TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

The usual 100k shares per minute.
They'll run out...

 

[W84M3]

So all tech stocks have a run up in the last 24 hours and we are $42 from market open yesterday. This makes zero sense.

 

[mongo]

So all tech stocks have a run up in the last 24 hours and we are $42 from market open yesterday. This makes zero sense.

Don't look at market open, it was a gap up due to Q2 report. Instead, look at the previous day's close.

 

[HG Wells]

Down 13
WOW

 

[Unpilot]

Buying opportunity?

 

[Tslynk67]

Well it's not like we haven't been here before, is it... It will come back up, just a matter of when.

 

[mongo]

Well it's not like we haven't been here before, is it... It will come back up, just a matter of when.

I hate the 4th of July (so far...)

 

[yngwie_2012]

it looks like nobody believes Elon about the coming short burn of the century

 

[stef]

Buying opportunity?

What else?
... I heard only good news recently, and the “nullification” was expected.
For me is a yes, loading some more.

 

[yngwie_2012]

Nasdaq down -0,04%, Tsla down -4%

 

[Waiting4M3]

So even though I am a long I have to wait till march to celebrate on the graves of the shorts?

Definition of a long, no?

 

[yngwie_2012]

Longs are on vacation, Shorts are busy drivin stock down )

 

[ProtomanX]

Bought 200+ shares at 320. Hopefully this will be the cheapest

 

[Dwdnjck]

You're adorable...

Adorable.or ignorable?

 

[neroden]

So when is the "short burn of the century" coming according to Musk? This week?

This coming Sunday would be three weeks from when he made his announcement.

 

[Waiting4M3]

That seems a little optimistic to me, but certainly possible. Here is the history of quarterly production along with the average per week and the growth:

Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018
Production 260 2425 9766 28578
AVG/Week 20 187 751 2198
Change 933% 403% 293%

If we drop growth down to about 200% this quarter, which follows the pattern, that would put production around 58,000 for the quarter, which is an average of 4,462 per week. Is Elon's guidance of 6,000 by the end of August a sustained rate? We surely hope so, but that has not been the pattern. His guidance has clearly been for a max weekly rate that then takes several months to sustain. This time seems like it could be different, at least to me.
I would go a little more conservative, with expectations of 5,000 sustained in September with a weekly burst of 6,000 in the very last week of August. Sustained rate of 6,000 perhaps by November?

Someone pointed out an interesting pattern. Multiply last week of each quarter's production by ~13 (wks) and increase that slightly and you get the next quarter's production:

Q4 2017 last week 700 cars * 13 = 9,100 cars in Q1 2018
Q1 2018 last week 2,000 cars * 13 = 26,000 cars in Q2 2018

projecting this out

Q2 2018 last week 5,000 cars * 13 = 65,000 cars in Q3 2018, or a little more?

 

[defc0n]

Bought 200+ shares at 320. Hopefully this will be the cheapest

Probably pretty good. I was predicting 316-320. Beyond that, harder for me to say.

 

[jelloslug]

I think his theory isn't very convincing. As a short one may argue that it's not us, that is trying to starve Teslas access to the capital markets, but Tesla starved it by themselves. You simply can't announce capex of 3+ billion for 2018 with 3.3 billion liquidity on hand, when you know you need 1 billion or so in cash reserves and are not 110%, sure that you'll end the year with a full-year net profit. How is that supposed to work without further reduction of CapEx? Yes, you can reduce CapEx spending, but that slows down your future growth prospects. If your future growth prospects had already been priced in, this may reduce your stock price, which makes a capital raise more expensive, so you can raise less, which slows your future ... the point is: Reflexivity theorie works in both directions.

If you are living in the best of all times (plenty of money searching for investments, low interest rates, first to sell luxury goods in a trending EV market, automotive cycle running longer than usual, subsidised in all major markets) and your company goes broke because a single capital raise goes wrong or you can't repay a certain bond, you company was overleveraged to the teeth. In such a case it's not the fault of some shorts. If your company has a fundamentally sound business, most shorts will simply disappear, since there's no money to be made. If shorts are spreading provable lies, sue them. it may take quite some time until a decision is made, but it's a pretty strong point to make.

Do you really think that Tesla is planning a 3 billion dollar project without having the funding in place?

 

[Tenable]

Probably pretty good. I was predicting 316-320. Beyond that, harder for me to say.

I wouldn't sweat it TT promised 400 by weeks end.

 

[neroden]

So all tech stocks have a run up in the last 24 hours and we are $42 from market open yesterday. This makes zero sense.

I'd like to remind everyone that there was a bear raid last July 4th weekend and so I predicted another bear raid this July 4th weekend, and that it is playing out exactly as I predicted. If I had dry powder, I would be buying more. (I do not.)