TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jelloslug]

BMW sells 400k+ 3-series every year.

Model 3 has a lower sticker price (w/out tax credits), better 0-60, lower fuel costs, better residual value, and far higher owner satisfaction. The idea that Tesla needs tax credits to create demand is, indeed, curious.

Also, look at the Prius. Self proclaimed experts said that it’s sales would drop off the cliff when the tax credits for hybrids ended. No such thing happened at all even though it was constantly compared to other cars that were thousands less.

 

[Boomer19]

Market action. What are we looking af Monday morning? We have another full trading week until we get q2 delivery and finally see deliveries ramp hard start of q3. Meanwhile we may be exposed like a broken nose all next week.

Been going through lots of forums and lots of people with questions related to short interest, short squeeze, mechanics of short interest, etc.
Tracking short interest

Time to stop bickering over politics and trumps trade war bs and focus on how we get through this vulnerable period so Tesla can do their thing and execute their plan. Strength in numbers people.

 

[AJB0611]

Does anybody have any idea about the china gigafactory. Any special deals? It'll have to be even larger than the gigafactory in Nevada.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

There was a rumor awhile back that there was a piece of empty land outside Shanghai that may be the site. Beyond that we have heard nothing about Gigafactory in China.

 

[AJB0611]

Any ideas on how Tesla will afford it?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Also, look at the Prius. Self proclaimed experts said that it’s sales would drop off the cliff when the tax credits for hybrids ended. No such thing happened at all even though it was constantly compared to other cars that were thousands less.

The popularity of the Prius is very telling. The Model 3 Tesla will stomp it.

 

[sundaymorning]

Any ideas on how Tesla will afford it?

Partnerships, capital raises if necessary. Tencent has been in the conversation for awhile. The factory there does not need to be the same size as the US, 1/3 is good enough. Labor is cheap, land is cheap, and raw material are cheap in China. $1-2 billion can go a long way.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I am not sure making a reservation now gives one the ability to access the full tax credit. You would have to be willing to get an AWD or P model to do that. If you want a $35K version model 3 there is a good chance the FULL credit will be gone with a reservation made today.

By reserving now you get the ability to access the full credit eve if you subsequently choose not to exercise that ability (e.g. by holding out for the $36k model in return for a half tax credit). If, on the other hand, you reserve next quarter you lose that optionality.

 

[sundaymorning]

Market action. What are we looking af Monday morning? We have another full trading week until we get q2 delivery and finally see deliveries ramp hard start of q3. Meanwhile we may be exposed like a broken nose all next week.

Been going through lots of forums and lots of people with questions related to short interest, short squeeze, mechanics of short interest, etc.
Tracking short interest

Time to stop bickering over politics and trumps trade war bs and focus on how we get through this vulnerable period so Tesla can do their thing and execute their plan. Strength in numbers people.

Right now it’s anyone’s guess what the stock will do Monday or the upcoming week. A few chartists here has expressed that there will be a downward channel to $318 where we can expect strong support. If that support breaks then we’re headed lower to test $300. Without any positive news coming from Tesla/tweets from Elon it’s hard to justify the stock moving up from here since many of us are looking at 60 point gains, I would imagine some profit taking (even at $330s it’s still a profit) in order to de-risk before numbers get release in July.

From Monday to Friday I’d like to see some more of last minute EOQ pushes to give bulls a bit of a nudge in confidence. Aside from Elon tweeting, I’d like to see Tesla loading up Model 3 holding areas from Nummi/docks/shipping, crowd source pictures from reddit/TMC of endless M3 on trucks, invites being sent out, VIN reporting, NHTSA registration, etc... basically the usual EOQ things we’ve been seeing but on a higher scale. As of last Friday we saw 1 parking lot with about 800-1,000 Model 3s getting ready for shipment, some reports of invites to configure being sent out, but if the 4-5k number is to be believable/achievable, then we need to see much more of that on a higher scale starting on Monday. If not, then I would imagine careful bulls being sidelined, momentum traders being sidelined, and shorts to keep shorting.

As an investor since 2012, I have kicked myself so many times for not taking a bit off the table after a nice runup. Elon has let me down 3 quarters now, yet I still somehow have a bit of hesitant faith. Will he let me down again? Or will this be the beginning of the short burn of the century? I think the smart thing to do is to have some dry powder set aside, not let greed get in the way until numbers are shown. On the other hand, if you don’t want to miss out then you have to be somewhat bought in and prepared to harvest if we do meet numbers.

What’s best for me right now is not so much watching what the stock does Monday, but rather what signs are coming out of Nummi Monday thru Friday. I will not be 100% invested before numbers are shown, I’m playing it a bit safe this time and waiting for the cards to be dealt. If Elon gives me a good hand, it’ll be time to go “all in”, if not, then it won’t be as painful short term.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

People concerned about getting the full tax credit would have made a reservation a long time ago.

Yes, that is precisely the bear demand theory. The tax credit (among other things) pulled forward a lot of demand.

 

[sundaymorning]

Yes, that is precisely the bear demand theory. The tax credit (among other things) pulled forward a lot of demand.

To counter that, those who realize they’re not getting the tax credit, has already cancelled. It won’t matter what you say, he says/she says here on TMC, it won’t change the fact that we have demand for another 2 years. If you’re short, be prepared to stay short for two years to find out where this rocket might be headed or this space shuttle to land. We won’t know the answer to that for another 2 years, minimum.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Also, look at the Prius. Self proclaimed experts said that it’s sales would drop off the cliff when the tax credits for hybrids ended. No such thing happened at all even though it was constantly compared to other cars that were thousands less.

That is certainly a valid point.

 

[Causalien]

LOL. I think I might be running out of pop corns. Was saving this for 1 week later for the short burn. Sometimes, I wish TSLA is just a boring stock that rises steadily so I don't have to constantly keep on top of the news.

But hey, my own fault for getting into it for the pop corn value.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Right now it’s anyone’s guess what the stock will do Monday or the upcoming week. A few chartists here has expressed that there will be a downward channel to $318 where we can expect strong support. If that support breaks then we’re headed lower to test $300. Without any positive news coming from Tesla/tweets from Elon it’s hard to justify the stock moving up from here since many of us are looking at 60 point gains, I would imagine some profit taking (even at $330s it’s still a profit) in order to de-risk before numbers get release in July.

I would think some profits have already been taken, and now it's more relevant to start loading back up. At least, I sold at 345 and 365, and then I bought at 335 yesterday.

I will definitely buy more if continues to drop.

 

[sundaymorning]

I would think some profits have already been taken, and now it's more relevant to start loading back up. At least, I sold at 345 and 365, and then I bought at 335 yesterday.

I will definitely buy more if continues to drop.

I don’t disagree with uour decision to buy. At the moment buying on the dip is likely a better strategy than on a rise that can potentially get riskier if Tesla does not pump out cars on all cylinders the next 6-8 days.

At a rate of 5,000 cars a week we should be seeing around 700-800 new M3s on holding lots every single day next week. Last Friday was a good start to finding a holding lot of 800-1000 M3s (yet the stock took a hit by end of day due to selling pressure), although there’s noway to tell when the selling ends or the buying starts, having some dry powder to see what Tesla does Monday thru Friday before a definitive buy sets in is much smarter than buying/selling without solid proof. The amount of money on the table short/bulls buying is ridiculously high on both sides, there’s lots to gain and lots to lose short term from both sides of the trade. In order to make a good call and come out on top short term, we have to consider paying attention to all crowd sourced evidence or lack of it...Of course one has to go with their gut, and if your gut tells you they are producing 4.5-5k then buying now is a great decision. But so far, there are little evidence to show we are pumping consistent 500/day, other than Elon’s tweet which states “demonstration of 500 at all parts of the entire system” as of last week.

Going forward, starting Monday, i would like to see more convincing evidence/photos of at least one more lot filled with M3s. Same goes with Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday, Friday, etc.

 

[avoigt]

Reminds me of Lexus. Their service center was legendary in the early 90s, now they’re just making profits hand over fist.

As an investor I cheer that step and as an owner the $100 a year do not bother me.

Just think about what you save in terms of fuel and maintenance as well as all of the sudden free of charge new features emerging like summon.

No, really this is just a fully acceptable move to keep the costs structure aligned.

 

[Boomer19]

Any ideas on how Tesla will afford it?

i heard they were going to borrow from UAW pension plan, also the donald spoke with Xi and got them a sweet real estate deal. what is the implication?

 

[mongo]

But so far, there are little evidence to show we are pumping consistent 500/day, other than Elon’s tweet which states “demonstration of 500 at all parts of the entire system” as of last week.

Data point of 1/2: number of car carriers seen in the lot is favorable toward the high side of production rate. (Based on various assumed constants)

 

[Chickenlittle]

As an investor I cheer that step and as an owner the $100 a year do not bother me.

Just think about what you save in terms of fuel and maintenance as well as all of the sudden free of charge new features emerging like summon.

No, really this is just a fully acceptable move to keep the costs structure aligned.

Also many not reporting that basic internet service will remain free after 4 years of ownership. I suspect they will need to replace browser

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't think they have the tax credit taper issue.

How is it an issue, it hasn’t even happened yet. Like literally.

Here’s another little fact for you, only US purchasers are potentially affected by that. And only those who are over reaching financially to purchase the car, who were never going to get the full credit anyway. That’s a small number of the current half million reservationists.

It’s reasonable to play the what if game as long as you keep things in context, possess a modicum of common sense, and realize worst case what ifs rarely happen.

I assure you Mr. Finance Guy, the tapering of the US EV tax credit program will not pose any kind of short or long term problem to Tesla. Tesla already won, you just don’t know it yet.

I realize you won’t believe what I just typed and will brush it aside. That’s okay. You’ll eventually come around or you won’t and are just part of the group of people who aren’t suppose to get it.