.com/articles/9700-mercedes-benz-mercedes-amg-suvs-recall-alert-1420700033991/

The Problem: In certain driving conditions, if the oil level in the ACS reservoir is below the minimum level, the oil may foam and leak out of the vent holes in the reservoir cap, which in the presence of an ignition source can increase the risk of a fire.

So in an ICE, one wouldn’t even have to run into a brick wall at high speed and somehow this is suppose to be better? Come on Rupert Murdoch, you have to stop protecting your oil interest.

 

[sundaymorning]

Or is it actually super bad and take rate is much lower than expected?

I mean, either they magically jumped to 10k/wk or they were totally wrong in their original estimates which assumed 5k/wk by end of Q2... Hmmm....

Oh boy, the shorts are going to spin this as saying the waiting list conversion rate is tanking. Which is fine for me as I’m going to write some puts tomorrow and I don’t want an up market. But just for tomorrow, the stock price can climb after that.

It could be Tesla is now officially gaming the 200,000th delivery and will be unleashing the 3s come July in mass quantities.

 

[wipster]

Oh boy, the shorts are going to spin this as saying the waiting list conversion rate is tanking. <snip>/QUOTE]

You read my mind!

 

[sundaymorning]

How dangerous is this, apparently you can drive a Mercedes and if the oil leaks it can catch on fire.

https://www.cars.com/articles/9700-mercedes-benz-mercedes-amg-suvs-recall-alert-1420700033991/

The Problem: In certain driving conditions, if the oil level in the ACS reservoir is below the minimum level, the oil may foam and leak out of the vent holes in the reservoir cap, which in the presence of an ignition source can increase the risk of a fire.

So in an ICE, one wouldn’t even have to run into a brick wall at high speed and somehow this is suppose to be better? Come on Rupert Murdoch, you have to stop protecting your oil interest.

The whole big 3 in Germany is on f!re.

Audi recalls 1.2 million cars and SUVs because of fire risk

Do these guys just copy each other and crate fire hazards?

BMW recall 2018: 294,000 3 Series saloons in the UK are at risk of catching fire

Oh wait, gasoline and oil in general are fire hazards.

 

[bambam4171]

Elon on Twitter right now

 

[bambam4171]

And in the reply he writes about new Superchargers

 

[sundaymorning]

6 carriers on a lot full of M3s

Found a LOT of Model 3's in a Tesla lot - Pictures inside

 

[Waiting4M3]

I think it's not THAT bad ; assuming the new reservations rate is a lower number than the output rate (backlog dimishing) at 5000/week and climbing to 10 000/week, they only have to prioritize type of product delivered just as they are doing now with FWD big battery.

Once that FWD big battery backlog is almost depleted, they will switch to AWD and AWD performance. At that point it will give some time to the FWD big battery backlog to replenish. Once AWD and AWD performance is depleted, they can switch to small battery while the AWD and AWD performance backlog is replenishing. And it goes like that all again as time goes by.

Now all that happens while the output pace of production is still increasing over time. They could also extend the delivery delay estimate if things don't turn out the way they hoped.

But I'm beginning to think that from 5000/w to 10 000/week, the gap is going to be a lot easier than from 0 to 5000/w. When every problem is addressed in the 0 to 5000/w in a single line, all you need is to copy/paste that line, the code for the robots is done and there will not be a second fluffbot mistake.

And of course they can copy/paste anywhere in the world to keep Fremont's output just for north america....

So I'm curious about where did you get that '' fact'' ? : ''The reason i think it's bad news is that we now know for a fact that Tesla thinks the conversion rate COULD be bad.''

BTW the non-AWD version is RWD, not FWD.

 

[sundaymorning]

Futures are up big! Likely due to the China US trade news. Dow already up over 200 points, NASDAQ over 50 points, SP16 points. All green.

 

[TheMrX]

BTW the non-AWD version is RWD, not FWD.

ok well ... I really need to go get some sleep then
Thanks!

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla trading at $280.72 in Europe. Futures are all green. Looking to be a solid week ahead.

 

[Tslynk67]

All this talk about the shortened delivery times potentially being bad news, low take-up, cancellations, is total nonsense.

It is simply that the majority of M3 reservation holders want the cheaper car - after all, the M3's biggest marketing point is that it's a Tesla for $35k, and that's what most signed-up for, and these orders will be fulfilled when the scale and margins are available.

I only see positives here.

 

[Papafox]

The combination of macros up and TSLA sitting just above the lower bollinger band is an enticing combination that could be very positive. The shorts will likely try for a mandatory morning dip after the inevitable Monday morning buying at open burst. If shorts can hold TSLA down in the red long enough, traders will take money elsewhere. If the MMD can be defeated with a nice run-up, then Monday could be nice, provided the longs don't let the peak get capped and then walked down methodically. What the longs and shorts should both try to avoid is peaking ("canyoning" for shorts?) too early and then allowing the other side to take command. It'll be interesting!