Or is it actually super bad and take rate is much lower than expected?
I mean, either they magically jumped to 10k/wk or they were totally wrong in their original estimates which assumed 5k/wk by end of Q2... Hmmm....
I guess it's very bad news.
How could anyone without a reservation possibly get a standard battery car within 6 month??? From my understanding production capacity is quite fixed at 5k/wk for the time being. Even if we would produce an average of 5k/wk starting from now and all deliveries go to US costumers this would mean Tesla thinks it's possible to get just 130,000 orders from current US reservation holders.
If we factor in Canadian costumers and a lower average production rate this number could drop to 100,000. Of course this is a worst case scenario. In the best case scenario it takes 12 months with an production rate higher than 5k/wk in this period. This could give us a number like 280,000. If we assume that US deliveries are heavily prioritized we could have as much as 250,000 orders from US costumers.
If we further assume that of the 450,000 reservation holders about half let's say 230,000 are from the US and 30,000 cars have already been produced this would mean Tesla would ADD 50,000 new orders in this time.
The reason i think it's bad news is that we now know for a fact that Tesla thinks the conversion rate COULD be bad. (And Elon refused to answer the question about the conversion rate during the CC)
The numbers from the bullish scenario are actually uneducated guessing. Do we have any data like knowing how many reservation holders are from the US or how strongly Tesla is prioritizing US costumers (would at least make sense because of the Tax credit)?