TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[HG Wells]

I NEED FRESH POWDER!!!

My local pawn shop gave me 140K on my old lamborghini. I got it at 9% too !

 

[Irishjugg]

If I were a long, I would find that a bit distressing. I would hope that Elon, as a fellow shareholder, was in it for the money.

yep, that's why you don't understand this stock, and that's why your short will fail.

That type of thinking drives short term, quarter to quarter pumping that ende up creating stagnant, shitty companies

 

[WarpedOne]

If Electrek is correct, they would fulfill all current reservations including all SRs within 6 months. How else could a brand new SR reservation be fulfilled in 6 months?

Lets try math ... 450.000 reservations @ 20% cancel = 400k orders ... 6 months@4 weeks = 24 weeks => 16k/week.

Short: obviously cancel rate must be around 80% ... 450.000 reservations @ 80% cancel = 90k orders ... 6 months@4 weeks = 24 weeks => 3750/week.
See? Tesla is doomed!!!111

Long: 450.000 are worldwide reservations, Tesla stated this year is NA only (USA + Canada). How many reservations are from NA? One half? 450 * 1/2 @20% cancel = 180k orders ... 7,5k/ week.
See? Tesla is chumming towards world domination.
No kidding.

 

[Reciprocity]

5000 per week is the target end Q2, ramp will continue, not stop. Possible we're at 10k/week by the end of the year, then it all adds-up...

9k/w S3X for sure, but they will need equipment to get to 10k/w Model 3s in 2019. 9k/w exiting 2018 is 450,000 a year. Not bad for a company that did 100k last year.

 

[kbM3]

5000 per week is the target end Q2, ramp will continue, not stop. Possible we're at 10k/week by the end of the year, then it all adds-up...

That would be wonderful and would tie in with Elon’s short squeeze tweets.

My current understanding though is that they are shooting for 6k burst by July and 6k sustained months later. Only after that is optimized, and the line design is refined, make CapEx for line enhancements (or 2nd line) to start ramp to 10k.

I really hope you’re right!

 

[Tslynk67]

I really hope you’re right!

Target has always been 10k, the only time this will change is when they add more manufacturing capacity and increase it.

As ever, it's the timing that we have little idea of

 

[Unpilot]

Now that's a good start for the SP on a Monday!

 

[Unpilot]

I scraped around some old jeans and took my penny jar to the bank...got enough for 1 more share at 281.33

 

[sundaymorning]

Don’t let all the chatter fool you, I don’t believe for a second that shorts believe in what they’re saying. If we get to that 5,000 a week mark, get ready for apocalypse!

 

[NicoV]

Now that's a good start for the SP on a Monday!

Yeah! If that doubles, we’re back where we were last monday!

 

[sundaymorning]

The Dow just crossed 25k. Nasdaq up 74, SP up 22.

 

[MacRocket]

I scraped around some old jeans and took my penny jar to the bank...got enough for 1 more share at 281.33

Well done, let’s hope that’s the last time we see tsla in the $270’s.
Life has a funny way of punishing predictions sometimes though.

 

[ggr]

All this talk about the shortened delivery times potentially being bad news, low take-up, cancellations, is total nonsense.

It is simply that the majority of M3 reservation holders want the cheaper car - after all, the M3's biggest marketing point is that it's a Tesla for $35k, and that's what most signed-up for, and these orders will be fulfilled when the scale and margins are available.

I only see positives here.

Funny how we see the same news, agree that the same articles are FUD, future it's all positive, but have completely different views of the causes and results. I think the acceleration of the low-end model deliveries is because fewer people want them, so once in production they can clear the queue quicker.

Edited to add: price-sensitive customers would like to get their cars while the tax credit is still in full force, so Tesla will produce base models as soon as they can do it while remaining cash-flow positive. They won't use up all of the tax credits on the most expensive models.

 

[jhm]

And in the reply he writes about new Superchargers

View attachment 302618

Hmm, so Musk is agreeing that the M3 LR is higher margin than SR. The difference is 90 miles for $9k. So for the margin to be higher on LR, the specific margin on about $375/kwh for the added range needs to be substantially higher than for the rest of the car. If the pack cost is $125/kWh, this would imply a 66.6% mark up on added range, or $12k in incremental gross profit per vehicle. This makes me wonder what the point is in offering the SR version. Even if the SR was produced at a 20%, which is $7k gross profit per car, why forego the $12k incremental profit of the LR? If demand were to become a growth constraint on the LR, just dropping the price about $4k would double the order rate and preserve $15k gross profit off of $19k. I think we're a few years off from this, but in that time pack cost could drop even further, perhaps below $100/kWh, which would make the tradeoff even less attractive to Tesla.

 

[Mkorpal]

Well done, let’s hope that’s the last time we see tsla in the $270’s.
Life has a funny way of punishing predictions sometimes though.

If I had a share for every time I thought we'd never see price x again, I'd own the damn company outright.

 

[Tslynk67]

Finally pushed through 285 resistance...

 

[ruralectric]

Personally, I think it is shooting in the dark to try to speculate on meaning anymore. I would take it at face value. It seems Tesla is going to be able to meet demand sooner than originally expected.

The longs are going to see this as a great positive that the ramp is obviously going better than expected and they are going to be able make cars faster and sooner than originally thought. The shorts are going to point to this as being evidence that Tesla has lost the vast majority of reservations because of constantly missed timelines, quality issues, executive departures, Elon statements, etc. etc.

Frankly I'm tired to listening to it all. Tesla is going to do what Tesla is going to do. Investors and speculators are going to do and say whatever makes their position stronger. Customers are going to get cars...at some point, and be thrilled with them in the vast majority of cases.

Just give me my car.

Dan

Touche' my friend, on all points. My reservation is on hold because I'm deep in the stock, and I'm really wishing I'd diversified and bought me a flame thrower not thingy about now. Just to blow off a little steam (or rather propane I guess). Enjoy today's bump!

 

[DragonWatch]

Edit: Some times, pictures are worth a thousand words

 

[DurandalAI]

Touche' my friend, on all points. My reservation is on hold because I'm deep in the stock, and I'm really wishing I'd bought me a flame thrower not thingy about now. Enjoy today's bump!

I will trade you mine for 3 shares of TSLA, but I get to open it and use it for incidentals for a week prior to transfer. Plus, I want to get to meet these fabled Space X employees delivering the not flamethrowers.

 

[Unpilot]

U.S. gas prices jump to $3 a gallon